Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby Shore » Mon Jan 13, 2014 13:56:05

phorever wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:Curious: If you made similar assumptions/followed similar process for the rest of the teams in the NL East, what would there win totals be?


good question. i just took a quick glance at the steamer and oliver projections for the braves. the first things i notices is that there are far fewer missing pitcher innings in their list. the second is that it doesn´t look like the steamer-oliver woba, war, and innings projections differences for position players are as dramatic for the braves as they are for the phils. i could easily have overlooked something, but i didn´t see something for the braves as striking as the difference between the steamer and oliver projections for byrd and howard.

straight-up steamer for the braves looks like 81 wins, and i´m guessing the missing inning/pa adjustments would take them to something like 86. a higher baseline, but a smaller upward correction. i´ll try to check it out when i get a chance.


If Steamer projects the Braves to 81 wins, we need a new standard-bearer for projections. They're young, and they're good. We have to deal with that.

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby mcare89 » Mon Jan 13, 2014 14:18:58

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 10m

Source: #Phillies sign free-agent IF Ronny Cedeno to minor-league deal with invitation to major-league spring training.


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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby Doll Is Mine » Mon Jan 13, 2014 14:24:10

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby phorever » Mon Jan 13, 2014 14:33:51

Shore wrote:
If Steamer projects the Braves to 81 wins, we need a new standard-bearer for projections. They're young, and they're good. We have to deal with that.


i added up wrong in my head. it´s 83, 11 games better than the phils, but i agree that this is a low number.

for me, this just supports my decision to scale up steamer´s wins.
steamer may have won the last round of overall forecasting, but i´m pretty sure that was a comparison of rate stats prediction systems. a purely automated playing time estimator seems to be a major challenge, but one taken up by some systems in a laudable effort to be as objective as possible.
steamer pretty clearly errs on the low side for playing time.
unless one assumes a team will fill in the playing time gap with replacement or worse (which admittedly is
what the phils did in 2013), upscaling the win totals seems an obvious adjustment to make.
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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby Soren » Mon Jan 13, 2014 16:28:57

http://articles.philly.com/2014-01-12/s ... es-dodgers

Scott Boras, one of the game's most powerful agents, believes the actual appraisal of the deal is worth about $200 million per year to the Phillies. Boras does not have direct knowledge of the Phillies' agreement but has examined similar contracts between other teams and networks.

Boras said the Phillies, like other teams, are taking advantage of a loophole in the sport's collective bargaining agreement.

"Having a percent ownership in the entity prevents them from exposure to revenue-sharing rules," Boras said, "which hurts other teams in the league from receiving the true payment."


The Phillies will possess a 25 percent ownership stake in Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia beginning in 2016. The network's value is unknown, but it ranks as one of the most successful and highly rated regional sports channels. It holds the rights to not only the Phillies but also the Flyers and Sixers. It is the sole regional sports network in the nation's fourth-largest market.

...

The Phillies were a minority owner in Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia when it was created in 1996. They held an estimated 10 percent to 15 percent of the network. The two sides agreed five years later to dissolve that venture; Comcast kept the TV rights, and the Phillies maintained valuable advertising revenue.
Olivia Meadows, your "emotional poltergeist"

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby wwry » Mon Jan 13, 2014 16:40:31

damn. those old super rich dudes sure found a way to make themselves even more money.
ImageImageImageImage

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby Soren » Mon Jan 13, 2014 16:54:29

mostly interested in the increased stake in Comcast Philadelphia and how it lets them bypass revenue sharing
Olivia Meadows, your "emotional poltergeist"

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby 21McBride » Mon Jan 13, 2014 18:49:33

Caught Chase on Missanelli. Pretty clear that he didn't appreciate the line of questioning, esp. Re: clubhouse questions. MM called him reticent and aloof and Chase chuckled a bit, respondeds to Missanelli's thanks with a quick yep.

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby 21McBride » Mon Jan 13, 2014 18:51:23

Caught Chase on Missanelli. Pretty clear that he didn't appreciate the line of questioning, esp. Re: clubhouse questions. MM called him reticent and aloof and Chase chuckled a bit, respondeds to Missanelli's thanks with a quick yep.

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby 21McBride » Mon Jan 13, 2014 19:00:56

Caught Chase on Missanelli. Pretty clear that he didn't appreciate the line of questioning, esp. Re: clubhouse questions. MM called him reticent and aloof and Chase chuckled a bit, respondeds to Missanelli's thanks with a quick yep.

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby Bucky » Mon Jan 13, 2014 19:02:06

i wonder if chase is ever gonna be on missannelli

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby Grotewold » Mon Jan 13, 2014 19:02:49

21McBride wrote:Caught Chase on Missanelli. Pretty clear that he didn't appreciate the line of questioning, esp. Re: clubhouse questions. MM called him reticent and aloof and Chase chuckled a bit, respondeds to Missanelli's thanks with a quick yep.


Whose Chase gonna talk to next Mort Downey Jr

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby phdave » Mon Jan 13, 2014 20:59:11

Bucky wrote:i wonder if chase is ever gonna be on missannelli


If he ever did how would we find out?
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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby 1 » Mon Jan 13, 2014 21:00:14

Yankees friend pal says that his niece works in the WIP building and that Chase was limping. It doesn't matter. PROJECTIONS!!

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby Napalm » Mon Jan 13, 2014 21:31:59

he probably just gone done banging that guys wife/mother/sister

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby Werthless » Mon Jan 13, 2014 22:08:05

Trent Steele wrote:And those aren't dashes, they are negative signs

New Phils slogan.

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby The Dude » Tue Jan 14, 2014 02:22:50

thank goodness missanelli doesn't work for wip
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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby ReadingPhilly » Tue Jan 14, 2014 03:28:59

Steaks says keep an eye on Madson, Chad Gaudin and Lyle Overbay as depth signings.

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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby philliesphhan » Tue Jan 14, 2014 04:42:36

ReadingPhilly wrote:Steaks says keep an eye on Madson, Chad Gaudin and Lyle Overbay as depth signings.


At this point, it's probably just for senimental/porn reasons, but I'd really like Madson back on the team
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Re: Asche to Mouth and other random phillies things

Postby 1 » Tue Jan 14, 2014 07:46:03

The Dude wrote:thank goodness missanelli doesn't work for wip


ha. this guy said chase was on cataldi as well.
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