The Rule of 30 just indicates that a team can't count on a young ace pitcher to carry a team. I think you do what you can by closely monitoring innings and pitch counts, but I wouldn't agree with using excessive measures to follow the Rule of 30 when you're trying to win games.

What it does mean is that the Phillies should go balls out to find an 26-year-old (or older) ace to complement Hamels in case he has arm trouble. One is just as important as the other. I suppose the reason they hadn't done that the past two years is that they think they have that in Brett Myers.

Barry Jive wrote:The Rule of 30 just indicates that a team can't count on a young ace pitcher to carry a team. I think you do what you can by closely monitoring innings and pitch counts, but I wouldn't agree with using excessive measures to follow the Rule of 30 when you're trying to win games.

What it does mean is that the Phillies should go balls out to find an 26-year-old (or older) ace to complement Hamels in case he has arm trouble. One is just as important as the other. I suppose the reason they hadn't done that the past two years is that they think they have that in Brett Myers.

Even if Myers, who started the opener, was that ace this year -- the Myers of the last six starts all year, would the Phils have then limited Hamels somehow? I don't think the Phils, or any team would do that. I'm not sure any team ever has. I randomly picked some guys like Webb, Zambrano, Lincecum and Sabathia and found each of them broke the rule of 30. I wonder if there is a young ace who hasn't?

Kershaw is pretty famous this season for the way the Dodgers limited his pitching this year. But it looks like he threw 122 innings last year at 19 and is at 132.7 this year already. And next year, when he's 21, and if he's in the rotation and doing well and the Dodgers are in a tight race, do you see them shutting him down after he goes 30 more innings than whatever he ends up with this season? What if they make the post season and advance to the World Series next year?

The rule of 30 kinda sucks if you are trying to manage a team and you have a really good young pitcher. I can't see the rule of 30 not being violated at some point with mostly all young ace pitchers.

(There is also winter ball and AFL and the Hawaii League and even spring training games that may effect all of this stuff too -- I guess this can get pretty complicated the more you think about it).

The Phillies a number of times this season sent Hamels back out in situations where it didn't warrant it. I can remember at least 2 games where they had 3-4 run leads and sent him back out for the 8th inning.

The Rule of 30 is not 100%. Nothing is. But why push it? His arm is way too valuable to risk. If he starts 7 more times, let him throw 6 innings max each time, or limit him to a hard count of 100 pitches. I don't really trust them to pull him at the first sign of fatigue. I've harped on and on about the dangers of pitching when fatigued, which is really more important than a pitch count or an innings count. He's basically going to break the Rule of 30 this year anyway. I'd just be careful. If you have a 5 run lead after 6 innings and hes only thrown 90 pitches, why not just pull him? The Phillies and even Hamels to an extent seem to have the macho "he needs to learn how to finish games" concept, but its a bad concept. Until he crosses the age 25 plateau, his arm needs to be taken care of more than just your garden variety 31 year old with 8 years of big league experience.

And a correction, the total from last year should be 190, as he throw 6.2 innings in the postseason.

FTN wrote:The Phillies a number of times this season sent Hamels back out in situations where it didn't warrant it. I can remember at least 2 games where they had 3-4 run leads and sent him back out for the 8th inning.

The Rule of 30 is not 100%. Nothing is. But why push it? His arm is way too valuable to risk. If he starts 7 more times, let him throw 6 innings max each time, or limit him to a hard count of 100 pitches. I don't really trust them to pull him at the first sign of fatigue. I've harped on and on about the dangers of pitching when fatigued, which is really more important than a pitch count or an innings count. He's basically going to break the Rule of 30 this year anyway. I'd just be careful. If you have a 5 run lead after 6 innings and hes only thrown 90 pitches, why not just pull him? The Phillies and even Hamels to an extent seem to have the macho "he needs to learn how to finish games" concept, but its a bad concept. Until he crosses the age 25 plateau, his arm needs to be taken care of more than just your garden variety 31 year old with 8 years of big league experience.

And a correction, the total from last year should be 190, as he throw 6.2 innings in the postseason.

I don't really disagree with anything you say. However, if they hadn't have sent Hamels out for the 8th on those two occasions, his innings count would be at 179 instead of 181. If he had been held back a few more times from pitching an extra inning, he'd be at 176 or 177. He's still going over 30 more IP -- and if the Phils make the playoffs, way over most likely.

I also agree that itr woudl be great if they pulled him after 6 if they have a big lead -- but how many times have they even had a lead when he pitched recently?

I don't think, however, that the Philies will even do that if the situation occurs. I'm not sure how many teams ever have with a young ace. It would be interesting to do a complete study on young aces and how they were used and how many never broke the rule of 30.

The Phils did give Hamels a long rest during the All-Star Break -- I'm really glad he wasn't selected for this reason. And Dubee is talking like he has concern regarding his innings pitched. But I don't see many scenarios in which his innings pitched are limited by very many this season.

It's interesting also, to note that Hamels has thrown 100 or fewer pitches in 6 ofhis last 8 starts. He has averaged around 97 pitches per outing during that time. He has been pretty efficient.

It will be intersting to see if Hamels crosses the injury nexus and becomes a workhorse or if he breaks down by the age of 26. I think it could go either way pretty easily.

FTN wrote:The Phillies a number of times this season sent Hamels back out in situations where it didn't warrant it. I can remember at least 2 games where they had 3-4 run leads and sent him back out for the 8th inning.

The Rule of 30 is not 100%. Nothing is. But why push it? His arm is way too valuable to risk. If he starts 7 more times, let him throw 6 innings max each time, or limit him to a hard count of 100 pitches. I don't really trust them to pull him at the first sign of fatigue. I've harped on and on about the dangers of pitching when fatigued, which is really more important than a pitch count or an innings count. He's basically going to break the Rule of 30 this year anyway. I'd just be careful. If you have a 5 run lead after 6 innings and hes only thrown 90 pitches, why not just pull him? The Phillies and even Hamels to an extent seem to have the macho "he needs to learn how to finish games" concept, but its a bad concept. Until he crosses the age 25 plateau, his arm needs to be taken care of more than just your garden variety 31 year old with 8 years of big league experience.

And a correction, the total from last year should be 190, as he throw 6.2 innings in the postseason.

i hear what you're saying but we aren't talking about an incredible breaking of the rule of 30. the rule of 30 is not that if you're 24.99 years old and throw 30.1 more innings than the year before, you're fine, but if you're 25.01 years old and throw 29.2 more innings than the yera before, you're in the clear.

hamels turns 25 in december. he is on pace to break it by about 35-40 innings.

i'm not saying you don't get concerned about him, but shutting him down like you're rebuilding is unwise. this division will probably be decided by a couple games; his marginal value from now until the end of the season may be nearly as high as missing an entire season at some point when he does not affect whether they make the playoffs or not.

with burrell potentially leaving for free agency, and so many players due raises next year, and even more the next year, the team's best shot at a world series is this year. i'm not advocating throwing him 120-130 pitches a start or pitching him on short rest, just 95-110 pitches, maybe 115 pitches depending on how much stress his arm is under that day or the game situation, and having him make seven solid starts in a pennant race.

I decided not to leave this up to "I remember..." and checked out Hamels' game log from this season. These were all games where the Phils led by 4 runs or more after the sixth inning and trotted out Hamels for another inning.

April 12 vs. Cubs: Phillies lead 5-0, Hamels bats for himself in bottom of the 6th and pitches 7th inning. Phillies win 7-1.

May 15 vs. Braves: Phillies take 5-0 lead in bottom of the 4th, Hamels throws 120 pitches in complete game shutout.

June 5 vs. Reds: Phillies score 4 runs in 3 innings to take 5-0 lead in 7th. Hamels throws 103 pitches in complete game shutout.

June 16 vs. Red Sox: Phillies score 4 runs in 6th inning to take 8-2 lead. Hamels pitches 7th inning, hits for himself in bottom of the 7th and faces one batter in 8th inning. Phillies win 8-2.

June 28 @ Rangers: Phillies score 1 run in top of the 7th to make score 8-4, Hamels pitches bottom of the 7th. Phillies win 8-6.

