Grotewold wrote:Winkelman notes that if Cliff Lee had duplicated his 2013 this year, per WAR, we'd be three games out of the second wild card. A replacement-level LF gets you within one.

(I know, I know.)

He's the most wildly optimistic person on the planet.

Except when it comes to Ruf

Howards house in clearwater?

Grotewold wrote:Except when it comes to Ruf

shocker

ReadingPhilly wrote:

Grotewold wrote:Except when it comes to Ruf

shocker

Better not with those fat hands. He could be up for felony assault.

jamiethekiller wrote:Howards house in clearwater?

a/k/a The House That Rube Built

Bucky wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:Howards house in clearwater?

a/k/a The House That Rube Built

It's a short walk to the beach, but Howard prefers to try to drive.

sydnor wrote:I think we're too quick to dismiss the several different markers that show Brown is capable/knows how to hit. I saw ashton mention that it was obvious that he wasn't great even in the minors. Bullshit. He's not the same thing as Anthony Hewitt, he's just not.

In the minors, Brown’s ISO was only over .200 for that 60 game stretch in Reading (.280). Prior, his career minor league ISO was well below .150 and after that 60 game stretch his ISO for his remaining time in the minors hovered around .150. His minor league career essentially has him as .150 ISO power who got hot for two months.

Major league pitchers figured him out after May last season, pitching him low and away. His adjustments to their approach, to swing at pitches he can reach and lay off the low and away stuff, have resulted in a lack of power and weak ground balls... one of the highest ground ball rates in the majors. While not an utter bust like Hewitt, there isn't much throughout his career (minors and majors) to indicate he is more than a 4th/5th OF bat (a JMJ type with poor defense).

CFP wrote:

Grotewold wrote:Winkelman notes that if Cliff Lee had duplicated his 2013 this year, per WAR, we'd be three games out of the second wild card. A replacement-level LF gets you within one.

(I know, I know.)

He's the most wildly optimistic person on the planet.

I go back and forth between thinking he wants a job with the team, and thinking he's just being a contrarian like a lot of smart weird guys around that age. Either way, the "everything's actually super" message has become pretty grating.

Grotewold wrote:Winkelman notes that if Cliff Lee had duplicated his 2013 this year, per WAR, we'd be three games out of the second wild card. A replacement-level LF gets you within one.

(I know, I know.)

If GIo Gonzalez duplicated his year last year and Zimmerman and Harper didn't miss half the year, the Phillies would be 46 games out of 1st.

If Medlen and Beachey didn't get TJS and Uggla was replaced with replacement level all year, the Phillies would be 33 games out of 2nd.

If Matt Harvey...... And so on.

That kind of shit is pointless wanking.

Phan In Phlorida wrote:While not an utter bust like Hewitt, there isn't much throughout his career (minors and majors) to indicate he is more than a 4th/5th OF bat (a JMJ type with poor defense).

what the? oh, wait, I get it "/PiP"

This may be the single most bald faced lie/misconstruction of facts ever put forth on this board. Again, I'm not arguing that Dom Brown should be given more of a lease or that he's likely to turn out to be much. But to rewrite his minor league career is utter revisionist history.

2008 as a 20 year old in Lakewood's terrible hitters park, he puts up an .800 OPS. young for the league. It was built more on a very high obp, but it's not like that's a bad thing, and a lower ISO for a 20 year old growing into his body is completely part of the prospect projection.
2009 as a 21 year old in Clearwater's terrible hitters park, he puts up a .900 OPS, again, young for his league, and by the way, he has over a .200 ISO during this time. 60 games indeed.
2009 as a 21 year old and now very young for his league in Reading, he puts up an .800 OPS, and his ISO is at .170.

So going into 2010, the most amazing prospect season we've seen from a hitter in a while, he was already thought of quite highly and due to the merits of his play. number 48 prospect in BA after 2008. Number 15 in 2009. Again, with merit. This wasn't some high draft pick toolshed who was okay and might put things together. This dude was killing it.

Then, in 2010 he does the following:
2010 - .993 OPS in a hitters park in reading as a 22 year old young for his league, crazy high ISO
2010 - .951 OPS in a neutralish park in LHV as a 22 year old and again very young for his league.

