phorever wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

phorever wrote:

The Ibanez thing is so tired.... Cubs and Angels and Mets were reportedly in on Ibanez.

The other stuff is basically fair, although I'd add the Kendrick deal to the plus column, as well as the Mayberry and Horst trades.

As for Howard, I don't think it was realistic for Amaro cut bait with him and not bring in a high-priced replacement for 2012. ....
If they hadn't extended Lidge, were they just gonna let him walk, coming off a WFC and perfect season? That would have been real ballsy.

it looks like we disagree on things for which it is hard to make a strong evidence-based case either way. opinions, in other words. so what follows isn´t an argument, just a statement of my reasoning
disagree on ibanez: i didn´t see enough confirmation at the time to convince me there was real competition for him, and i think that a third year option would have been enough.
disagree on kendrick. he´s been about break-even overall and could easily turn into a negative this year. mayberry too.
disagree on lidge. his velocity was already in decline in the 2007-8 seasons which should have been enough to make them wait. after the world series, a pre-signing physical would have shown that he was broken. world series hero or not, the phils would be forgiven quickly for not signing a damaged closer.
disagree on howard for multiple reasons. he was given an extension pretty much the equivalent of a top free agent signing, a value level below which he had already fallen, even with his 2009 rebound. the likelihood was even then extremely high that by 2012 you could get more value for the same cost. and there were still two years to go on the old contract. why the heck not wait one more year to get a better idea of how much to pay him beyond 2011?

Doesn't really matter if you disagree on Lidge since Amaro wasn't the GM yet

Grotewold wrote:Good points. I should have said in my grade for Amaro, though, that he put two tremendous teams on the field in 2010 and 2011, which could have easily won us a second title. That belongs in the conversation about Pence, even though it doesn't necessarily justify it

i too really like much of what he did to assemble the 2009-11 teams. getting lee and pedro for the stretch run in 2009 was awesome and would have resulted in a second wfc if not for cole having a baby and pedro and others getting sick. the trade lee for prospects --> use the prospects and cash to get little roy --> sign lee in the next offseason to create an historically awesome rotation was genius, except that they blew the prospect evaluation. still were deservedly seen as wfc favorites going into the past two offseasons. i'm in the minority that believe polanco to have been a good and valuable acquisition, and ibanez to have been a pretty decent move except for the 3rd year. that's all part of why rube gets as much as a c from me despite the abomination of the howard contract and his numerous lesser mistakes.

but without that extra year for ibanez, there's a decent chance we would have had willingham playing right field from 2011-2014. with better prospects from trading lee away maybe they trade for headley last offseason. without howard's extension maybe prince is our first baseman and the papelbon contract really is just the final piece of a juggernaut. willingham/headley/fielder. or upton/chavez+betemit/hamilton. or swisher/olt/ruf. there are lots of combos that would look a lot better than young/young/howard and would have been possible to assemble over the past two offseasons if rube hadn't tied his own hands behind his back. so far, he only really ruined 2012 (with help from injuries, of course) and probably 2013. there's still a chance to save 2014-15 and avoid plunging into a decade of "rebuilding" thanks to all of the contracts coming off the books and a bunch of solid pitching prospects getting close to the show. but it will take really clever maneuvering and good evaluation of available position players.

phorever wrote:but without that extra year for ibanez, there's a decent chance we would have had willingham playing right field from 2011-2014. with better prospects from trading lee away maybe they trade for headley last offseason. without howard's extension maybe prince is our first baseman and the papelbon contract really is just the final piece of a juggernaut. willingham/headley/fielder. or upton/chavez+betemit/hamilton. or swisher/olt/ruf. there are lots of combos that would look a lot better than young/young/howard and would have been possible to assemble over the past two offseasons if rube hadn't tied his own hands behind his back. so far, he only really ruined 2012 (with help from injuries, of course) and probably 2013. there's still a chance to save 2014-15 and avoid plunging into a decade of "rebuilding" thanks to all of the contracts coming off the books and a bunch of solid pitching prospects getting close to the show. but it will take really clever maneuvering and good evaluation of available position players.

We'll have to agree to disagree on Ibanez's "extra year." There's no way to know for sure.

We were gonna give Prince Fielder more than $214M? More than nine years? Highly doubt it.

Obviously I would have liked better prospects (to this point) in the Lee deal, but it's not like his teams received bounties in the other two. Or that many prospects we've dealt have come back to haunt us to date.

Again, I'm not saying Amaro is infallible, by any means. I just think the criticism goes too far. We were awesome in 2010-2011 and came into 2012 as the favorites despite injury concerns. The biggest obstacle for 2013 is Washington and maybe Atlanta improving. Not mismanagement, imo.

Obviously, I'm on the other side.

It's not even the individual moves that he's made, though I will (and have) debated those. It's the simple idea that he took over the best team in baseball, doubled the payroll, and has the 12th best team in baseball. He gambled by making an old team older, and the gamble failed, and now he's left with an expensive but not elite roster.

The arguments about who was available via free agency, who else could he have signed or traded for, etc., are all components of his job. Projecting that. Feeling that out. Pre-emptively making decisions if the future market appears to be light at a certain position.

His talent evaluation skills are, I believe, questionable. 99% of the world could identify Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee as "elite" guys. It's the middle tier... he doesn't seem to see a difference between the 30th percentile and 70th percentile of players. Sometimes I think he internally confuses league average with replacement level. Not in those terms, 'cause those are for nerds, but conceptually.

Whatever. I hope our 3 pitchers are happy and healthy, and pitch us to a remarkable number of 1-run wins that our bullpen finishes efficiently. But my belief is that we'll be closer to the Mets in record than to either the Nationals or Braves, and my fear is that Amaro will be given the chance to rebuild. I don't think he's the right guy.

Shore wrote:He gambled by making an old team older, and the gamble failed, and now he's left with an expensive but not elite roster.

That whole post is fair, but to me this is the key. What should he have done differently to get younger/better in the midst of 100-win seasons, or (following a down year where injury/age concerns mounted) this winter? Howard and Pence, we've gone over

I'm not saying there wasn't a better course but I don't see certainty there or see us as bottom dwellers this year or even next

We'll see

Morgan #92 and Biddle #95 on Law's Top 100.

Singleton at # 32, just below a nice pistacchio flan

Curt Schilling on gay players in sports:

“I’ve never understood this ‘issue’ with gay players? Who cares? I know I played with some, their sexual orientation never had much… to do with how they hit with [a runner in scoring position], or pitched in late and close situations. Why the hell would what they do in the bedroom ever matter?”

Any of them Phillies, I wonder?

It's too late schilling, I already think you're an ass. Don't try to butter me up with all this talk of tolerance.

still hoping and praying the phillies sign valverde

Just had this thought: who the hell is our backup catcher till Chooch comes back from suspension? Valle?
Also from the 40 man: who are Ender Inciarte and Cesar Hernandez? I thought I was a true hardcore fan for life but apparently not.

Probably Humberto Quintero

Inciarte was a Rule V pick from Arizona a couple months ago

Hernandez has been in the Phils minor league system for six years

Ruben said he's going to sign a catcher.

so likely Inciarte is offered back to make a spot on the 40 man for Quintero is non-roster.

Tommy Joseph was invited to ST correct?

yep

bleh wrote:Ruben said he's going to sign a catcher.

The return of Rod Barajas

(I think he and Matt Treanor are the only unsigned FA ctchers left)

Ruf's wife recently posted on the Fightin Phils Facebook page. She has a lot of public photos- if you're into that.

youre a weird guy

Did you see the pic they posted yesterday for their Valentines Day promo? hmm