He's also really like 37.

CrashburnAlley wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:His power dropped off, but the numbers still weren't there at the beginning of the year. .806 OPS through late April is not normal for Pujols. He's great because he basically doesn't slump. He's always hot. But not this year. Something's up.

Well, 98 PA doesn't give you a whole lot of confidence in his numbers anyway. And he did have a .200 BABIP before the hamstring injury. Could've just been unlucky. He's hitting a lot more ground balls, which should actually lead to a higher BABIP (but would also explain some of the loss in power as well).

well he's never had a stretch anything like this, unless I'm missing something. I don't buy the bad BABIP. He's just not hitting the ball hard

In April 2007, his OPS was .832 so it does happen from time to time

Monkeyboy wrote:

CrashburnAlley wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:His power dropped off, but the numbers still weren't there at the beginning of the year. .806 OPS through late April is not normal for Pujols. He's great because he basically doesn't slump. He's always hot. But not this year. Something's up.

Well, 98 PA doesn't give you a whole lot of confidence in his numbers anyway. And he did have a .200 BABIP before the hamstring injury. Could've just been unlucky. He's hitting a lot more ground balls, which should actually lead to a higher BABIP (but would also explain some of the loss in power as well).

well he's never had a stretch anything like this, unless I'm missing something. I don't buy the bad BABIP. He's just not hitting the ball hard

yes he is. not at the same rate he always has, but he is. Career average LD% is 19.1 and he's at 15.2 for this year. His sOPS+ on line drives (where 100 is league average) is 65. It's 94 on fly balls, which isn't bad, and it's 110 on ground balls. His BABIP on line drives is .586; the National League average is .715. Basically, he's hitting a lot of line drives right at guys, at least comparative to the rest of the NL. whatever you're seeing is based on some misconception.

So this is all a big unlucky streak? He's going through the worst stretch of his career. Maybe some of it is unlucky, but he's not hitting the ball the way Pujols normally does. The ball isn't coming off his bat like it has in the past. He could be hitting the ball square, which would result in line drives, and it still not be his normal hitting power.

yes, once in a career or sometimes more than once you go through the worst stretch of your career. i don't know what you want. he's hitting line drives almost as well as he used to. what are you seeing, specifically, that says that's not true?

It's most likely a combination of both. He's probably "slumping" a bit, but as Jive pointed out, he's had horrible luck so far this year on LDs. Just a rough estimate, but his OPS should be in the low to mid .900s based on regression, which is certainly not what we expect from Pujols, but only about 50 points away from it.

What is his line drive BABIP for his career? Just wondering. I don't have that in front of me and I'm not sure where to find it.

What I do see is someone WAY below their career averages in almost every advanced category. Some of that is due to bad BABIP, no doubt, but there's no way that accounts for all of it.

fwiw, I hope you're right since I have him in a few fantasy leagues.

Career BABIP on line drives is .795. He might not post his typical MVP numbers this year but even his worst year is going to keep him as a top-five first baseman in the NL, at the very worst. And I'm sure he'll be better next year, if healthy.

Monkeyboy wrote:What is his line drive BABIP for his career? Just wondering. I don't have that in front of me and I'm not sure where to find it.

What I do see is someone WAY below their career averages in almost every advanced category. Some of that is due to bad BABIP, no doubt, but there's no way that accounts for all of it.

fwiw, I hope you're right since I have him in a few fantasy leagues.

2011 NL averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagu ... 1&t=b#traj

Pujols 2011 averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... 1&t=b#traj

Pujols career averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... r&t=b#traj

CrashburnAlley wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:What is his line drive BABIP for his career? Just wondering. I don't have that in front of me and I'm not sure where to find it.

What I do see is someone WAY below their career averages in almost every advanced category. Some of that is due to bad BABIP, no doubt, but there's no way that accounts for all of it.

fwiw, I hope you're right since I have him in a few fantasy leagues.

2011 NL averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagu ... 1&t=b#traj

Pujols 2011 averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... 1&t=b#traj

Pujols career averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... r&t=b#traj

.400 BABIP on bunts? SMALL BALL!

When Pujols OPSes 1.750 in June, he is going to be so pissed at you all for doubting him. And he is going to come looking for you all.

(By getting traded to the Phillies!)

If you were considering signing him as a free agent, would you demand he produce his birth certificate and hold a press conference about it

Baseball Jesus 2.0 has a.392 SLG%

Woody wrote:If you were considering signing him as a free agent, would you demand he produce his birth certificate and hold a press conference about it

Pujols consorted with the Cardinals, a noted terrorist organization, so yes.

Yeah, so it looks really bleak for Gary Carter.

Polar Bear Phan wrote:Yeah, so it looks really bleak for Gary Carter.

Stuff like this makes me want to cry, and I hated Gary Carter the player.

Barry Jive wrote:Career BABIP on line drives is .795. He might not post his typical MVP numbers this year but even his worst year is going to keep him as a top-five first baseman in the NL, at the very worst. And I'm sure he'll be better next year, if healthy.

I'm not sure how you can be sure of that, but OK. Could I get next week's Lotto numbers while you're at it? I could use the cash.

But really, that's what I was talking about. He's not going to put up numbers like he usually does. In fact, unless he has a monster comeback, which he is very capable of if he's healthy and nothing else is going on, he'll end up having by far his worst season. For a guy with robot-like consistency, I think that's worth a mention. At the moment, he'll need a nice comeback to end up in the top 5 in the NL since it would mean raising his OPS over 100 points.

As you probably saw when you looked up his stats, and as I expected (which is why I asked), he normally hits well above league average (.795 to .716) on line drives. His line drives have a tendency to not be caught on account of him being albert freakin Pujols and the pitchers being mere mortals.

Anyway, I just want to be sure he's ok before RAJ steals him from the Cards for Worleybird and a bag of peanuts.

Benny Lava wrote:

CrashburnAlley wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:What is his line drive BABIP for his career? Just wondering. I don't have that in front of me and I'm not sure where to find it.

What I do see is someone WAY below their career averages in almost every advanced category. Some of that is due to bad BABIP, no doubt, but there's no way that accounts for all of it.

fwiw, I hope you're right since I have him in a few fantasy leagues.

2011 NL averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagu ... 1&t=b#traj

Pujols 2011 averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... 1&t=b#traj

Pujols career averages on batted balls: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... r&t=b#traj

.400 BABIP on bunts? SMALL BALL!

Thanks for the links, Calvin. I was looking at fangraphs.

And Benny Lava, the league average on bunts is .391. That's much higher than I would have suspected.

Monkeyboy wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:Career BABIP on line drives is .795. He might not post his typical MVP numbers this year but even his worst year is going to keep him as a top-five first baseman in the NL, at the very worst. And I'm sure he'll be better next year, if healthy.

I'm not sure how you can be sure of that, but OK. Could I get next week's Lotto numbers while you're at it? I could use the cash.

I'm not sure it's fair to dismiss that. I think all that he was trying to say is that, if you're going to gauge future performance, would his whole career be a good indicator, or 2 months in a season?