thephan wrote:

We’ll resume polling in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District soon.
A vulnerable incumbent in an increasingly Democratic district. We’ve made 11844 calls, and 124 people have spoken to us so far.

Just over 1% calls answered. That seem pretty amazing to put that much energy into such a result.

Isn't a computer just dialing?

heyeaglefn wrote:

thephan wrote:

We’ll resume polling in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District soon.
A vulnerable incumbent in an increasingly Democratic district. We’ve made 11844 calls, and 124 people have spoken to us so far.

Just over 1% calls answered. That seem pretty amazing to put that much energy into such a result.

Isn't a computer just dialing?

Not sure if they're using a predictive dialer, but the technology is there to have dozens of people dialed at once, and route the connected calls with a waiting rep.

You can only use a computer to dial landlines. Due to federal regs you have to dial cell phones by hand.

BETO raised $38 million last quarter

Which is a stupid amount of money

JH - do you think he has any realistic chance of winning? I guess a lot could depend on his solo performance during the town hall next week?

Scott Wagner is going to hold a rally in Philly with Diamond and Silk.

I mean

traderdave wrote:JH - do you think he has any realistic chance of winning? I guess a lot could depend on his solo performance during the town hall next week?

All the polls look like it is drifting away from him, but there's still time for things to move back in the other direction. 538 has it at 22%, which seems fair. Don't think the town hall will have much impact one way or the other.

I would say Beto has a chance, but Cruz is the favorite. Though I think he could potentially pick up a bit of momentum in the remaining weeks, Beto's chances depend on believing in the possibility that the polls are systematically underestimating Beto's support. This is possible, because as you've noted, polling response rates are increasingly low. So far, this hasn't been a huge problem (in that polls have done a reasonably good job at predicting final outcome) but it's certainly a possible source for error. But in my opinion, the real question is the ability of the polls to predict turnout. How good are the likely voter models? Are they underestimating for instance how likely young voters are to turn out? Given Beto's money, he should have a solid GOTV ground game, and that might be enough to make a difference.

heyeaglefn wrote:Isn't a computer just dialing?

I was only thinking that it is astounding that there were so many calls with no answer. I guess I am plenty guilty of this because it seems like a year round event, and I let a lot of calls go to voicemail. Wildly there was not a call at all last night from anyone where as we are generally good for 4 or 5 a night year round. No polls, no shifty "charities", no nothing.

thephan wrote:

heyeaglefn wrote:Isn't a computer just dialing?

I was only thinking that it is astounding that there were so many calls with no answer. I guess I am plenty guilty of this because it seems like a year round event, and I let a lot of calls go to voicemail. Wildly there was not a call at all last night from anyone where as we are generally good for 4 or 5 a night year round. No polls, no shifty "charities", no nothing.

It's not just people not answering the phone. They show refusals to participate or wrong numbers as no answers too.

NYT is polling off a voter list and I think asking for exact person, which means they'd call you and ask to speak to you. If they called your house landline and your wife picked up but they were trying to talk to you and you weren't available, that'd go down as a no answer.

The benefit of exact person is you can use everything off the voter file - most importantly vote history & party registration (in party reg states). The downside is it takes a lot more time and costs more because response rates are necessarily lower.

traderdave wrote:JH - do you think he has any realistic chance of winning? I guess a lot could depend on his solo performance during the town hall next week?

I think that Cruz could only be hurt by participating in that town hall (which is probably why he declined).

It is depressing that this race is so close.

Dina Powell withdraws from consideration for UN. Hmmm, I've only seen one other name floated of the 'list of 5 candidates' and I have low confidence.

I agree but also think, probably incorrectly, that he is also hurt by NOT participating in it. I understand that like Trumpies, Cruzies' minds cannot be changed (probably just like Beto's hardcore supporters won't be swayed). I'm thinking about the undecideds or maybe those only slightly favoring Cruz. Maybe there aren't enough to make a difference but my first thoughts would be "what is Cruz afraid of" or "what could be more important than talking directly to the voters".

traderdave wrote:I agree but also think, probably incorrectly, that he is also hurt by NOT participating in it. I understand that like Trumpies, Cruzies' minds cannot be changed (probably just like Beto's hardcore supporters won't be swayed). I'm thinking about the undecideds or maybe those only slightly favoring Cruz. Maybe there aren't enough to make a difference but my first thoughts would be "what is Cruz afraid of" or "what could be more important than talking directly to the voters".

They already did a debate and are doing another one next week. He's campaigning & talking directly to voters. He's just not doing a CNN town hall.

Oh, I didn't realize they had another debate coming. Thanks!

pacino wrote:Scott Wanger is going to hold a rally in Philly with Diamond and Silk.

I mean

He had a FB Live event where he threatened to stomp on Tom Wolf's face with golf cleats

pacino wrote:

pacino wrote:Scott Wanger is going to hold a rally in Philly with Diamond and Silk.

I mean

He had a FB Live event where he threatened to stomp on Tom Wolf's face with golf cleats

This guy seems like he struggles

Imagine the privilege on display by including golf cleats as part of your threat of violence.

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:

pacino wrote:Scott Wanger is going to hold a rally in Philly with Diamond and Silk.

I mean

He had a FB Live event where he threatened to stomp on Tom Wolf's face with golf cleats

This guy seems like he struggles

He's one of the worst statewide politicians in a long time. Lynn Swann may have lost by 20 points but at least he seemed like he had fun running for office.

pacino wrote:

pacino wrote:Scott Wanger is going to hold a rally in Philly with Diamond and Silk.

I mean

He had a FB Live event where he threatened to stomp on Tom Wolf's face with golf cleats

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1050 ... 86016?s=19

Lol what