I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

by **JFLNYC** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 07:16:12

This goes to Floppy's earlier point about Rube's choices on allocation of resources:

Suppose, for example, that last off season, instead of investing heavily in Papelbon, he'd reallocated the funds to hitting and signed Beltran instead (and gone the cheaper closer, e.g., Nathan route)? Then, what if he'd followed that up this past off season with signing Swisher (who, btw, has 9 walks in his first 59 PA this year)? No one wants to lose draft picks, but with the core continuing to age, might that strategy have made more sense (especially with Utley, Halladay and Chooch in the final year of their respective contracts)? I don't know about anyone else, but I'd feel a whole lot better about this team's chances with Beltran and Swisher in the middle of the lineup.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I'm just saying that it's not as if Rube hasn't had his chances to improve the lineup beyond a signing like Delmon Young. And draft picks are great, but by the time the guys we draft next get to the majors, Utley, Howard, Rollins, Chooch, Halladay and Lee will be distant memories.

by **etched Chaos** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 08:07:17

Ah the bliss of monkeyboy taking a small sample size and using it to justify his own predictions, yay for baseball shortsightedness.

by **Grotewold** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 08:41:11

JFLNYC wrote:This goes to Floppy's earlier point about Rube's choices on allocation of resources:

Suppose, for example, that last off season, instead of investing heavily in Papelbon, he'd reallocated the funds to hitting and signed Beltran instead (and gone the cheaper closer, e.g., Nathan route)? Then, what if he'd followed that up this past off season with signing Swisher (who, btw, has 9 walks in his first 59 PA this year)? No one wants to lose draft picks, but with the core continuing to age, might that strategy have made more sense (especially with Utley, Halladay and Chooch in the final year of their respective contracts)? I don't know about anyone else, but I'd feel a whole lot better about this team's chances with Beltran and Swisher in the middle of the lineup.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I'm just saying that it's not as if Rube hasn't had his chances to improve the lineup beyond a signing like Delmon Young. And draft picks are great, but by the time the guys we draft next get to the majors, Utley, Howard, Rollins, Chooch, Halladay and Lee will be distant memories.

That's reasonable, and I remember people here wanting Beltran. However:

--Amaro was probably wary of another high-priced hitter with Betty White knees

--He signed for the same AAV as Papelbon. And given that he had played in Missouri and reportedly liked it and that the Cards were coming off a championship, we probably would have had to pay a decent amount more, assuming we even had a chance

--That means no Nathan, without busting the luxury tax

--That means literally the worst MLB bullpen ever in 2012

Not sure I agree about the Swisher - draft pick thing, either. I hear what you're saying, but I'm not sure it was wise to go all in on trying to win one more with this core. I honestly liked going middle of the road with some potential bounce-back type guys on short-term deals. To this point, it seems the right way to go with Halladay looking far from his old self. We'll see

by **The B1G Piece** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 08:47:02

I'm not a total homer but Rollins is low on my list of worries.

by **Trent Steele** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 09:18:21

The B1G Piece wrote:I'm not a total homer but Rollins is low on my list of worries.

Seriously. Jimmy runs hot and cold but his general awesomeness is pretty well established. In his worst full seasons, he's a 3 win player.

by **Monkeyboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 09:50:23

Grotewold wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:All those people who gave me a hard time for saying this team will not walk enough or have enough power to score runs consistently

Yeah no one did that. It was more asking you who else was available (other than Swisher) and saying Josh Fields sucks.

Enjoy, though!

B.S. My answer to that was "pretty much anyone," and to point you to Trent's list, which is only good enough when Trent writes it. There were about a thousand different combinations of players he could have signed and he chose practically the worst combination, thumbing his smug nose at those who believe that it takes more than grit and good clubhouse chemistry and aggressiveness at the plate to win. And Swisher counts, btw. He was my first suggestion. You don't get to demand that I list players and then say, "anyone but those guys," when I list someone.

I assure you, I am not enjoying watching this team or any of this. But my post was meant more to poke fun as many other similar posts from others have done.

by **Grotewold** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 09:52:52

Monkeyboy wrote:And Swisher counts, btw. He was my first suggestion. You don't get to demand that I list players and then say, "anyone but those guys," when I list someone.

I was conceding Swisher -- about whom good arguments can be made both ways -- not excluding him.

And it wasn't a "demand." Just seems like part of trashing a GM and saying a monkey could do better would be to list realistic alternatives. All I remember from you is Swisher, Fields, and Jermaine Mitchell. And, of course, "anyone."

by **Monkeyboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 09:53:45

etched Chaos wrote:Ah the bliss of monkeyboy taking a small sample size and using it to justify his own predictions, yay for baseball shortsightedness.

