smitty wrote:Not sure where to post this but here might be the most appropriate.

Phylan wrote:I just think that the phenomenon is a bit overstated. Outside of Dave Cameron being a douchebag and the Fangraphs "PLAYER WILL REGRESS" phoned-in special, most of the saber-inclined writers I read nowadays are well aware of the limitations they face, of what they know and don't know, and, if anything, are overly-apologetic about the state of advanced statistics. On the other hand I find that a lot of people clamoring at them for not being "open-minded" are not so much seeking open-mindedness, but rather want their counterpoints accepted uncritically to allow a conclusion that doesn't conflict with their perception.

I was thinking about this mostly because Kevin Goldstein read a listener email on the July 4th B-Pro podcast that was basically a laundry list of "have advanced stats people considered the possibility that [superficially sensible theory with zero supporting evidence offered]!?" Each of those can and should be evaluated on their own merits, but it's not close-minded to not take them at face value if the person asserting them has nothing to back it up with. Jeff Passan did the same thing to Joe Sheehan on Twitter, basically because Sheehan said there is no "pitching with a lead" skill independent of the pitching skill itself and Passan had a big baby fit about how saber guys are close-minded bla bla bla. I think the takeaway for Passan and people who agreed with him was "saber-y jerks don't take dissenting opinions seriously!" instead of, realistically "saber-y jerks don't immediately accept my unsupported assertion," and I think that happens a lot, and that advanced statistics takes a lot of unnecessary shit because of that.

And like I said, I don't always trust the motivation of someone like Passan in a case like this. Is it really "consider this! have an open mind?" If Sheehan goes ahead and does a shitload of research (btw I'm not a big Sheehan fan either, this is just an example) and still comes up with no evidence for what Passan is suggesting, is Passan going to go "well, interesting, never mind then," or is he going to continue to insist that his perception necessarily has predictive value? In a lot of cases I think it's the latter.

Hopefully that made any sense at all

my cousin mose wrote:i've always thought of myself as a man first, and foremost.

Like most of what I write, I’m not sure what the larger point is.

But I’d liken this season to 1984 more than anything else. Coming off a season in which they added another No. 1 starter and did quite well with an extremely old roster (Cliff Lee is John Denny in this metaphor), the Phillies paid the price for their lack of youth the following season, as the Wheeze Kids dropped to .500. Like this team, those Phillies were built on a philosophy of getting guys who were good five or ten years ago, or at least I assume they were, because I can’t think of another good reason to go into the mid-1980s with two key pitchers also having been key pitchers on the 1969 Miracle Mets.

CFP wrote:I don't jam it down people's throats like I would have four years ago.

phdave wrote:"we're smarter than people who run baseball teams".

my cousin mose wrote:http://crashburnalley.com/2012/07/25/please-dont-trade-for-chase-headley/

my cousin mose wrote:

my cousin mose wrote:http://crashburnalley.com/2012/07/25/please-dont-trade-for-chase-headley/

We don’t disagree with each other much here at Crashburn Alley. It’s nice most of the time, because we get along much better and agreeing with each other makes us feel smart. I bring this up because, for the first time in ages, I don’t agree with something Bill said.

I have a confession to make: As I write this, I’ve been up more than 24 hours straight, so this might make even less sense than usual. Which, I suspect, is how y’all like it.

Sleep deprivation is a fascinating experience. Two years ago, when I was in grad school, I wrote two 25-page research papers in four days, each in one massive sunset-to-sunrise binge, one on Thursday night and one on Sunday. I woke up around 11 a.m. on Thursday and went to sleep at about 2 in the morning on Saturday, then woke up around 10 a.m. on Sunday and went to sleep at around 1 in the afternoon on Monday. Pulling a 39-hour waking period and a 27-hour waking period in one long weekend does bizarre things to the mind, believe you me. While at the train station on Monday morning, on my way to turn my final paper in, a bird flew overhead and its shadow passed over me. I believed I was under attack and flipped out, nearly punching an unsuspecting stranger in the face. Hardly a Great Moment in Baumannian Savoir Faire.

Yes. I, too, would rather pay big for a third baseman than an outfielder. But frankly, I’d just as soon try to get someone that every team in the league isn’t chasing. Failing that, just pick up a scrap heap guy to keep the seat warm until a better option presents itself.

Finally, if the Phillies trade for Headley, say, tomorrow, and hang on to Pence and Shane Victorino, they’ll have the frattiest lineup of all time. They could, on days where Carlos Ruiz rests, field a starting nine of Shane, Chase, Chase, Ryan, Hunter, Jimmy, Laynce, Erik and Cole. That’s not a baseball team. That’s next fall’s rush class at the Wake Forest chapter of Sig Ep. They’d have to change everyone’s walk-up music to “Crazy Game of Poker” by O.A.R. and change the uniform to a pink polo shirt, khaki shorts and boat shoes. They’d have to outlaw any beer other than Natty Light at the CBP concessions stands. But the tailgating would probably be a little better-organized and we’d get t-shirts with big pictures and pithy slogans on the back for every game. So maybe fielding a team of frat boys wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Probably not important from a baseball perspective, but worth noting nonetheless.