Baumannisms

Re: Baumannisms

Postby phdave » Fri Jun 29, 2012 15:14:25

To answer your second question, allow me to offer, for your consideration, the federal penitentiary in Florence, Colorado. This is the highest-security prison in the United States, housing such luminaries as Zacarias Moussaoui, 1993 World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef, the Unabomber, FBI mole Robert Hanssen and, for a time, Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh. Prisoners are kept in a poured concrete cell with concrete furniture and only a four-inch-wide window to the outside. That’s the prison they put people in who either 1) have committed the most heinous crimes or 2) have a history of escaping from prison.

Amaro and Manuel’s jobs, I think, are even more secure than that.
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Re: Baumannisms

Postby CFP » Fri Jun 29, 2012 15:39:16

Baumann kind of reminds me of Bill Lyon, with none of the talent whatsoever

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby The B1G Piece » Fri Jun 29, 2012 16:32:48

Guy seems like a real winner.

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby CFP » Fri Jun 29, 2012 17:05:08

phdave wrote:
To answer your second question, allow me to offer, for your consideration, the federal penitentiary in Florence, Colorado. This is the highest-security prison in the United States, housing such luminaries as Zacarias Moussaoui, 1993 World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef, the Unabomber, FBI mole Robert Hanssen and, for a time, Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh. Prisoners are kept in a poured concrete cell with concrete furniture and only a four-inch-wide window to the outside. That’s the prison they put people in who either 1) have committed the most heinous crimes or 2) have a history of escaping from prison.

Amaro and Manuel’s jobs, I think, are even more secure than that.


That can't be real.

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby MoBettle » Fri Jun 29, 2012 17:10:49

CFP wrote:Baumann kind of reminds me of Bill Lyon, with none of the talent whatsoever


that's high praise
Two days later I get a text back that says I'm a basketball player and a businessman, not a Thundercat.

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby CFP » Fri Jun 29, 2012 17:12:46

I actually guess I meant Conlin after looking at it further with those types of comparisons. So Conlin with none of the talent.

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby phdave » Thu Jul 05, 2012 09:51:23

I disagree with a lot of things Buster Olney and Jon Heyman say about player evaluation and their normative stances on the game, but I consider both to be trustworthy breaking news reporters, even where unnamed sources are involved. I’d trust them over Amaro.
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Re: Baumannisms

Postby my cousin mose » Thu Jul 05, 2012 10:33:55

CFP wrote:
phdave wrote:
To answer your second question, allow me to offer, for your consideration, the federal penitentiary in Florence, Colorado. This is the highest-security prison in the United States, housing such luminaries as Zacarias Moussaoui, 1993 World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef, the Unabomber, FBI mole Robert Hanssen and, for a time, Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh. Prisoners are kept in a poured concrete cell with concrete furniture and only a four-inch-wide window to the outside. That’s the prison they put people in who either 1) have committed the most heinous crimes or 2) have a history of escaping from prison.

Amaro and Manuel’s jobs, I think, are even more secure than that.


That can't be real.

dude i choked on the first 10 commas
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Re: Baumannisms

Postby phdave » Fri Jul 06, 2012 16:53:03

When I was a freshman in high school, my marching band did a parade in Williamsburg, Virginia, which was really just an excuse to spend a long weekend at Busch Gardens and Water Country USA. At Water Country, there’s a massive waterslide that you go down, four people to a raft. The group I went down with included two friends of mine: Dave, who weighed about 100 pounds, and Brandon, who weight about three times that. So we get to a particularly steep curve, and by chance, Brandon’s side of the raft takes the inside and Dave’s takes the outside. The weight difference between the two caused us to take this turn with the raft completely vertical relative to the slide, the action of which sent Dave airborne, and had he not grabbed the handholds, would likely have thrown him over the side of the slide and sent him tumbling about 50 feet to his death.

Or so it seemed at the time to the terrified 15-year-old me.

