traderdave wrote:Everybody seems to be yelling "Spend some money, spend some money" but if Gillick signed Rowand @ 4/$72m people would be hitting the roof. Y'all can't have it both ways. Rowand is one of the few impact outfield options left; the Phils are gonna have to pay to bring him back.

When did 'spend more money' become synonymous with 'spend a lot of money really stupidly'? Spend some more money wisely, as in signing Silva or Lohse for basically an Eaton contract addresses our major need and makes sense for the team over the length of the contract. We'll likely have a starter come up from the farm fofr 2009, but Moyer will be gone then. Big bucks to Rowand for 4-5 years just kills us at the end of the contract, if not for most of it, maybe even 2008.

allentown wrote:

traderdave wrote:Everybody seems to be yelling "Spend some money, spend some money" but if Gillick signed Rowand @ 4/$72m people would be hitting the roof. Y'all can't have it both ways. Rowand is one of the few impact outfield options left; the Phils are gonna have to pay to bring him back.

When did 'spend more money' become synonymous with 'spend a lot of money really stupidly'? Spend some more money wisely, as in signing Silva or Lohse for basically an Eaton contract addresses our major need and makes sense for the team over the length of the contract. We'll likely have a starter come up from the farm fofr 2009, but Moyer will be gone then. Big bucks to Rowand for 4-5 years just kills us at the end of the contract, if not for most of it, maybe even 2008.

You really think it would make sense "over the life of the contract"? That seems unrealistic to me.

Next year we'll need yet another pitcher and I'd rather have 16 million to spend on someone who might actually be good rather than getting one fair pitcher now for 8 and another one next year for 8 to replace him. Lohse and Silva are better than Eaton, but not by much.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:

allentown wrote:

traderdave wrote:Everybody seems to be yelling "Spend some money, spend some money" but if Gillick signed Rowand @ 4/$72m people would be hitting the roof. Y'all can't have it both ways. Rowand is one of the few impact outfield options left; the Phils are gonna have to pay to bring him back.

When did 'spend more money' become synonymous with 'spend a lot of money really stupidly'? Spend some more money wisely, as in signing Silva or Lohse for basically an Eaton contract addresses our major need and makes sense for the team over the length of the contract. We'll likely have a starter come up from the farm fofr 2009, but Moyer will be gone then. Big bucks to Rowand for 4-5 years just kills us at the end of the contract, if not for most of it, maybe even 2008.

You really think it would make sense "over the life of the contract"? That seems unrealistic to me.

Next year we'll need yet another pitcher and I'd rather have 16 million to spend on someone who might actually be good rather than getting one fair pitcher now for 8 and another one next year for 8 to replace him. Lohse and Silva are better than Eaton, but not by much.

Given the state of the franchise, I think they need to go all out and win now. We've got maybe a 3 year window at this point, after which we'll enter a painful rebuilding process. Reduced flexibility in the future is a small price to pay for a world series now.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Next year we'll need yet another pitcher and I'd rather have 16 million to spend on someone who might actually be good rather than getting one fair pitcher now for 8 and another one next year for 8 to replace him. Lohse and Silva are better than Eaton, but not by much.

I agree, but the problem is that it's unlikely the Phillies will ever get free agents to come pitch for them. Your premise still works insomuch as they can use the payroll flexibility to take on salary through trade--that's true now; they just don't have the prospects to get a Bedard or Haren--but they could have the Yankee budget and I'm not sure they would ever be able to entice free-agent pitchers.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Lohse and Silva are better than Eaton, but not by much.

I think Eaton is starting to get an undeserved rep of "he's decent but had a bad year.". The dude sucks.

8 years in the majors... only once, in his rookie year, has he posted even a league-average ERA. 7 consecutive years of below-average ERA. His WHIP, once decent, has risen 3 straight years. He's a mess.

That said, Lohse isn't any better, and - while Silva's had better results - I wouldn't sign Carlos Silva to a 4 year deal with anyone's money. I have ZERO faith that Silva will even be in the league in 3 years. I believe that once removed from the Metrodome, his abysmal rate stats - hits, k's, homers - will kill him.

I'd save my money if those are the "big names". As stated before, I have no problem throwing a few million at Jason Jennings, or making a play for Prior, but Lohse and Silva are no more worth what they're commanding than Eaton was last year. The Eaton signing to this day defies explanation.... a crappy pitcher, with no other bidders, gets a ridiculous salary, and 4 years. Let's not do it again.

dajafi wrote:

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Next year we'll need yet another pitcher and I'd rather have 16 million to spend on someone who might actually be good rather than getting one fair pitcher now for 8 and another one next year for 8 to replace him. Lohse and Silva are better than Eaton, but not by much.