What are you talking about? These guys have been around for years and have sucked for years. The only exception is 3B Young, who used to be good but is now a singles hitter who can't take a walk. There's a site called BaseballReference.com" and it lists players stats. Check it out sometime.

by **Grotewold** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 09:59:10

Monkeyboy wrote:
etched Chaos wrote:Ah the bliss of monkeyboy taking a small sample size and using it to justify his own predictions, yay for baseball shortsightedness.

What are you talking about? These guys have been around for years and have sucked for years. The only exception is 3B Young, who used to be good but is now a singles hitter who can't take a walk. There's a site called BaseballReference.com" and it lists players stats. Check it out sometime.

It's a cool site!

It's telling me the core of the lineup is Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, and Brown. And that the significant additions were Revere (who doesn't walk but had a decent OBP last year) and Young (who had a great OBP in 2011 and, FWIW, has a great one now)

We get it, man. Really. We all read Moneyball and understand the benefits of plate discipline. It appears Amaro is selling that short, which is a concern. But that doesn't mean you get to say a monkey could do a better job without also considering the market and providing realistic alternatives. Something beyond "Trent wrote a list."

by **Monkeyboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:08:48

Grotewold wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:And Swisher counts, btw. He was my first suggestion. You don't get to demand that I list players and then say, "anyone but those guys," when I list someone.

I was conceding Swisher -- about whom good arguments can be made both ways -- not excluding him.

And it wasn't a "demand." Just seems like part of trashing a GM and saying a monkey could do better would be to list realistic alternatives. All I remember from you is Swisher, Fields, and Jermaine Mitchell.

AND POINTING YOU TO TRENT'S LIST. WHY WOULD I REPEAT WORK THAT'S ALREADY BEEN DONE??????

Actually, a monkey throwing darts could have picked better hitters at random since it seems he went out and found the least productive players possible.

All I said about Fields was that he was intriguing because he was a former top prospect with some tools in his toolshed. And all I remember saying about Mitchell was that I liked him more than inciarte. And it is NOT reasonable to ask me to come up with a bunch of players because if you go back just 2-3 years you could have hundreds of possible combinations. And if I had listed players, I know that you would have said something like, "You don't know how that guy would have performed here. And you don't know, maybe Rube tried to get him and couldn't." Or something like that. IOW, it would have been a waste of time to go back through the trade and waiver wires from the past few years. PLUS, TRENT ALREADY DID IT. WHY REPEAT WORK THAT HAS BEEN DONE??? Of course, his list was just a subset of all the players that would have been better than the ones Ruben picked -- you know, the ones that don't need to hit for power or take a walk to be productive.

by **Grotewold** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:10:03

Monkeyboy wrote:AND POINTING YOU TO TRENT'S LIST.

by **Monkeyboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:17:35

Grotewold wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
etched Chaos wrote:Ah the bliss of monkeyboy taking a small sample size and using it to justify his own predictions, yay for baseball shortsightedness.

What are you talking about? These guys have been around for years and have sucked for years. The only exception is 3B Young, who used to be good but is now a singles hitter who can't take a walk. There's a site called BaseballReference.com" and it lists players stats. Check it out sometime.

It's a cool site!

It's telling me the core of the lineup is Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, and Brown. And that the significant additions were Revere (who doesn't walk but had a decent OBP last year) and Young (who had a great OBP in 2011 and, FWIW, has a great one now)

We get it, man. Really. We all read Moneyball and understand the benefits of plate discipline. It appears Amaro is selling that short, which is a concern. But that doesn't mean you get to say a monkey could do a better job without also considering the market and providing realistic alternatives. Something beyond "Trent wrote a list."

I guess I don't understand then. You asked for a list of players and I pointed you to one. It seems more like you wanted me to do hours of work, which you knew I wouldn't do, which allowed you to say you are right.

There were players available. Many combinations of those players would have fit under the cap. Of all those combinations, he picked one of the worst, imho. On average, a monkey throwing darts would pick combinations near the middle (normal curve and all that). So, yes, I think a monkey could have done better on average if you had all the combinations on the wall and asked it to throw a dart. I really meant it as a joke, but now that I think about it, I think it's true.

But Ruben is better at salary arb and all that other stuff, so I would choose him over a monkey, if that makes you feel any better. Can you teach a monkey to text?

by **Monkeyboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:19:03

Grotewold wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:AND POINTING YOU TO TRENT'S LIST.

OK, why do you want me to make another list, other than you know I won't take the time to do it? Really, is his list bad? I just want to know why I can't use someone else's list when that list provided you the information you asked for.

by **Grotewold** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:19:21

MB -- I vaguely remember Trent's list. And having a good back and forth about it. With Trent. The guy who wrote the list.

You're the one going all Cameron/Cataldi, which I would think you'd support with some alternatives of your own beyond "anyone else!!!!"

