Dead heat in NJ-03 per Monmouth.

Manafort didn't call any witnesses or provide any defense. Just banking on a pardon, I guess.

jerseyhoya wrote:Dead heat in NJ-03 per Monmouth.

Lol!

My newest fear is that Menendez loses because democrats somehow couldn't put someone up to beat his corrupt ass in an extremely blue state. This brought on by the onslaught of NJ Senate ads hitting the airwaves these days.

jerseyhoya wrote:Dead heat in NJ-03 per Monmouth.

I know Cook and Sabato have the Chris Smith in the 4th as a sure thing, but if the race in the 3rd is this tight, wouldn't the 4th be somewhat tighter than Solid Republican? I know Trump won pretty comfortably, and it is R+8, but when I visited in July, it did seem that Zelle was pretty well organized, and he does have some money. I mean, in this climate, a viable Dem in a R+8 district, particularly in a suburban district with lots of college educated voters should have something of a chance. I am a bit surprised to see that the 3rd is R +2, I would have thought the 4th would be slightly less R than the 3rd.

pacino wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Dead heat in NJ-03 per Monmouth.

Lol!

It's a competitive district - Obama won it by 5 points back in 2012, Trump won by 6 in 2016. It's also the most expensive district in the country as it's split basically in half between the Philly and NYC markets, so it's tough to build up name ID either as a candidate or even as the incumbent - poll has MacArthur undefined to over half of voters.

TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Dead heat in NJ-03 per Monmouth.

I know Cook and Sabato have the Chris Smith in the 4th as a sure thing, but if the race in the 3rd is this tight, wouldn't the 4th be somewhat tighter than Solid Republican? I know Trump won pretty comfortably, and it is R+8, but when I visited in July, it did seem that Zelle was pretty well organized, and he does have some money. I mean, in this climate, a viable Dem in a R+8 district, particularly in a suburban district with lots of college educated voters should have something of a chance. I am a bit surprised to see that the 3rd is R +2, I would have thought the 4th would be slightly less R than the 3rd.

The 4th is a much more Republican district & Smith is an institution.

pacino wrote:Manafort didn't call any witnesses or provide any defense. Just banking on a pardon, I guess.

Or his attorney thought the state’s case was weak enough and their cross examination strong enough for at least a hung jury. No reason to give the prosecution a chance to rehabilitate its case with strong CE of defense witnesses.

jerseyhoya wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Dead heat in NJ-03 per Monmouth.

I know Cook and Sabato have the Chris Smith in the 4th as a sure thing, but if the race in the 3rd is this tight, wouldn't the 4th be somewhat tighter than Solid Republican? I know Trump won pretty comfortably, and it is R+8, but when I visited in July, it did seem that Zelle was pretty well organized, and he does have some money. I mean, in this climate, a viable Dem in a R+8 district, particularly in a suburban district with lots of college educated voters should have something of a chance. I am a bit surprised to see that the 3rd is R +2, I would have thought the 4th would be slightly less R than the 3rd.

The 4th is a much more Republican district & Smith is an institution.

On the other hand, Smith's pretty far right as a social conservative, which I would guess is out of step with the district as currently configured: His campaign website doesn't mention it, so he clearly does not see it as a political asset. (I know his religious views have led him to take some interesting positions on things like capital punishment and human rights.) And how hard would it be to paint him as a "career politician"? Again, I see why he's favored, but I'm not sure Cook and Sabato aren't underestimating the challenges Rs might face this cycle.

Penn Gillette confirms that Trump used racially and sexually insensitive language during the Aprrentice

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... ssion=true

Teller also knows but isn't talking

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:
Teller also knows but isn't talking

TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Dead heat in NJ-03 per Monmouth.

I know Cook and Sabato have the Chris Smith in the 4th as a sure thing, but if the race in the 3rd is this tight, wouldn't the 4th be somewhat tighter than Solid Republican? I know Trump won pretty comfortably, and it is R+8, but when I visited in July, it did seem that Zelle was pretty well organized, and he does have some money. I mean, in this climate, a viable Dem in a R+8 district, particularly in a suburban district with lots of college educated voters should have something of a chance. I am a bit surprised to see that the 3rd is R +2, I would have thought the 4th would be slightly less R than the 3rd.

The 4th is a much more Republican district & Smith is an institution.

On the other hand, Smith's pretty far right as a social conservative, which I would guess is out of step with the district as currently configured: His campaign website doesn't mention it, so he clearly does not see it as a political asset. (I know his religious views have led him to take some interesting positions on things like capital punishment and human rights.) And how hard would it be to paint him as a "career politician"? Again, I see why he's favored, but I'm not sure Cook and Sabato aren't underestimating the challenges Rs might face this cycle.

He won by 2-1 margins in 2006 and 2008, the district is more Republican now and he's never been shy about disliking abortion. The Democrat would do very well to hold him under 60%.

on the march in PA29; Bernie O'Neill drops out on the last day to withdraw. The GOP will now appoint someone to run

is that good or bad?

WHOMEVER the Democrat is that for that race, it's a lot easier to run against a new face instead of an incumbent Republican that has brought back the pork for several cycles

pacino wrote:WHOMEVER the Democrat is that for that race, it's a lot easier to run against a new face instead of an incumbent Republican that has brought back the pork for several cycles

Probably some scrub nominated for that district.

slugsrbad wrote:

pacino wrote:WHOMEVER the Democrat is that for that race, it's a lot easier to run against a new face instead of an incumbent Republican that has brought back the pork for several cycles

Probably some scrub nominated for that district.

i hear it's some pro-corporate goon that refuses to knock doors

omarosa tells katy tur that trump knew about hacked emails before they were released and that she has spoken with mueller

thephan wrote:

thephan wrote:Florida Legislature primary candidate faked her education credentials, then back it up with a fake diploma. The University did not have a degree in Marketing back in the day, but that is one of the things wrong with the document she produced as proof.

She is sorry and will set a better example. She is staying in the race.

Melissa Howard, the GOP candidate for a Florida state House seat who was accused of lying about her college degree and NRA rating apologized on Monday, pledging to stay in the race “and lead by example from now on.”

Annnnd she's gone.

pacino wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

pacino wrote:WHOMEVER the Democrat is that for that race, it's a lot easier to run against a new face instead of an incumbent Republican that has brought back the pork for several cycles

Probably some scrub nominated for that district.

i hear it's some pro-corporate goon that refuses to knock doors

looks to be this weird looking dude