He hasn't worked out and did not justify briefly being labeled the number one prospect in the game. Duh. He probably won't work out. But to pretend that the signs were there is foolish. It's okay that a prospect doesn't work out.

If you guys want to waste intellectual and emotional capital on Dom, be my guest. You'll be able to ask him about it all personally in a couple of years when you stop by the car wash where he'll be working.

Remember people were freaking out the Phillies were going to trade him for Bautista.....good times

Ace Rothstein wrote:Remember people were freaking out the Phillies were going to trade him for Bautista.....good times

That's some serious pp shit.

Found a video of Opening Day 1994 at the old Mile High Stadium. Forgot how weird it was playing there. Snow, pandas, Wheels already complaining about Coors Field before it opens....

BigEd76 wrote:Found a video of Opening Day 1994 at the old Mile High Stadium. Forgot how weird it was playing there. Snow, pandas, Wheels already complaining about Coors Field before it opens....

8 runs for the Phils in the 8th inning on 2 hits.

Murph dud tweeted a link to this article this morning:

http://theatlantic.com/entertainment/ar ... ra/379443/

It's about the change in the strike zone since pitch f/x cameras were installed in all of the stadiums and correlates it with the drop in offense across baseball.

It’s not the sort of accomplishment that ESPN is likely to crow about, but Philadelphia Phillies center-fielder Ben Revere is on track to set an astonishing baseball record—a mark that says as much about the game today as Barry Bonds’s 73 home runs said about the swollen biceps that defined the early 21st century. Revere is currently batting just over .313, higher than any other player in the National League. That figure would match the lowest batting title in the NL's 138-year history and the fourth lowest in baseball since 1900.

For both right- and left-handed batters, the strike zone has both narrowed and deepened. Since 2008, the strike zone has grown by about 30 square inches around a hitter's knees [see graph]. That is the equivalent of about five full baseballs placed side-by-side, according to Mills' research.

Since umpires opened up the basement of the strike zone, pitchers haven’t just moved in. They’ve changed their permanent residence, painted the walls, and opened a co-op. The game of baseball has moved considerably closer to the plate in many ways ...

The share of pitches thrown less than 2.5 feet over the plate (i.e.: a “low” pitch) has grown every year since 2009.
In 2007, "low" pitches were 17 percent more common than higher pitches. By 2013, they were 43 percent more common.
The sinker, a fastball pitch that breaks downward, has grown from 35 percent of all pitches in 2007 to 38 percent today.
Hitters have swung at low pitches at a higher rate every year since 2009.
As the strikes moved down, the strikeouts went up. Swinging strikeouts are up 11 percent since 2008. Called strikeouts (on third strikes without a swing) are up 66 percent. The entire increase in strikeouts is happening on pitches between 18 and 24 inches off the ground.

swishnicholson wrote:8 runs for the Phils in the 8th inning on 2 hits.

Munoz: .1 IP, 0 H, 3 R (1 earned), 2 BB, 0 K, WP
Holmes: .1 IP, 1 H, 4 R (1 earned), 3 BB, 0 K, WP

Munoz:
Eisenreich F8
Stocker BB
Tom Marsh (wow) E6
Dykstra BB

Holmes:
Duncan 2-run 2B (6-6)
Jordan RBI 4-3 (7-6)
Hollins BB
Daulton BB
WP (8-6)
Thompson BB

Blair:
Eisenreich 3-run E7 (11-6)
Stocker BB
Marsh RBI single (12-6)
Dykstra 4-3

According to the fancy pants advanced stats, Jimmy Rollins is the second best SS in all the world. He only has 55 RBI though so clearly these advanced stats are flawed.

His defensive stats are really good this year.

I wonder if all the shifting around teams do skew the advanced defensive stats. How can a guy go from fairly lousy to outstanding from one year to the next? Defense doesn't shift that much in real life I don't think.

What do you think of the idea of signing Cuddyer for next year? Coming off an injury and being old (I know, crazy leap for this management team to sign), he probably won't command a long term deal and while in transition, we might catch lightning in a bottle for a couple of seasons while we transition. Conceivably, we're only going to be able to sign one position player and one pitcher most likely. He gives you RH power in a corner OF spot and has that veteranosity the brass loves.