Phillies vs Rays: World Series Discussion

Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Oct 21, 2008 22:15:37

Ace Rothstein wrote:im still pretty calm about all this , i guess i need to see kazmir throw that 1st pitch tomorrow night to get crazy


You need to watch some of those inspiring videos.
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Postby BigEd76 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 22:30:10

Joe Sheehan: Rays in 6

Another one that thinks Tampa is the all-around best team. Whatever....



CSN has another WS preview show on right now

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Postby Vote for Kalas » Tue Oct 21, 2008 22:31:37

mozartpc27 wrote:I can't believe he thinks the Rays are THAT much better. The Phillies had the better run differential. Even if you grant that the AL is "harder" than the NL, and that adjusting for the league/schedule difference would show the Rays to be the better team (which they probably are, fine), are they really 90-72 better than the Phillies? That seems absurd.


The Rays beat his beloved nation so of course he is going to think they are much better. Neyer has really become a joke.
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Postby swishnicholson » Tue Oct 21, 2008 22:40:25

Ace Rothstein wrote:im still pretty calm about all this , i guess i need to see Rollins hit that 1st pitch for a home run tomorrow night to get crazy


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Postby Ace Rothstein » Tue Oct 21, 2008 22:46:56

TenuredVulture wrote:
Ace Rothstein wrote:im still pretty calm about all this , i guess i need to see kazmir throw that 1st pitch tomorrow night to get crazy


You need to watch some of those inspiring videos.


i have , i dont know what it is , i felt the same way up to game time in the NLCS, i used to be the complete opposite

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Postby BigEd76 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 22:48:09

Boruk interviewing Kurkjian. Tim says relax because he picked the Cubs and Dodgers and thinks the Phils could even sweep the series. He also thinks we've suffered through enough bad baseball and it's nice when someone else wins a title for a change besides the usual teams. Gee thanks... :?

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Postby iamgeorge » Tue Oct 21, 2008 23:12:04

Oh let me just turn on my TV and watch some of this coverag....what's that, my HDTV just shit the bed?!

Yeah. Tonight it died. Why?! WHY THIS WEEK?! This is a disaster.

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Postby steven snell » Tue Oct 21, 2008 23:13:44

BigEd76 wrote:more from that article:

The Rays' rotation of Scott Kazmir (24), James Shields (26), Matt Garza (24) and Andy Sonnanstine (25) is the youngest Series rotation since that of the '69 Mets, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.


....and the "oh **** I feel old" moment:

the Rays have 15 players who weren't even born the last time the Phillies clinched a World Series title on Oct. 21, 1980. Longoria was just 8 years old the last time the Phils were in the Series, in 1993, and Upton was 9.


Yeh, but NONE of us were alive the last time the Rays were in a series. :-D

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Postby CalvinBall » Tue Oct 21, 2008 23:19:14

Hilarious opener on the Daily show involving Mr. Met, The Phanatic, and the two men running for president.

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Postby MattS » Tue Oct 21, 2008 23:58:59

I did a couple of posts on TGP that were pretty extensive. They are in my signature. The team previews talks about the odds, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order wins, and my adjustment for BABIP and comparisons. The player by player splits are a report on all 50 players on the playoff rosters, and their tendencies and splits-- everything from how frequently they swing at strikes vs. balls to lefty/righty splits. It's probably useful during a game if anyone is curious about a particular matchup.

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Postby JFLNYC » Wed Oct 22, 2008 00:05:21

Good stuff there. Thanks, Matt.
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Postby Wizlah » Wed Oct 22, 2008 06:47:25

MattS wrote:I did a couple of posts on TGP that were pretty extensive. They are in my signature. The team previews talks about the odds, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order wins, and my adjustment for BABIP and comparisons. The player by player splits are a report on all 50 players on the playoff rosters, and their tendencies and splits-- everything from how frequently they swing at strikes vs. balls to lefty/righty splits. It's probably useful during a game if anyone is curious about a particular matchup.