I agree, but the problem is that it's unlikely the Phillies will ever get free agents to come pitch for them. Your premise still works insomuch as they can use the payroll flexibility to take on salary through trade--that's true now; they just don't have the prospects to get a Bedard or Haren--but they could have the Yankee budget and I'm not sure they would ever be able to entice free-agent pitchers.

That's the team's fault, not the park's fault. Fenway has both one-year and three-year numbers that show it's a better hitter's park than OFJOAB, yet people line up to play there. Our front office is HORRIBLE. This organization is out-managed, out-promoted, out-maneuvered, and out-played on a constant basis. They have ZERO aggressiveness, no desire to think outside the box, and yet they're smug.

Think about this: We *HAD* Iguchi on this team, with everyone from the papers to the fans begging for him to get a crack at 3B, as the playoffs were within reach. The team said absolutely not, he can't do it, they won't ask. Now, he's on the market, other teams have interest in him at 3B, and NOW the Phillies considering a MULTI-YEAR deal to play him there.

Gillick / Amaro / etc., and the owners as a whole, make me want to puke.

TenuredVulture wrote:Given the state of the franchise, I think they need to go all out and win now. We've got maybe a 3 year window at this point, after which we'll enter a painful rebuilding process. Reduced flexibility in the future is a small price to pay for a world series now.

Why is that written in stone? And what about years 2 and 3? You seem willing to throw them away for next year. And would even Lohse AND Silva make the Phillies a real competitor with the Sox or Indians next World Series?

Shore wrote:

dajafi wrote:

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Next year we'll need yet another pitcher and I'd rather have 16 million to spend on someone who might actually be good rather than getting one fair pitcher now for 8 and another one next year for 8 to replace him. Lohse and Silva are better than Eaton, but not by much.

I agree, but the problem is that it's unlikely the Phillies will ever get free agents to come pitch for them. Your premise still works insomuch as they can use the payroll flexibility to take on salary through trade--that's true now; they just don't have the prospects to get a Bedard or Haren--but they could have the Yankee budget and I'm not sure they would ever be able to entice free-agent pitchers.

That's the team's fault, not the park's fault. Fenway has both one-year and three-year numbers that show it's a better hitter's park than OFJOAB, yet people line up to play there. Our front office is HORRIBLE. This organization is out-managed, out-promoted, out-maneuvered, and out-played on a constant basis. They have ZERO aggressiveness, no desire to think outside the box, and yet they're smug.

Think about this: We *HAD* Iguchi on this team, with everyone from the papers to the fans begging for him to get a crack at 3B, as the playoffs were within reach. The team said absolutely not, he can't do it, they won't ask. Now, he's on the market, other teams have interest in him at 3B, and NOW the Phillies considering a MULTI-YEAR deal to play him there.

Gillick / Amaro / etc., and the owners as a whole, make me want to puke.

You're preaching to the depressed choir. All on the mark. The Iguchi thing is almost funny, though to be fair the only reason he's back on the radar is that he couldn't get the deal he wanted to play 2b. The Phils did contact him, as I remember, about coming back on a deal as the third baseman, and he turned them down.

Shore wrote:

dajafi wrote:

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Next year we'll need yet another pitcher and I'd rather have 16 million to spend on someone who might actually be good rather than getting one fair pitcher now for 8 and another one next year for 8 to replace him. Lohse and Silva are better than Eaton, but not by much.

I agree, but the problem is that it's unlikely the Phillies will ever get free agents to come pitch for them. Your premise still works insomuch as they can use the payroll flexibility to take on salary through trade--that's true now; they just don't have the prospects to get a Bedard or Haren--but they could have the Yankee budget and I'm not sure they would ever be able to entice free-agent pitchers.

That's the team's fault, not the park's fault. Fenway has both one-year and three-year numbers that show it's a better hitter's park than OFJOAB, yet people line up to play there. Our front office is HORRIBLE. This organization is out-managed, out-promoted, out-maneuvered, and out-played on a constant basis. They have ZERO aggressiveness, no desire to think outside the box, and yet they're smug.

Think about this: We *HAD* Iguchi on this team, with everyone from the papers to the fans begging for him to get a crack at 3B, as the playoffs were within reach. The team said absolutely not, he can't do it, they won't ask. Now, he's on the market, other teams have interest in him at 3B, and NOW the Phillies considering a MULTI-YEAR deal to play him there.

Gillick / Amaro / etc., and the owners as a whole, make me want to puke.

I agree 100%. Contrary to what the apologists say, from the top down, they are still living in the 1970's.

ekravitz wrote:correct, when Utley came back last year, they asked Iguchi if he wanted to play 3B and he said he wouldn't feel comfortable there. I can understand that because he would have been thrown there in a pennant race without practice at that position

he might have gotten robersowned

Keeping your powder dry is a nice rationalization for doing nothing. Alas, you simply can't ever expect to win in major league baseball unless you execute a strategy.

You make a decision--are we going to go for it? Are we going to go out and get those missing pieces we need to compete now? Or, are we going to re-build for the long term--trade a few big names away and restock our minor league system.

Each comes with significant risk--you go for it, and there's no guarantee that it just doesn't work--some kid sitting in the bleachers robs a homerun that would have won the pennant, you get Andruw Jones, and it ends up being 2007 for him all over again.

Trading a player that can get you a bunch of top prospects back will alienate a huge chunk of your fan base, some of whom you may never win back.

But either one of those, with their attendant risks is better than aiming for a 85-90 win team that might make the post season as long as the Mets collapse and the Braves continue to under-perform and the Marlins stay cheap and the Nats play like they did in Montreal. For 100 or so years, the idea behind the Phillis is to try to catch lightning in a bottle. It's worked exactly one time.

Hope is not a strategy.

I understand where everybody is coming from but it isn't as if there are a million options out there. Rowand is going to be expensive, Santana and Bedard seem unattainable, and maybe not just to the Phillies. They went hard after Lowell and Wolf but Lowell wanted to stay in Boston and Wolf wanted to stay on the West Coast; what can the Phils do about that?

I'm disappointed that they didn't seem to make a play for Jones but $18m IS a lot of money. Best case is that, despite being the last big impact outfielder left, Rowand still demands too much. If he sits around long enough, he'll come down or maybe even accept arb.

Everybody pined for Myers to be freed from the bullpen and now he is; and how does he react but to bitch and moan about it. Maybe the answer is to package him and some prospects for Bedard. I would love to see Prior in a Phils uniform but things have been quiet on that front. Within the division, the Phillies are the only team that has made any significant moves (does signing Glavine count as a significant move for the Braves?). I just think that sometimes the best moves are the moves not made.

Also, in terms of Rowand, if Victorino can't be traded for something substantial, doesn't he make a ton more sense as the center-fielder going forward? If Vic is on the team, he's an offensive liability anywhere but CF. Getting Rowand before you trade him is taking a huge risk that you'll be able to get something really good for Shane later on.

No way thats crazy isnt it?

doesn't Werth also have a good arm? plus I would think Victorino's insane speed would be more helpful in CF. who cares about trying to throw out guys going to third

I've got this pet theory that a strong arm is more valuable in center field anyway, since the CF gets more balls and thus makes more throws. Plus CF is the deepest part of the park, partially offsetting the extra distance for the throw to 3B.

phuturephillies wrote:I think we're weaker as it stands, I suppose Gillick still had time to fix it.

* A full season of Howard, Utley and Burrell should produce good results

* Victorino will be a decline from Rowand in CF offensively. I know people knocked Rowand's defense, but by advanced metrics, he was still above average. I don't think Victorino will offset the downgrade in offense. Of course, Rowand could tank, which some are predicting, then it would just be a downgrade in general from the 2007 production there

* Right field is a giant question mark. Werth/Snelling/Dobbs could be productive, but the former two are big injury risks, and Dobbs...well, he's merely average, if that, at a corner OF spot

* 3B is still a black hole, and more troubling, the Phillies seem to feel it isn't a priority.

* Our starting rotation is still a mess. Hamels is a stud. Myers is pissed that he's being forced to start again. If his head isn't into it, the results could be ugly again. I know everyone is cheerfully projecting him to put up 210 innings with a 3.65 ERA, but that's in a HAMELS world vacuum. We all know Myers has issues, and if he's not 100% committed to the cause, the wheels could come off there. After him, we have Moyer, who is likely to have an ERA closer to 6 than 5, a 2nd year pitcher with terrible peripherals, and a whole lot of unproven arms with very little major league experience. Lohse wasn't a star, but Lohse, if signed right now, is our 3rd best starting pitcher.

