The fact that this thread is nestling next to the upton thread is fucking a massive rock through the thin pane of glass that is my baseball sanity.

Grotewold wrote:I was talking about guys on the margins ($0.5-3M). But if you wanna talk trades or big signings...

I'm fine with Ruf/Mayberry/Brown getting the majority of PT on the corners. We don't need to sign an OF on the margins... it's a downgrade. I'm sure Amaro doesn't look at projection systems, but that trio should have ok production.

Based on the cost, we don't need to trade for someone, even if guys like Cuddyer would be given away for basically free. My point is that there are plenty of decent OFs available. There is no dearth of high OBP OFs. They're just not free.

To paraphrase Trent Steele, I wouldnt want Delmon Young on the roster even if he was paying the Phillies $750,000.

Grotewold wrote:I was talking about guys on the margins ($0.5-3M). But if you wanna talk trades or big signings...

Very difficult/costly to acquire, for various reasons, and their OBP:

BJ Upton (.298)
Justin Upton (.355)
Michael Morse (.321)
Martin Prado (.359)
Denard Span (.342)
Dexter Fowler (.389)
Jacoby Ellsbury (.313)
Mark Trumbo (.317)

Somewhat difficult/costly to acquire:

Jason Kubel (.327)
Michael Cuddyer (.317)

I never paid a lot of attention to Morse. (Even when he was out here because he was always hurt or PED suspended. Plus, he was a huge shortstop and he was nowhere near a Cal Ripken).

But after the trade I looked at him closer and noticed how much of a hacker he is. Big slugging guys are often more selective.

Werthless wrote:I'm fine with Ruf/Mayberry/Brown getting the majority of PT on the corners. I don't need to trade for someone, even if guys like Cuddyer would be given away for basically free. But there are plenty of decent OFs available. There is no dearth of high OBP OFs. They're just not free. To paraphrase Trent Steele, I wouldnt want Delmon Young on the roster even if he was paying the Phillies $750,000.

All due respect, you're kind of all over the place here. Did you support signing Cuddyer last year -- and even if so, doesn't he carry a significantly higher opportunity cost to Ruf/Mayberry/Brown along with the shoddy defense?

And yes, I do think there's a dearth of available high OBP OFs. Teams value that really, really highly now.

Wizlah wrote:The fact that this thread is nestling next to the upton thread is fucking a massive rock through the thin pane of glass that is my baseball sanity.

Wiz. This might be a season in which we must drink very heavily.

Grotewold wrote:
And yes, I do think there's a dearth of available high OBP OFs. Teams value that really, really highly now.

most teams. the phillies don't.

FTN wrote:

Grotewold wrote:
And yes, I do think there's a dearth of available high OBP OFs. Teams value that really, really highly now.

most teams. the phillies don't.

The new Moneyball...

smitty wrote:

Wizlah wrote:The fact that this thread is nestling next to the upton thread is fucking a massive rock through the thin pane of glass that is my baseball sanity.

Wiz. This might be a season in which we must drink very heavily.

fuck it. all things must pass.

Grotewold wrote:

FTN wrote:

Grotewold wrote:
And yes, I do think there's a dearth of available high OBP OFs. Teams value that really, really highly now.

most teams. the phillies don't.

The new Moneyball...

According to Bill James, the newest market inefficiency is contact hitters. Something about the continued rise of strikeouts and a much lower run scoring environment in the post steroid era.

The Phillies continue to be ahead of the curve.
Frenchy Francouer is next.

smitty wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

FTN wrote:

Grotewold wrote:
And yes, I do think there's a dearth of available high OBP OFs. Teams value that really, really highly now.

most teams. the phillies don't.

The new Moneyball...

According to Bill James, the newest market inefficiency is contact hitters. Something about the continued rise of strikeouts and a much lower run scoring environment in the post steroid era.

The Phillies continue to be ahead of the curve.
Frenchy Francouer is next.

I read that but wasn't gonna get into it today. Already have my hands full with this Young mess...

Grotewold wrote:

Werthless wrote:I'm fine with Ruf/Mayberry/Brown getting the majority of PT on the corners. I don't need to trade for someone, even if guys like Cuddyer would be given away for basically free. But there are plenty of decent OFs available. There is no dearth of high OBP OFs. They're just not free. To paraphrase Trent Steele, I wouldnt want Delmon Young on the roster even if he was paying the Phillies $750,000.