Anyway, if we could somehow game it so that Juan Pierre got pitched out of the raft and over the edge of the waterslide, that’d be cool.
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Re: Baumannisms

Postby td11 » Fri Jul 06, 2012 17:02:08

my hs english teacher would have an aneurysm reading that
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Re: Baumannisms

Postby smitty » Fri Jul 06, 2012 17:06:42

It sounds like he was in quite the marching band. Bet he and his bros drove the women wild.

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby SK790 » Fri Jul 06, 2012 18:24:50

started reading that an hour ago. i just woke up after reading about the fat friend.
I like teh waether

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby ReadingPhilly » Sun Jul 08, 2012 19:31:57

Is the exaggeration of the importance of clubhouse leadership another outgrowth of sports as proxy for war?

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby smitty » Mon Jul 09, 2012 13:15:42

Not sure where to post this but here might be the most appropriate. Russell Carlton, who left BP for a consultant job with a MLB team, just came back to the site. His first article was great I thought. Entitled "Hire Joe Morgan", he really gets to the heart of a lot of the matter of studying baseball in my view.

My goal in writing this letter isn't to say that you were right all along about sabermetrics. In fact, Mr. Morgan, I still disagree with you on plenty of issues, most notably in that I believe sabermetrics can offer a lot to the game of baseball. I’ve come to the conclusion that sabermetrics is a young, toolsy prospect. There’s a lot of potential there to be a game-changer, but maybe, just maybe, there’s something to be gained by sitting down and listening to a wise man who’s been around for a while.

Mr. Morgan, I was arrogant and believed that I had the power to answer all questions. I indulged in the idea that someone who didn't speak about baseball in the same language that I did was somehow beneath me. I delighted in pointing out your flaws while ignoring my own. And yes, I laughed along with that website when it made fun of you.

For this, Mr. Morgan, I am sorry, and I humbly request your forgiveness.
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Re: Baumannisms

Postby The B1G Piece » Mon Jul 09, 2012 13:21:04

Sliddddeeerrrssssss

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby phdave » Mon Jul 09, 2012 13:55:47

If I'm honest, I've always considered myself a writer primarily, not a stats guy.
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Re: Baumannisms

Postby my cousin mose » Mon Jul 09, 2012 14:02:08

i've always thought of myself as a man first, and foremost.
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Re: Baumannisms

Postby Phylan » Tue Jul 10, 2012 15:21:29

smitty wrote:Not sure where to post this but here might be the most appropriate. Russell Carlton, who left BP for a consultant job with a MLB team, just came back to the site. His first article was great I thought. Entitled "Hire Joe Morgan", he really gets to the heart of a lot of the matter of studying baseball in my view.

My goal in writing this letter isn't to say that you were right all along about sabermetrics. In fact, Mr. Morgan, I still disagree with you on plenty of issues, most notably in that I believe sabermetrics can offer a lot to the game of baseball. I’ve come to the conclusion that sabermetrics is a young, toolsy prospect. There’s a lot of potential there to be a game-changer, but maybe, just maybe, there’s something to be gained by sitting down and listening to a wise man who’s been around for a while.

Mr. Morgan, I was arrogant and believed that I had the power to answer all questions. I indulged in the idea that someone who didn't speak about baseball in the same language that I did was somehow beneath me. I delighted in pointing out your flaws while ignoring my own. And yes, I laughed along with that website when it made fun of you.

For this, Mr. Morgan, I am sorry, and I humbly request your forgiveness.


"Sabermetrics" in some form or other is not young or undeveloped. This guy appears to be apologizing for either a lack of self-criticism or incuriousness, which is a problem with him, not "sabermetrics."

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby smitty » Tue Jul 10, 2012 15:39:47

Phylan wrote:
smitty wrote:Not sure where to post this but here might be the most appropriate. Russell Carlton, who left BP for a consultant job with a MLB team, just came back to the site. His first article was great I thought. Entitled "Hire Joe Morgan", he really gets to the heart of a lot of the matter of studying baseball in my view.

