phorever wrote:Trent Steele wrote:Curious: If you made similar assumptions/followed similar process for the rest of the teams in the NL East, what would there win totals be?
good question. i just took a quick glance at the steamer and oliver projections for the braves. the first things i notices is that there are far fewer missing pitcher innings in their list. the second is that it doesn´t look like the steamer-oliver woba, war, and innings projections differences for position players are as dramatic for the braves as they are for the phils. i could easily have overlooked something, but i didn´t see something for the braves as striking as the difference between the steamer and oliver projections for byrd and howard.
straight-up steamer for the braves looks like 81 wins, and i´m guessing the missing inning/pa adjustments would take them to something like 86. a higher baseline, but a smaller upward correction. i´ll try to check it out when i get a chance.
If Steamer projects the Braves to 81 wins, we need a new standard-bearer for projections. They're young, and they're good. We have to deal with that.