It's cool, we disagree. I'll stop re-hashing it with you

by **The Dude** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:22:10

Yeah, the irony is acting like you're smarter than Rube while cribbing someone else's notes

by **Monkeyboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:37:58

Guys, I'm busy as shit. I do 1/2 the baby stuff, 95% of the cooking, 75% of the cleaning, I'm transitioning to dept head and have to attend tons of extra meetings, I'm the point person on the new ipad project (I could list lots more) , and this is on top of doing a boarding school schedule. These are all extra things that other teachers aren't doing. We had two teachers quit last year, single teachers with no kids or other responsibilities, because they couldn't take the schedule, and that's without all the extra stuff I've taken on because I want to be involved in things. I used to take the time to do my own research, but I don't have the time to do so anymore, unless I want to spend my vacation doing it (and I don't). My fantasy teams suck now because I can't do the research. I see no reason why I can't use a list that directly answers the question you are asking. I can't justify spending the hours to go back and revisit past offseasons. Trent was able to do it quickly because he's been involved with all his fantasy duel stuff and because he's awesome. I'm not awesome and I have been out of the loop for too long beyond posting here.

Sorry, but Ruben has done a shit job with what he inherited. I'm not saying he's stupid or that he's bad at all parts of his job. But when it comes to evaluating players and how to assemble a balanced team, he's shit the bed. And I really don't think it's a matter of opinion at this point.

by **Monkeyboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:42:51

Grotewold wrote:MB -- I vaguely remember Trent's list. And having a good back and forth about it. With Trent. The guy who wrote the list.

You're the one going all Cameron/Cataldi, which I would think you'd support with some alternatives of your own beyond "anyone else!!!!"

It's cool, we disagree. I'll stop re-hashing it with you

I gave a few examples of my own, but they weren't good enough for you. You asked for a list or a more detailed example complete with money and all that. I think that's kinda dumb since we all know teams have added good players at reasonable prices during Rube's tenure (Nathan was a guy I suggested to friends and I think on here too, fwiw). Forcing me to list those players just seems like you avoiding the reality of the situation.

But yeh, I guess I'll stop re-hashing it too.

Cataldi's an idiot.

Peace, I hope it all turns out well.

by **Trent Steele** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:43:56

i think we should all just have a laugh about it

by **JFLNYC** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:16:12

Rube's strategy of allocating so many resources to pitching was perfectly rational, especially when you're talking about pitchers the quality of Cliff Lee or Jonathan Papelbon. My objection is the notion that Rube pretty much had his hands tied because quality hitters weren't available.

To me the turning point came the year Werth left. Werth was the Phils' most productive hitter in 2010 but, rather than trying to replace that production, Rube tried to convince himself and us that Ben Francisco was a realistic replacement. Nobody in his right mind would have matched the Nats' offer to Werth, but there was at least one (if not more) alternative, which I remember suggesting at the time: Lance Berkman. The Cards got him cheap on a one-year deal late in the off season and not only was he a key component in helping them win it all, he helped crush the Phils' hopes in the playoffs. And, as I mentioned earlier, the following off season Beltran was available and this past off season Swisher was available.

Now I have no idea whether allocating more resources to hitting (Berkman and/or Beltran and/or Swisher) would have yielded better results. For all I know things might have turned out worse. And, as I said, the path Rube chose was rational and anyone who wants to defend his choices has good arguments on his side. But the idea that there weren't perfectly rational alternatives to reallocate more resources to quality hitters is a myth.

by **Grotewold** » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:20:01

JFLNYC wrote:Rube's strategy of allocating so many resources to pitching was perfectly rational, especially when you're talking about pitchers the quality of Cliff Lee or Jonathan Papelbon. My objection is the notion that Rube pretty much had his hands tied because quality hitters weren't available.

To me the turning point came the year Werth left. Werth was the Phils' most productive hitter in 2010 but, rather than trying to replace that production, Rube tried to convince himself and us that Ben Francisco was a realistic replacement. Nobody in his right mind would have matched the Nats' offer to Werth, but there was at least one (if not more) alternative, which I remember suggesting at the time: Lance Berkman. The Cards got him cheap on a one-year deal late in the off season and not only was he a key component in helping them win it all, he helped crush the Phils' hopes in the playoffs. And, as I mentioned earlier, the following off season Beltran was available and this past off season Swisher was available.

Now I have no idea whether allocating more resources to hitting (Berkman and/or Beltran and/or Swisher) would have yielded better results. For all I know things might have turned out worse. And, as I said, the path Rube chose was rational and anyone who wants to defend his choices has good arguments on his side. But the idea that there weren't perfectly rational alternatives to reallocate more resources to quality hitters is a myth.

To be fair, that was supposed to be Brown's moment, and he broke his hand the first week.

I hear you on the rest of the post

Archived

I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts