Taking for granted the do not sign Lohse or Rowand (or any other notable free agent) and make no trades.....basically go into the season with what they have as of right now.

That would be a big step backward, and squandering one of the few remaining opportunities to compete for a world series before they need to start rebuilding.

In my opinion, they need to be much more aggressive in getting deals done they have so far this off season.

Calm. Brett moving back to the rotation and Lidge at the back of the bullpen are 2 upgrades. I can't imagine our team, especially the rotation, being as beat up as it was last season. And I can't see us starting as poorly as we did last season. Right now I see us as a 90 (+/- 3) win team.

85 win team

Can't say I'd be that thrilled in that there continues to be this "woe is us" mentality being projected from the Gillick regime. Maybe they can take the money they don't spend and move the LF fence back another 10 feet (then maybe Randy Wolf will come back in 2009)

They haven't yet made any moves I'd consider bad--certainly nothing like the Nunez signing or Padilla dump of two winters ago, which were obvious mistakes. I like the Lidge deal a lot, and the pickups of Snelling and the minor-league position players (Watson & Restovich) were no-risk, moderate-upside dumpster dives.

They need more pitching, obviously, and I'm not satisfied with Helms/Dobbs as the third-base platoon or Werth/Snelling as an OF corner platoon--though I would be if those two guys weren't so injury-prone.

I still think at least four more relatively important players are coming, but if camp opened today I wouldn't be unduly upset. It's not necessarily 2008-or-bust... other than the likely dropoff in GM quality from Gillick to Amaro, unfortunately.

dajafi wrote:They haven't yet made any moves I'd consider bad.

That's not the same thing as making a good move.

dajafi wrote:They haven't yet made any moves I'd consider bad--certainly nothing like the Nunez signing or Padilla dump of two winters ago, which were obvious mistakes. I like the Lidge deal a lot, and the pickups of Snelling and the minor-league position players (Watson & Restovich) were no-risk, moderate-upside dumpster dives.

They need more pitching, obviously, and I'm not satisfied with Helms/Dobbs as the third-base platoon or Werth/Snelling as an OF corner platoon--though I would be if those two guys weren't so injury-prone.

I still think at least four more relatively important players are coming, but if camp opened today I wouldn't be unduly upset. It's not necessarily 2008-or-bust... other than the likely dropoff in GM quality from Gillick to Amaro, unfortunately.

I'd be happy with two

Team-building isn't done by Opening Day. Successful teams make moves in-season, as opportunities arise. If opening with what we've got provides us flexibility to make a great move in June, rather than a poor one in January, I'm cool.

I still can't understand the reluctance to spend half an Eaton on a medium-to-high ceiling pitcher coming off of injury; we spent two Eatons on Garcia without evaluationg him, and one Eaton on, well, Eaton.

I'd like a non-Helms solution at 3B; despite his pseudo-supporters that pop up occasionally, if he does ANYTHING more than start some games against LHP, we're mis-using him. His entire career, save one season, has consisted of generally sucking against RHP, and relatively excelling against LHP - the "good seasons" are simply the ones with higher concentrations of AB against lefties.

I don't see how we lose 4 wins after upgrading the bullpen and rotation from last year. Or at least I don't think the difference between Werth/Snelling and Rowand is worth 4 wins. With that being said I would feel a lot more comfortable with a Werth/Geoff Jenkins platoon in RF and Snelling as the 4th OF. If we can sign Jenkins I think the offense will be in great shape considering there was only 1 team within 80 runs of us last year. Plus we'll have full seasons from Utley and Howard (barring more injuries of course) which can only help.

Besides Jenkins, I think we need to add one more piece to our rotation and I would be happy with the team going into the season.

I think it's safe to assume that our bullpen won't blow nearly as many leads as this past season, but I also think it's safe to assume that we won't mount nearly as many late game, heroic comebacks (many of them necessitated by the former) as 2007, either. 90 wins!

It seems like many of you have more faith in Myers than I do. But say I'm wrong about Myers as a starter--then yes, we have upgrade our rotation. Except that we still have a 45 year old starter we're depending on (a guy who went more than 6 innings exactly once in his last 10 starts) and you're also counting on another good year from Kendrick, something many here doubt. I don't really see how we've upgraded the BP--is Lidge going to be better than Myers? He might be as good, but that's not an upgrade, that's staying even.

We've downgraded our outfield with the loss of Rowand's production, we still don't have a great option at 3rd, and while I love Jimmy, I have every reason to believe he won't do as well next year. Yeah, we might get a full year out of Utley this time. But injuries are bound to happen somewhere on the roster.

The real reason I'm irritated is that all of these issue are addressable. There's no reason for the team to stand pat. (So, thanks. By posing this hypothetical, you've managed to get me upset.) Spend some money, make some deals--win now!

TenuredVulture wrote:It seems like many of you have more faith in Myers than I do. But say I'm wrong about Myers as a starter--then yes, we have upgrade our rotation. Except that we still have a 45 year old starter we're depending on (a guy who went more than 6 innings exactly once in his last 10 starts) and you're also counting on another good year from Kendrick, something many here doubt. I don't really see how we've upgraded the BP--is Lidge going to be better than Myers? He might be as good, but that's not an upgrade, that's staying even.

Lidge is at the very least a mild upgrade over Brett as a closer, with the potential (based on his track record) to be a substantial upgrade.

I'm not happy about having to count on Moyer and I'm as suspicious about Kyle as anyone else until he improves his K/9 a bit, but I've got a lot of faith in Brett as a starter. Assuming Eaton can't be any worse and we don't have to deal with Garcia, I think our starting pitching is serviceable. I don't think we can make it through the season with what we've got now, but then, I expect us to add at least 2-3 quality arms by the time August rolls around.

TenuredVulture wrote:I don't really see how we've upgraded the BP--is Lidge going to be better than Myers? He might be as good, but that's not an upgrade, that's staying even.

Well, the hope is that the entire back end of the BP won't miss huge amounts of time like last year. The Romero/Gordon/Myers thing worked well in September, and hopefully Madson will pitch like he did before he got hurt.

Plus no Mesa

MoBettle wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:I don't really see how we've upgraded the BP--is Lidge going to be better than Myers? He might be as good, but that's not an upgrade, that's staying even.

Well, the hope is that the entire back end of the BP won't miss huge amounts of time like last year. The Romero/Gordon/Myers thing worked well in September, and hopefully Madson will pitch like he did before he got hurt.

Plus no Mesa

I know I keep mentioning this and not to be a pollyanna, but I believe we're going to get some good work out of the Castro/Rosario/Mathieson/Durbin/Bisenius/Zagurski collection of "young guys with stuff but no polish" in 2008. That's a lot of good arms more or less stacked on the border of AAA/MLB.

I voted irate/furious but am somewhere between that and ok/calm -- closer to irate. I do not see Lidge as an upgrade on Myers as closer. The guy is on a downtrend. I certainly don't see adding Lidge and losing Rowland and Lohse as a net plus. At this point we are a weaker team than the one we finished 2007 with.

The Phillies have the $ from increased revenues and should be aiming for a repeat trip to playoffs. We need more pitching. We need to not strip the farm in getting that pitching. The minimum test of seriousness is signing Silva or resigning Lohse. That does not make the team too expensive. There were other upgrade options that we did not take. These two are pretty much the bottom line.

JUST DO IT!

MoBettle wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:I don't really see how we've upgraded the BP--is Lidge going to be better than Myers? He might be as good, but that's not an upgrade, that's staying even.

Well, the hope is that the entire back end of the BP won't miss huge amounts of time like last year. The Romero/Gordon/Myers thing worked well in September, and hopefully Madson will pitch like he did before he got hurt.

Plus no Mesa

OK. Hoping last year's guys do better is fine, but it really isn't an upgrade.

I think we're weaker as it stands, I suppose Gillick still had time to fix it.

* A full season of Howard, Utley and Burrell should produce good results

* Victorino will be a decline from Rowand in CF offensively. I know people knocked Rowand's defense, but by advanced metrics, he was still above average. I don't think Victorino will offset the downgrade in offense. Of course, Rowand could tank, which some are predicting, then it would just be a downgrade in general from the 2007 production there

* Right field is a giant question mark. Werth/Snelling/Dobbs could be productive, but the former two are big injury risks, and Dobbs...well, he's merely average, if that, at a corner OF spot

* 3B is still a black hole, and more troubling, the Phillies seem to feel it isn't a priority.

* Our starting rotation is still a mess. Hamels is a stud. Myers is pissed that he's being forced to start again. If his head isn't into it, the results could be ugly again. I know everyone is cheerfully projecting him to put up 210 innings with a 3.65 ERA, but that's in a perfect world vacuum. We all know Myers has issues, and if he's not 100% committed to the cause, the wheels could come off there. After him, we have Moyer, who is likely to have an ERA closer to 6 than 5, a 2nd year pitcher with terrible peripherals, and a whole lot of unproven arms with very little major league experience. Lohse wasn't a star, but Lohse, if signed right now, is our 3rd best starting pitcher.

* Lidge is going to be better this year than last I think. Outside of that though, the same questions still persist. Romero is re-signed, but which Romero are we getting? Madson needs to be healthy, but I don't know that I'm ready to just mark him down for 70 IP with a 3.25 ERA. Gordon's arm is a curveball away from flying into the visiting dugout. Then again a whole lot of unproven arms. I think Alfonseca or Mesa could come back, and it will make me sick all over again.

85 wins, as it stands. The Mets have made some puzzling moves, but I'm fairly convinced they will make one big move before spring training to improve their team, and sign at least 1 starter in the Lohse/Silva mold.

Everybody seems to be yelling "Spend some money, spend some money" but if Gillick signed Rowand @ 4/$72m people would be hitting the roof. Y'all can't have it both ways. Rowand is one of the few impact outfield options left; the Phils are gonna have to pay to bring him back.

traderdave wrote:Everybody seems to be yelling "Spend some money, spend some money" but if Gillick signed Rowand @ 4/$72m people would be hitting the roof. Y'all can't have it both ways. Rowand is one of the few impact outfield options left; the Phils are gonna have to pay to bring him back.

There are other options there that don't entail blowing a lot of money, but they require creative solutions, and thus, I don't see them as feasable