Random Phillies Stuff Cont.

by **joe table** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 12:58:14

Like others have alluded to, Wilson is likely somewhere between a -1.0 and +1.0 WAR (using wOBA and UZR, and FG replacement level) player over 600+ PAs/160 games

Franciscio is likely somewhere between 1.5-2.5 WAR in RF for 600 PAs. Brown probably has upside that is substantially above that

Werth, age 31, is probably between 3.5-5.5 WAR for next season IMO (giving more weight to recent performances). You need to pay him 80+mm through his age 36/37 or so season to retain him for next year, though

Rollins, age 31, is probably between a 3.0-5.0 WAR player for next season (giving more weight to recent performance). His best WAR seasons, however, have been better than Werth's best

Before you tell me how decliney and terrible he's been this year, he has still been on a pace for about 4.2 WAR this year had he played in 150 games. And before you tell me how injury prone he is, this is the first year he's played fewer than 137 games since 2000

He's also locked up at 7.5mm next season. Very, very cheap. And you don't have to retain him long-term to keep him next year

Finally, switching from theoretical to practical, he now has full 10 and 5 rights to veto all trades

I think the debate on Rollins is "extend or let walk." I think there are good arguments both ways given the makeup of our payroll/team.....personally, I still side with wanting to extend him as soon as this offseason. But keeping him for next season (vs trading him and using his money towards 8% of a Werth extension) is a no brainer, IMO

by **WheelsFellOff** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 13:03:19

I honestly cannot imagine Jimmy wearing any other uniform. Even the ASG appearances felt weird.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 13:04:38

joe table wrote:Finally, switching from theoretical to practical, he now has full 10 and 5 rights to veto all trades

Forgot about this.

Debate over.

by **jamiethekiller** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 13:52:00

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/ne ... phi-news49

with the iphone AT BAT app, you can now order from a preselected food menu and have it delivered to your seat.

kind of incredible.

by 1 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 13:58:54

jamiethekiller wrote:http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100923&content_id=14986258&vkey=news_phi&c_id=phi&tcid=fb-phi-news49

with the iphone AT BAT app, you can now order from a preselected food menu and have it delivered to your seat.

kind of incredible.

whoa

also:

I know the iPhone is the king of the hill as far as smartphones go, but I'm sure they'll port it over to other phones. I absolutely LOATHE AT&T and will never support them in any way, shape, or form because of their subpar service and exorbitant pricing (their new data plans are NOT cheaper - do your research!)...Verizon owns them in every way! Not to mention that big, garish, distracting AT&T sign in right field..if I was a player, I'd pay out of my salary to have the blasted thing removed! Also, the "renaming" of SEPTA's PATTISON station (why couldn't they just call it AT&T Pattison Station if they wanted to advertise?). But I blame SEPTA (SEPTIC?) and their corrupt money-grubbing unions (pro-union guy, just not for those!) for the latter...

by **Eem** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:01:26

In honor of the new Harry Potter trailer:

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:07:09

WAR? what is good for

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:16:23

The Eeming Tree wrote:http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010/09/23/sports/doc4c9ac19cb3413887367027.txt

What we got for CLIFFLEE! ...

by **Marion** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:18:08

The food-ordering technology, which is being used at a Major League ballpark for the first time, allows the application to verify a fan is within the stadium

So I can't get my Graham Slam delivered to Annapolis?!

by **phorever** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:32:34

joe table wrote: But keeping him for next season (vs trading him and using his money towards 8% of a Werth extension) is a no brainer, IMO

almost, but not quite true. you are right about jimmy continuing to be pretty valuable. the excellent baserunning is likely to stay pretty constant for a couple more years (like it did even with the old versions of bonds and rickey), as is the solid d at a premium d position (even jeter improved with age). those are enough that even with just a .700 ops and crappy obp $7-8million for rollins is still going to be a pretty good deal for the next couple of years.

however, if ibanez and/or lidge not only amass enough value in the late season that they can be traded to pay jayson, but also in combination with rollins can land us a young prospect good enough to take over the ss position for us for the next 5 years (someone like rollins in 2003 or 04 who was good but underappreciated entering his prime), then you can move jimmy and actually get better. brown-vic-werth in the outfield and a young (and cheaper) jimmy at short. unlikely (especially since the offseason version of ruben kinda sucks), but not inconceivable... at least not as long and lige and ibanez don't go bust again.

by **WheelsFellOff** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:39:14

phorever wrote:however, if ibanez and/or lidge not only amass enough value in the late season that they can be traded to pay jayson, but also in combination with rollins can land us a young prospect good enough to take over the ss position for us for the next 5 years (someone like rollins in 2003 or 04 who was good but underappreciated entering his prime), then you can move jimmy and actually get better.

Rollins was underappreciated when he entered the league because the shortstop position was perceived to be so strong. The same cannot be said today however.

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:40:24

phorever wrote:
joe table wrote: But keeping him for next season (vs trading him and using his money towards 8% of a Werth extension) is a no brainer, IMO

almost, but not quite true. you are right about jimmy continuing to be pretty valuable. the excellent baserunning is likely to stay pretty constant for a couple more years (like it did even with the old versions of bonds and rickey), as is the solid d at a premium d position (even jeter improved with age). those are enough that even with just a .700 ops and crappy obp $7-8million for rollins is still going to be a pretty good deal for the next couple of years.

however, if ibanez and/or lidge not only amass enough value in the late season that they can be traded to pay jayson, but also in combination with rollins can land us a young prospect good enough to take over the ss position for us for the next 5 years (someone like rollins in 2003 or 04 who was good but underappreciated entering his prime), then you can move jimmy and actually get better. brown-vic-werth in the outfield and a young (and cheaper) jimmy at short. unlikely (especially since the offseason version of ruben kinda sucks), but not inconceivable... at least not as long and lige and ibanez don't go bust again.

This is fantasy world stuff. Neither Lidge nor Ibanez is getting traded. No one is paying Ibanez $11.5m or Lidge $13m (buyout of $1.5 included). Werth is leaving. Jimmy is staying. Resign Cole.

by **lethal** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:42:28

phorever wrote:
joe table wrote: But keeping him for next season (vs trading him and using his money towards 8% of a Werth extension) is a no brainer, IMO

almost, but not quite true. you are right about jimmy continuing to be pretty valuable. the excellent baserunning is likely to stay pretty constant for a couple more years (like it did even with the old versions of bonds and rickey), as is the solid d at a premium d position (even jeter improved with age). those are enough that even with just a .700 ops and crappy obp $7-8million for rollins is still going to be a pretty good deal for the next couple of years.

however, if ibanez and/or lidge not only amass enough value in the late season that they can be traded to pay jayson, but also in combination with rollins can land us a young prospect good enough to take over the ss position for us for the next 5 years (someone like rollins in 2003 or 04 who was good but underappreciated entering his prime), then you can move jimmy and actually get better. brown-vic-werth in the outfield and a young (and cheaper) jimmy at short. unlikely (especially since the offseason version of ruben kinda sucks), but not inconceivable... at least not as long and lige and ibanez don't go bust again.

There's no teams that would be willing to assume even the last year of either Lidge's or Ibanez's contracts. You're talking with pie in the sky optimism here.

by **slugsrbad** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:44:32

1. Put Oswalt in LF permanently
2. Put Ibanez on bench/platoon duty
3. ????
4. Profit

by **phatj** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 14:58:08

I don't like High Hopes.

by **Wheels Tupay** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 15:01:39

phatj wrote:I don't like High Hopes.

by **smitty** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 15:26:13

Moz' movie was great -- it made me cqtm. But he left out the part where Sweeney gets shot by the hooker. Of course he thanks her and gives her a big hug before collapsing in the corner of the room.

by **Grotewold** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 15:26:49

smitty wrote:Moz' movie was great -- it made me cqtm. But he left out the part where Sweeney gets shot by the hooker. Of course he thanks her and gives her a big hug before collapsing in the corner of the room.

by **Grotewold** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 15:29:18

Fangraphs chat wrote:Question: Why do you seem to be one of the few (if not the only) baseball analyst/bloggers who won't recognize the Phillies as HUGE favorites in the NL playoffs?

Dave Cameron: Because they aren't? Their rotation is good, everything else is just okay.

by **phorever** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 15:30:11

lethal wrote:
There's no teams that would be willing to assume even the last year of either Lidge's or Ibanez's contracts. You're talking with pie in the sky optimism here.

sorry, i was sloppy there. i didn't mean to suggest that their whole contracts could be traded. at best, we would have to pay $5million of each. that still saves over $10million total. you can eat more to make sure you end up with a good ss prospect. then maybe you save $6 million on the first two and can save another $7million on rollins and you are up in the neighborhood of the first year of a werth deal. if you trade ibanez for a b+ prospect, you can trade lidge and a b+ prospect for an a prospect, and then rollins and the a prospect for and a+ shortstop propect.

still, yes, i'm being pretty darn optimistic. but i do think that this would be doable for a gm who was thinking creatively and had good enough scouts to get the right prospects. ibanez could be pretty valuable for and al team for who he could dh. lidge is a pretty good bet to be earn his keep if you are only paying him 4-7 million. rollins has obvious value, and might like the chance to play in california.

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