July 3 @ Braves: Phillies score 1 run in top of the 7th to make score 4-0, Hamels pitches scoreless bottom of the 7th and 8th, and gives up 1 run in the 9th before being removed for Gordon. Hamels throws 125 pitches in the game.

I'd say some of those are excusable, namely only throwing 103 pitches in a CGSO against the Reds, and pitching the 7th when the Phils just earned the 4-run lead at the Rangers. The 125-pitch Braves game was pretty egregious, and it was only close because they left Hamels in to give up a run in the ninth.

But with all of these games, they probably save about five innings. That's not really a significant amount, I don't think, and aside from the odd 120-pitch game, they've actually done a pretty decent job monitoring his pitch counts this year. From looking at his game logs, that Braves game was the exception, not the rule.

ek wrote:Floppy knows a lot more about this than I do. so I won't pretend to get to thoroughly into it. what I do know is that he was throwing harder in his last two starts than I have ever seen him throw. consistently 93-95 mph. that's a positive, at least in my mind

I used one of Floppy's favorite things -- the Pitch fx thingy -- to check this out a bit. (I agree with him that is almost certainly the best way to check a pitcher's heat and stuff).

Anyway, it looks like you may be on to something, Gridley -- although he's not quite in the 93-95 range. I picked a couple of June games in which he threw well and he was pretty much in the 89-92 range. He hit 93 a few times and 94 once. But for the most part he was at 90-91.

In his last two starts it looks like he hit 94 a few times early. But his range was a tad higher than in the June games -- mostly in the 92-93 range it looked to me.

If someone wants to do a more thorough study, go for it -- I think it would be really interesting.

Another thing that struck me as I went through those four games. Hamels dispatches a LOT of guys in 2-4 pitches. I think that might bode well for his future. I hope so anyway. It looks like he threw more fastballs in his last two starts too. But he's not really a power guy as he throws a lot fo changes (of course) and some curve balls in there too. That might end up being a good thing too as he gets his Ks but with a lot of slow stuff in there.

As I said. Its obvious hes going to break the 30 inning barrier. Thats fine. I just wish they'd use him properly. ie, if he's at 100 pitches with a 2 or 3 run lead, then take him out. If a bullpen can't hold a 3 run lead with 9 outs to go, then, well, yeah. If he had a spotless health record in the minors, then there would be less reason for worry, but hes already had 2 DL stints in the big leagues, and he's had arm trouble in the minors.

I guess I'm just concerned long term. I don't view 2008 as one and done like some people. I understand the value of Hamels' innings to the team. I also understand the value of replacing Hamels in the rotation with Adam Eaton.

myers threw 119 yesterday. no mention anywhere. HATERS

VFB wrote:myers threw 119 yesterday. no mention anywhere. HATERS

Older than 25

I love how the management wants to protect Hamels and all, but they're also forgetting that Kendrick will also be pitching the most innings he's ever pitched in the majors.

Also, Hamels isn't even on pace to make 34 starts.

wehatetolose42 wrote:I love how the management wants to protect Hamels and all, but they're also forgetting that Kendrick will also be pitching the most innings he's ever pitched in the majors.

Hamels is a Mercedes. Kendrick is a Ford Fusion, to use the parlance of our front office.

http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/p ... 10363/1014

It is at least being discussed...And how does pitching on normal rest hurt Hamels?

Dubee says it's not going to happen...because Hamels is 4th in innings. Yet, he doesn't understand that Hamels is only 14th in pitches with all of those innings. I mean, it sucks knowing that our pitching coach is that stupid and he runs that staff.

angry fucking bump

Yeah, well, Kendrick's 6th start this year against New York in September is sure to be his best yet!!

kendrick had a 40 minute talk with maddux, wherein maddux basically told him fart jokes and kendrick laughed a little and then said wait what?

Say what you want, but Kyle Kendrick will awkwardly be laying the sticks to this tonight, and most of us save for maybe meatball will be waxing the clown's helmet

They have a chance to right this. The offday on the 4th means Hamels can stay on 4 days rest and pitch the Sunday night game against the Mets, giving us, Myers, Moyer, and Hamels. Start suckass against Fla on Monday.