JFLNYC wrote:There were also a lot of people who were convinced this offense would be just fine, so there's that.

phatj wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:There were also a lot of people who were convinced this offense would be just fine, so there's that.

Jesus Christ are you fucking retarded?

The offense is just fine.

JFLNYC wrote:There were also a lot of people who were convinced this offense would be just fine, so there's that.

JFLNYC wrote:

phatj wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:There were also a lot of people who were convinced this offense would be just fine, so there's that.

Jesus Christ are you #$&! retarded?

The offense is just fine.

It's despicable that anyone would take such an offensive tone, let alone a moderator.

JFLNYC wrote:A lot of the argument that the Phils offense would be OK this year was predicated on the assumption that, since the team suffered so many injuries in 2010, increased playing time from regulars (especially Rollins and Howard) would help a lot. I never bought into that assumption because injuries happen, especially on an aging team.

For Rollins, although he's been trending down the last few years, I expected that in his walk year, he'd show a modest increase in production and he has. But MVP Jimmy is long gone, so his increased production is not very significant. As for Howard, through hard work and determination, he's slowed the process of Big Man Decline. To expect him to reverse the process -- especially significantly -- seemed unlikely.

As for the rest of the lineup:

Polanco: His elbow injury probably hurt his production last year. But at this point in his career, he's a singles hitter with no power or speed. So to expect more than a modest increase in production seemed unlikely.

Utley: No one could have anticipated his knee problems, so it was reasonable to expect 150+ games from Chase with a 130+ OPS+.

Werth: To expect any combination of Franciso, Brown, Gload, etc., to come close to Werth's 145 OPS+ was totally unreasonable. And that doesn't even factor in Werth's defense and baserunning.

Ibanez: To expect Raul to increase his production at age 39 was also unreasonable.

Victorino: Victorino was the one guy I expected to be pretty consistent in terms of production. He'd have his occasional leg injury but, overall, it was reasonable to expect him to be in the upper tier of NL CF.

Ruiz: Chooch had a career year last year (128 OPS+). Given the rigors of catching at the age of 32, it just wasn't reasonable to expect that kind of production to be repeated.

So, even if you assume that somehow magically a veteran team will suffer no significant injuries, if you look at the 8 regulars, you see similar production or modest increases from 4 (Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Victorino), but probable decrease to significant decrease from the other 4 (Howard, Werth/5 hole, Ibanez, Ruiz). Add in the Utley injury and the overall decrease in offense around the league and this is what you get.

LastTrain wrote:These are NL totals since 2000.

For 2011, 680 games had been played through yesterday. Runs and HRs have been prorated based on 2,592 total games being played (16 x 162), using the current pace through 680 actual games. While some assume more HRs get hit and more runs get scored during the summer months, I haven't looked at the actual monthly trends to see if there's any truth to that theory.

JFLNYC wrote:The total number of NL regulars with an .800 or better OPS has gone from 39 in 2008 to 36 in 2009 to 32 last to 26 so far this year.

swishnicholson wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:The total number of NL regulars with an .800 or better OPS has gone from 39 in 2008 to 36 in 2009 to 32 last to 26 so far this year.

It's all the new, bigger ballparks.

And the balls are now filled with kitty liter.