i dont think joe sheehan actually understands performance analysis. i'm not really sure he can do long division. surely, the leverage of a sept 8 win with a 2 game difference is higher than the leverage of a april 8 win with a 2 game difference. the nationals highest leverage games are in april, the phillies highest leverage games are in september. the standard deviation of any team's performance relative to its abilities is about 6-7 games over the last 159 games of a season. over the last 20 games in a season, the standard deviation is a couple of games. there's a gigantic difference between a two-game swing when the vast majority of teams will be within 3 games of each over the last 20 games and when only a couple of good teams will be within 3 games of each other. thinking through his articles, i'm not really sure he's ever shown any ability to do performance analysis from a statistical perspective at all. he's just the figurehead who writes about the stuff davenport and silver did years ago.

MattS wrote:i dont think joe sheehan actually understands performance analysis. i'm not really sure he can do long division. surely, the leverage of a sept 8 win with a 2 game difference is higher than the leverage of a april 8 win with a 2 game difference. the nationals highest leverage games are in april, the phillies highest leverage games are in september. the standard deviation of any team's performance relative to its abilities is about 6-7 games over the last 159 games of a season. over the last 20 games in a season, the standard deviation is a couple of games. there's a gigantic difference between a two-game swing when the vast majority of teams will be within 3 games of each over the last 20 games and when only a couple of good teams will be within 3 games of each other. thinking through his articles, i'm not really sure he's ever shown any ability to do performance analysis from a statistical perspective at all. he's just the figurehead who writes about the stuff davenport and silver did years ago.

now that BP has comments, I wish you'd post there in the comments and point out the logical issues with his stuff. He seems to have developed a cult following, and when anyone calls him on the carpet, his groupies hop to attention.

i posted the part that wasn't ad hominem. probably more effective if i don't ramble about him not being to do long division.

FTN wrote:Oh. I just saw this at BP, was posted before today's game. By our fav writer

by Joe Sheehan

Think about how differently the last weeks of the season play out if the Mets have an extra two-game cushion in the standings.

If we don't beat them that day, we would have....only won the division by 1 game, and the Mets would have come in 2nd place in the division on the last day of the season instead of the 2nd-to-last.

I like that he just assumes the Braves will be good, too. If the Nationals swept us last year instead of losing the last game, they would have only lost 101 games instead of 102.

Also, sorry if someone already mentioned it because I haven't read through the thread, but this game really reminded me of that Braves-Phillies game last year right before the big rally started. I think it was a Saturday game, and Hamels had pitched his worst game ever, and we were down maybe 9 or 10-1 and came back. I'm so glad this game turned out that way, too.

edit: this one

I forgot how crazy that one was. The Braves scored all 9 of their runs in one inning. Weirdly, Boyer also got the loss in that one and haha Eaton got the win in one of his only relief appearances. Appropriate that he was here today.

The day of the dueling game threads.

FTN wrote:Shore has to be firm in the pantz right now

Still.

Helluva game. I love this team.

Ace Rothstein wrote:oh yeah , just remembered i saw t mac outside the WIP tent walking into the stadium and yelled at him that he sucks

nice

jerseyhoya wrote:The day of the dueling game threads.

I forgot about how up and down entertaining that day was.

lowcountry wrote:Holy balls that was awesome. My afternoon ...

-- Come out of meeting at work. Braves fans give me $#@! because it's 9-3. My response: "Got 'em right where we want 'em."

-- Continue walking to car. Get game on radio. Now it's 10-3. I'm beginning to think we do not, in fact, "Got 'em right where we want 'em."

-- By the time I pull into the driveway, it's 11-10. Perhaps the greatest drive home ... EVAR.

from the looks, your day at work today ought to provide a warm afterglow

My Mets fan co-worker was doing the tomahawk chop in front of me right before I left work.

Warszawa wrote:My Mets fan co-worker was doing the tomahawk chop in front of me right before I left work.

I'm unspeakably apoplectic on your behalf. I hope he's picking that damn thing out of his ass cheeks this morning.

Just watched that 7th inning on mlb.tv. On the radio, it sounded like a bunch of luck, but the first part of that inning was good hitting by our guys. Utley's hit was a blooper, but howard fouled off some tough pitches with two strikes before getting the hbp. Werth also fouled off two strike pitches before the walk and then Ibanez and feliz hit two tough low sinkers where they were pitched for singles. Then the wheels came off the Braves' bullpen, but our guys were patient.

And I saw Marion and the comeback baby.

Jewelers appraise the value of the Phils rings

Anywhere from $3800 to $15000 (which makes me question how legit these guys are).

FWIW, the Wing Bowl winner's ring is worth $7500. hmmm

worst article i've ever seen in my life.

Marion wrote:

td11 wrote:

Marion wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:MARION SIGHTING! can't believe nobody caught that

They wouldn't put us on Phanavision because of the score. So we got on tv instead and even got a comment out of Wheels!

wait was that you with the "phirst game" sign? that baby was adorable.

Yup, that was me with my brother in law and niece. We took her brother to a game a few years ago and brought the same sign. He got on Phanavision. It was just so perfectly timed this time around. Right down to Wheels saying there would have to be a big rally for it to happen. She's the Rally Baby!

I've just been told that Wheels mentions my niece Lucy, the Rally Baby in his book? I don't have a copy of the book. Can anyone confirm? I'm told it's on page 208.

Marion wrote:

Marion wrote:

td11 wrote:

Marion wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:MARION SIGHTING! can't believe nobody caught that

They wouldn't put us on Phanavision because of the score. So we got on tv instead and even got a comment out of Wheels!

wait was that you with the "phirst game" sign? that baby was adorable.

Yup, that was me with my brother in law and niece. We took her brother to a game a few years ago and brought the same sign. He got on Phanavision. It was just so perfectly timed this time around. Right down to Wheels saying there would have to be a big rally for it to happen. She's the Rally Baby!

I've just been told that Wheels mentions my niece Lucy, the Rally Baby in his book? I don't have a copy of the book. Can anyone confirm? I'm told it's on page 208.

ask LA or Franske