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Postby phorever » Wed Oct 22, 2008 09:35:25

MattS wrote:I did a couple of posts on TGP that were pretty extensive. They are in my signature. The team previews talks about the odds, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order wins, and my adjustment for BABIP and comparisons. The player by player splits are a report on all 50 players on the playoff rosters, and their tendencies and splits-- everything from how frequently they swing at strikes vs. balls to lefty/righty splits. It's probably useful during a game if anyone is curious about a particular matchup.


nice job matt. only thing i would like to see that isn't there is an assessment of the impact of changing personnel on the diffferent between season averages and the expected talent level of the playoff team. for the phillies, blanton > kendrick > eaton and post-asb-myers > pre-asb-myers seems to be something that people like sheehan are ignoring. kendrick all by himself has got to be a major contributor to the phillies rotten 2nd order runs allowed.
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Postby FTN » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:47:52

From the World Series Prospectus:

[The Rays] have more talent, 1 through 25, than the Phillies do.

Compare the rosters, and while the Phillies have their share of frontline talent, perhaps even more than the Rays have, the Rays have almost no dead spots on the roster, and are much stronger towards the bottom of the lineup, the back of the rotation, the bullpen, and the bench.


These aren't throwaway lines, but there seemed to be a lightness to them, the air of assertion without evidence. In search of that evidence, we came up with an idea. Throw the two teams' rosters into a pool and have a draft. If there was some kind of disparity in talent, it should show up in the process of picking teams.

All of the details are below, but let's cut to the conclusion: the Rays' talent matches the Phillies through about the first nine roster spots, then obliterates it through the rest of the roster. In the draft, six of the first nine picks were Rays, though you could argue that the ninth pick (Carl Crawford) was a mistake. Even at that, it was even through the first 19 picks: ten Rays, nine Phillies. That's the top of a roster, more or less: a lineup, a starter, a high-leverage reliever.

Fourteen of the next 21 selections were Rays. The entire middle of the draft was Rays. By the time we got through 40 picks, the remaining pool consisted of nine Phillies and Michel Hernandez, who hasn't played yet this postseason. As Jay put it, "Even into the bench and the deeper bullpen, the Rays' players generally wound up getting chosen before their Philly counterparts."

That's the reason to pick the Rays in six, if not sooner. They simply have more talent than the other guys do.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=8236

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Postby FTN » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:52:20

Each of the Phillies’ players have rubber ducks in their lockers, compliments of Manuel, who was inspired by a brief conversation he had with second baseman Chase Utley after the Game 3 loss to the Brewers in the NLDS at Miller Park. Utley thought Manuel had been too tight in that game.
“He said to get that rubber duck out of my (backside),” Manuel said. “So when we clinched over the Dodgers, I figured coming into the World Series that I wanted our players to be loose and play like they always have. So I bought them rubber ducks. Every time before they go out on the field and they lock up in their lockers, they’ll see that duck and it’ll remind to play like they always have.”

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Postby VoxOrion » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:55:50

1210 is running ads claiming they'll be synched up to the World Series TV broadcast.
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Postby CalvinBall » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:56:36

VoxOrion wrote:1210 is running ads claiming they'll be synched up to the World Series TV broadcast.


Seriously?! If true, that is awesome.

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Postby VoxOrion » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:58:35

I wasn't sure if that was news or not, glad I posted it.

Now I have to figure out how to get a good radio in the family room...
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Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:31:24

CalvinBall wrote:
VoxOrion wrote:1210 is running ads claiming they'll be synched up to the World Series TV broadcast.


Seriously?! If true, that is awesome.


WS HD Broadcast, I hope.
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Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:32:44

Vote for Kalas wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:I can't believe he thinks the Rays are THAT much better. The Phillies had the better run differential. Even if you grant that the AL is "harder" than the NL, and that adjusting for the league/schedule difference would show the Rays to be the better team (which they probably are, fine), are they really 90-72 better than the Phillies? That seems absurd.


The Rays beat his beloved nation so of course he is going to think they are much better. Neyer has really become a joke.


Rob Neyer is from Kansas City, and has made it clear on several occasions his "rooting interest" is the Royals. He lives in Seattle. Is it because of the Bill James connection?
"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

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