All due respect, you're kind of all over the place here. Did you support signing Cuddyer last year -- and even if so, doesn't he carry a significantly higher opportunity cost to Ruf/Mayberry/Brown along with the shoddy defense?

And yes, I do think there's a dearth of available high OBP OFs. Teams value that really, really highly now.

No, didnt want to sign Cuddyer, and don't want to trade for him even if practically given to us. Not sure where I'm sending mixed messages. I'm not sure what you're arguing, but perhaps you're defining available as available for cheap. No shit, good players are expensive. And to most people that know the rules of baseball, they can identify that the best players don't make outs very often. The problem is Amaro's apparent inability to distinguish good players from bad.

Sorry for derail. Delmon Young is terrible.

I misunderstood you on Cuddyer, my bad, and don't need to belabor this

Grotewold wrote:I misunderstood you on Cuddyer, my bad, and don't need to belabor this

I'll admit I'm unreasonably upset about this signing. My problem, and what drives me to argue to the death about this, is that the signing confirms my fears about the front office. We're gonna be Phillies fans forever, and I don't want the next 15 years to be awful because no one in the Phillies front office has the capability to measure the value of a major league baseball player. Delmon Young, John Lannan, Michael Young (paying him $6MM!), Raul Ibanez (that one didnt turn out bad), Ryan Howard extension, etc. Combine this with slight overpays of RPs (Papelbon), unwillingness to play promising youths (Brown), and I get sad.

We need spring training, because seeing a healthy Halladay will make me happier.

Well you're in luck, because Roy is in the best shape of his career!

Grotewold wrote:

Warszawa wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:
I was willing to accept that the Nats are
going to smoke our asses, but the Braves are going to get Justin Upton and field a lineup that is so much better than ours that it hurts. BJ, Prado, Hewyard, Justin, McCann, Freeman, Uggla, Simmons. And an insane bullpen.

The Braves and Nationals both have superior offenses compared to the phillies and thats even with Howard and Utley at 100%. So you figure the only way the phillies can overtake either team is with their superior pitching.....which they don't really have anymore.

Starting pitching is really important. I don't prefer the Braves' to ours. The Nationals', maybe, but they're no lock to reproduce what they did last year.

Yeah I forgot hanson was traded away (although he ended up being a bust anyway). The Braves rotation may be their achillies heel especially if medlen regresses. Their bullpen can help overcome that though.

One other hope could be that the braves have built a team that would be perfect for CBP but maybe not so much for their place. Maybe the Uptons will be exposed having to play half their games there.

As far as the Nats, they dont scare me quite so much. I think the phillies lineup is pretty close to them in talent. hopefully their edge in rotation depth and bullpen can be overcome

Lastly if the phillies are close in June/July rube has positioned himself to make a move then that will hopefully rival the braves and nats big moves

There's no way I'm going to like this signing. However, he's getting paid less than Ty Wigginton. So that's something.

I can't get over the feeling that this smells like a move for the sake of making a move so Amaro can say he's doing something.

Phan In Phlorida wrote:I can't get over the feeling that this smells like a move for the sake of making a move so Amaro can say he's doing something.

I don't feel that at all-I think the time for that has passed and would have included Cody Ross or some such. Delmon Young has a big name but a cheap salary, and I think Amaro just saw it as a way to get a guy who used to be good and theoretically is young enough to be good again for not much monetary outlay and no loss of prospects.

The division really should be just on whether you think Delmon Young can help the Phillies, or any other team for that matter, and how much of an asshole you think he is. I don't think you really need any ulterior motives to explain it.

Speculating about ulterior motives is way more fun than discussing Delmon Young.

Contract details according to Zo:

$750,000. Plus: $150,000 for 250 plate appearances; $150,000 for 300 plate appearances; $150,000 for 350 plate appearances; $150,000 for 400 plate appearances; $200,000 for 450 plate appearances; $200,000 for 500 plate appearances; $250,000 for 550 plate appearances; $250,000 for 600 plate appearances. Plus: $50,000 for All-Star ($25,000 selection); $100,000 for MVP; $100,000 for World Series MVP; $50,000 for League Championship Series MVP; $50,000 for Gold Glove; $50,000 for Silver Slugger. Plus (for each on active Major League roster): $250,000 for 1 day; $100,000 for 40 days; $100,000 for 80 days; $100,000 for 120 days; $100,000 for 160 days. Plus: $100,000 each for six conditioning thresholds.

So he can get up to $3.5M if he meets every condition, not counting the All-Star/playoff/award stuff