My goal in writing this letter isn't to say that you were right all along about sabermetrics. In fact, Mr. Morgan, I still disagree with you on plenty of issues, most notably in that I believe sabermetrics can offer a lot to the game of baseball. I’ve come to the conclusion that sabermetrics is a young, toolsy prospect. There’s a lot of potential there to be a game-changer, but maybe, just maybe, there’s something to be gained by sitting down and listening to a wise man who’s been around for a while.

Mr. Morgan, I was arrogant and believed that I had the power to answer all questions. I indulged in the idea that someone who didn't speak about baseball in the same language that I did was somehow beneath me. I delighted in pointing out your flaws while ignoring my own. And yes, I laughed along with that website when it made fun of you.

For this, Mr. Morgan, I am sorry, and I humbly request your forgiveness.


"Sabermetrics" in some form or other is not young or undeveloped. This guy appears to be apologizing for either a lack of self-criticism or incuriousness, which is a problem with him, not "sabermetrics."


Yes that's what he's saying. But obviously it's not just him and he is far from the worst example as he recognized the problem and is addressing it.

That's why I put it in this thread because there are guys out there who think they do have all the answers because they read some Saber stuff once and think all studies are flawless and stuff like that.

Sabermetrics are not new. But there is a lot of room for development. A lot of guys who write Saber inclined articles, do so under some sort of deadline and don't consider some important factors. And there are factors that we just don't have enough data or good enough data to include in the study, which weakens the conclusions.

I think the important thing regarding this guy's article is to always have an open mind and never think you have all the answers. I still read Baselball Prospectus and I believe quite a few of its authors are pretty good in this regard. My surfing of other sites though, gives me the impression that there are still many authors who are not there yet. And at times, the folks who write in the comments are even worse.

I think we baseball fans are continuing to improve in our understanding of the game. And the more I see of articles such as the above the better I feel about it.

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Re: Baumannisms

Postby Phylan » Tue Jul 10, 2012 17:21:25

I just think that the phenomenon is a bit overstated. Outside of Dave Cameron being a douchebag and the Fangraphs "PLAYER WILL REGRESS" phoned-in special, most of the saber-inclined writers I read nowadays are well aware of the limitations they face, of what they know and don't know, and, if anything, are overly-apologetic about the state of advanced statistics. On the other hand I find that a lot of people clamoring at them for not being "open-minded" are not so much seeking open-mindedness, but rather want their counterpoints accepted uncritically to allow a conclusion that doesn't conflict with their perception.

I was thinking about this mostly because Kevin Goldstein read a listener email on the July 4th B-Pro podcast that was basically a laundry list of "have advanced stats people considered the possibility that [superficially sensible theory with zero supporting evidence offered]!?" Each of those can and should be evaluated on their own merits, but it's not close-minded to not take them at face value if the person asserting them has nothing to back it up with. Jeff Passan did the same thing to Joe Sheehan on Twitter, basically because Sheehan said there is no "pitching with a lead" skill independent of the pitching skill itself and Passan had a big baby fit about how saber guys are close-minded bla bla bla. I think the takeaway for Passan and people who agreed with him was "saber-y jerks don't take dissenting opinions seriously!" instead of, realistically "saber-y jerks don't immediately accept my unsupported assertion," and I think that happens a lot, and that advanced statistics takes a lot of unnecessary shit because of that.

And like I said, I don't always trust the motivation of someone like Passan in a case like this. Is it really "consider this! have an open mind?" If Sheehan goes ahead and does a shitload of research (btw I'm not a big Sheehan fan either, this is just an example) and still comes up with no evidence for what Passan is suggesting, is Passan going to go "well, interesting, never mind then," or is he going to continue to insist that his perception necessarily has predictive value? In a lot of cases I think it's the latter.

Hopefully that made any sense at all

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