Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

by **WheelsFellOff** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 08:22:08

He's as awesome as turkey bacon

by **Soren** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 08:29:13

.438/.471/1.156 with 7 HRs in 34 PAs in the homestand for WHOS THAT

by **PTOITWCFTPP** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 08:32:16

Soren wrote:.438/.471/1.156 with 7 HRs in 34 PAs in the homestand for WHOS THAT

Howard really turning it up a notch

by **etched Chaos** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 08:43:01

PTOITWCFTPP wrote:
Soren wrote:.438/.471/1.156 with 7 HRs in 34 PAs in the homestand for WHOS THAT

Howard really turning it up a notch

He's slimmed down and become a lean, mean, homer machine again.

by **phorever** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 09:10:29

JFLNYC wrote:If the standard by which Revere is judged is going to be OPS, then he's always going to be found wanting. .... My point is simply that there's a lot of potential value in a player without a great deal of power or even a particularly high BB Rate (Ichiro is 5.9% for his career, Revere is 5.9% this year), once you factor in base running, defense and positional value.

i said somewhere on this board during the offseason that i was switching from fwar to bwar as my primary numbers-only value estimator. after reading up on the respective calculations, i liked the b-r defense and pitching value metrics better. it so happens that bwar favors revere over mayberry while fwar has it the other way around. make of this what you will.

by **dajafi** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:31:38

Phillies have been running out some lineups lately with six guys in their 20s: Hernandez, Galvis, Dom, Revere, Young/Mayberry, KK/Hamels/Cloyd/'bone. Would guess that hasn't happened since '08, when the Rollins/Utley/Chooch/Werth group was 29...

by **Bill McNeal** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:07:07

by **Shore** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:13:16

JFLNYC wrote:If the standard by which Revere is judged is going to be OPS, then he's always going to be found wanting. I have no idea whether he's going to have a consistently good OBP because of his low BB rate. But if he does, steals bases (avoiding stupid mistakes like getting CS at 3B with 0 outs) and plays plus defense in CF, he will have value which exceeds -- perhaps far exceeds -- what his OPS might suggest. Yesterday is a good example: On base 3 times, but with a SLG of only .333.

From 2000-2009, Ichiro had a .434 SLG, which was tied for 257th for the decade. His .378 OBP tied him for 44th. But when his fielding and base running are factored in, his WAR of 46.9 placed him 10th for the decade. I'm not saying Revere is the next Ichiro. My point is simply that there's a lot of potential value in a player without a great deal of power or even a particularly high BB Rate (Ichiro is 5.9% for his career, Revere is 5.9% this year), once you factor in base running, defense and positional value.

Ichiro's rate stats were suppressed by his home park. His OPS+ (a park-adjusted stat) was tied for 81st, at 118. Revere's career OPS+ is 75. Suzuki was an excellent hitter, Revere a poor one.

Aside from that, WAR is a counting stat. Suzuki had the 6th-most PA in the decade, which is why he's farther up the WAR list than his raw rate stats might indicate.

by **Roger Dorn** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:24:09

Does anyone see Pittsburgh staying in the wild card race all year? Seems like the past few years they have been in the mix until the All-Star break before they begin to tail off. I have no idea what to think of the Nats, they are obviously dealing with some key injuries at the moment but one would think they have to turn it on at some point. The West is interesting because there are 3 pretty solid teams in the DBacks, Giants , and Rockies. I think all 3 have their flaws though and we are currently only a few games back of them.

I'm hoping we at least manage to stay competitive for a Wild Card spot thru most of the season. With Utley and Ruiz coming back soon, and replacing Cloyd with a hopefully improved Lannan, we might have a shot.

by **laf837** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:25:58

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:Bat flip gif searches are fun.

love that flip

by **BigEd76** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:53:00

How about you stick with what actually works. Whoever tells you to throw sidearm.....listen to the other guy

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:07:11

Shore wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:If the standard by which Revere is judged is going to be OPS, then he's always going to be found wanting. I have no idea whether he's going to have a consistently good OBP because of his low BB rate. But if he does, steals bases (avoiding stupid mistakes like getting CS at 3B with 0 outs) and plays plus defense in CF, he will have value which exceeds -- perhaps far exceeds -- what his OPS might suggest. Yesterday is a good example: On base 3 times, but with a SLG of only .333.

From 2000-2009, Ichiro had a .434 SLG, which was tied for 257th for the decade. His .378 OBP tied him for 44th. But when his fielding and base running are factored in, his WAR of 46.9 placed him 10th for the decade. I'm not saying Revere is the next Ichiro. My point is simply that there's a lot of potential value in a player without a great deal of power or even a particularly high BB Rate (Ichiro is 5.9% for his career, Revere is 5.9% this year), once you factor in base running, defense and positional value.

Ichiro's rate stats were suppressed by his home park. His OPS+ (a park-adjusted stat) was tied for 81st, at 118. Revere's career OPS+ is 75. Suzuki was an excellent hitter, Revere a poor one.

Aside from that, WAR is a counting stat. Suzuki had the 6th-most PA in the decade, which is why he's farther up the WAR list than his raw rate stats might indicate.

All of that is true and, as I said, I'm not saying Revere is the next Ichiro. But the main point still stands: A player can be more valuable (and, in some cases, perhaps a lot more valuable) than his OPS would suggest.

by **PTOITWCFTPP** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:13:48

laf837 wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:Bat flip gif searches are fun.

love that flip

Is that guy pointing at the bat flip or the ass of the brunette?

by **CFP** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:31:18

Uh oh, Aumont is gonna get Schwim'd

by **Wheels Tupay** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 13:09:42

Yeah, but at least Aumont is already Canadian.

by **bury me** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 13:47:12

PTOITWCFTPP wrote:
laf837 wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:Bat flip gif searches are fun.

love that flip

Is that guy pointing at the bat flip or the ass of the brunette?

omg, GREAT find. the dude isn't even watching the AB

by **smitty** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 14:58:38

Judging Revere solely by OPS or OPS + misses the point I believe. He has no power. We all know that. JFLY nailed it. No sense going over this again. Revere is a young guy who has a chance to be fairly valuable. He is close right now if he continues to get on base after a horrible April.

He needs to learn how to slide.

Aumont should stop listening to everyone and just throw some damn strikes.

by **Stay_Disappointed** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 16:17:14

Have the value of any young Phils improved enough to trade for Stanton yet?

by **smitty** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 16:25:04

Our disabled list is full already. Lol. Omg.

by **etched Chaos** » Thu Jun 06, 2013 16:33:19

Warszawa wrote:Have the value of any young Phils improved enough to trade for Stanton yet?

Marlins would probably sell their soul for Dom, he's out Giancarloing Giancarlo right now.

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