* Lidge is going to be better this year than last I think. Outside of that though, the same questions still persist. Romero is re-signed, but which Romero are we getting? Madson needs to be healthy, but I don't know that I'm ready to just mark him down for 70 IP with a 3.25 ERA. Gordon's arm is a curveball away from flying into the visiting dugout. Then again a whole lot of unproven arms. I think Alfonseca or Mesa could come back, and it will make me sick all over again.

85 wins, as it stands. The Mets have made some puzzling moves, but I'm fairly convinced they will make one big move before spring training to improve their team, and sign at least 1 starter in the Lohse/Silva mold.

But offensively the only difference is you are subbing Rowand for Werth/Snelling/FA Signing since Victorino was already in the starting lineup. Why does it matter that he is moving to CF? He would put up the same numbers whether he was playing RF or CF. Do you really believe Rowand is that much better than the 2 or 3 headed monster in RF to give him a 4 or 5 year contract for 50 to 60 million? I sure don't. I mentioned this in another thread but I would be thrilled with a Geoff Jenkins signing to sure up the outfield and slide Snelling to the bench. I still think that signing is possible and I can definitely live with a 2/16 contract. He has an .883 career OPS vs righties. If you sign him I don't think you lose anything offensively with the loss of Rowand. Plus if Snelling can stay healthy it makes your bench better than it was last year.

As far as the rotation goes I do think we need to add one more piece most likely through trade. We know we don't have enough to get any of the premier starters that are available so they are out . So the question is are you willing to give a crappy pitcher 10-12 million for 4 or 5 years? Lohse has been both a tick above average and a little below average the past couple of years. I don't know why everyone thinks he is Cy Young all of a sudden. Silva wouldn't be a bad signing for 3/24 or something like that but some desperate team is going to give him 40 or 50 million. Everybody is worried about Kendrick's low K rate but Silva's is even worse so why not roll the dice with Kendrick and save the 40-50 million for future moves? Again I'm sure we would regret either signing almost immediately and people will be complaining within a month or two.

I would love a Prior trade. I have no problem taking a chance on one of the guys coming back from injury i.e. Benson or Colon. I would also be fine with a Livan Hernandez signing. If Pittsburgh is dumb enough to trade Ian Snell for something like Carrasco and Cardenas I do it without thinking twice. .

And regarding that Salisbury article in that other thread, we have seen Gillick say one thing and do another time and time again. Why people are so gullible to believe him I have no idea.

phuturephillies wrote:There are other options there that don't entail blowing a lot of money, but they require creative solutions, and thus, I don't see them as feasable

Let's hear some of your creative solutions--minus the Prior idea that has already been put out. (honest question, no sarcasm intended)

Phight On!:
I agree with everything you said. My thinking is that I'd rather gamble on some pitcher emerging during ST, than to risk giving a multi-year deal to any pitcher (not named Kuroda or Prior). Maybe it's risky, but I'd rather take my chance on obtaining a starter mid season by trade than by mortgaging the future payroll now on mediocre pitchers like Lohse or Silva.

Maybe it's just because of basketball season, but right now, I view payroll flexibility as one of the greatest attributes a team can have.

I'm not happy I'm not irate. I'm gravely concerned.

I'm sold on Moyer and his age and his slide in produciton
Kendrick needs to do it for more than one stint, he could totally unravel.
Eaton should be cut and pay the price.
Myers -- I believe in his talent, but I'm not sure where his head is at?
Hamels is great, but he scares me with his arm and injury --

I think the team can absorb sub-standard 3B platoon and the loss of Rowand, because they have so much fire-power. But they have not gotten serious about the pitching.

At this point now, I'd feel more secure with Lohse than nothing, and as others have said, things can happen in season, but how many times have we bemoaned difficult Aprils? I don't want to see another thread in April about how we can be at .500 by June 1st... 93 Phils jumped out to a nice start and held on, they were stronger early than late but it helps a lot to get that distance. They got strong in divisional as Schilling was hot.

If Hamels and Myers both are as productive as we can imagine and stay healthy all year missing very few starts or any DL time, then that is improvement -- but the Phils despite a thin farm and not wanting to decimate what's left, I think they are capable of doing more than they have.

If you don't spend the dough on Rowand you should have some extra for something else?