4.8.09 GT: Big Joe and the Bravos (Plus rings!)

by **Ace Rothstein** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 21:55:47

BrianOrange wrote:Was Jimy Williams at the ceremony today?

no

by **BrianOrange** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 21:59:37

Ace Rothstein wrote:
BrianOrange wrote:Was Jimy Williams at the ceremony today?

no

Bizarre. Guy must be really pissed at the organization.

by gr » Wed Apr 08, 2009 22:17:32

baseball comebacks and 2009: i found out about the game by way of facebook updates on blackberry. i guess i was traveling home from work for the entire rally.

by **td11** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 22:29:31

Marion wrote:
ReadingPhilly wrote:MARION SIGHTING! can't believe nobody caught that

They wouldn't put us on Phanavision because of the score. So we got on tv instead and even got a comment out of Wheels!

wait was that you with the "phirst game" sign? that baby was adorable.

by **Woody** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 22:37:01

Holy crap I didn't even notice it was you! My wife and I saw that on TV and I said sarcastically, "Sorry kid, not today..."

*cue Phillies comeback*

by **td11** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 22:41:55

is there a screencap?

by **Marion** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 22:42:01

td11 wrote:
Marion wrote:
ReadingPhilly wrote:MARION SIGHTING! can't believe nobody caught that

They wouldn't put us on Phanavision because of the score. So we got on tv instead and even got a comment out of Wheels!

wait was that you with the "phirst game" sign? that baby was adorable.

Yup, that was me with my brother in law and niece. We took her brother to a game a few years ago and brought the same sign. He got on Phanavision. It was just so perfectly timed this time around. Right down to Wheels saying there would have to be a big rally for it to happen. She's the Rally Baby!

by **Marion** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 22:54:05

td11 wrote:is there a screencap?

This is all I've got right now, still working on transfering the game from TiVo...

And Lucy, earlier in the game...

by **Woody** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:00:36

Shortly after that, Wheels wasn't sure whether Lucy was a boy or a girl. More reasons to hate him

by **td11** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:08:49

awesome pics, marion!

i didn't even look at the "parents," i just read the sign and saw the baby. i assume that's why most people missed that it was you.

by **Bakestar** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:10:13

wait is he the guy who bought my tickets?!

by **td11** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:11:17

bake you got served

by **Bakestar** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:12:13

td11 wrote:bake you got served

yah well I don't have crotchfruit to serve as Camera Bait, so I have my pride

by **Woody** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:14:19

Oh c'mon bake, I'm sure if you whipped out your crotchfruit at a Phillies game you'd make it onto plenty of cameras

by **Bakestar** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:15:25

In a holding cell downstairs because THEY WOULD ARREST ME 'CAUSE THAT'S ILLEGAL.

by **Marion** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:20:08

Bakestar wrote:wait is he the guy who bought my tickets?!

No, not the same guy.

by **FTN** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:34:50

Oh. I just saw this at BP, was posted before today's game. By our fav writer

by Joe Sheehan

Is there ever a must-win game in April? One of the standard arguments in the MVP discussion each season is that a particular player's performance was better in September, "when it counts," than it was at other times. The stathead counter to that is fairly simple: all games count exactly the same in the standings. That we know more about the arc of the season in September, or that a team has more time to make up a deficit in April, doesn't weight the games any differently.

The Braves and Phillies began their three-game series tied for first in the NL East. The Braves have taken the first two games, holding the Phillies to just one run total. The Braves exploited a key Phillies weakness in the first game, and have beaten up both Phillies starting pitchers. If they can win today, not only will they complete a sweep, but they'll go three games up on the Phillies. That reads almost like snark, but it's not; today's game will cause a two-game swing in the standings, standings that already favor the Braves. If it were September 8, this afternoon's contest would be the center of the baseball world. Maybe it shouldn't be, and I'm just missing something, but it's a very important game in determining who will eventually win this division. A two-game swing in the standings is massive, and if any team should know that, it's the Phillies, who won the East by a single game two years ago and by three—clinching on the next-to-last day—last season.

We miss the importance of these games early in the season because we're just not trained to look for them. But peek back a year, to April 20, 2008, and consider how important this sweep-avoiding win by the Phillies was. Think about how the Mets' bullpen failing to protect a tie, and the Phillies' bullpen throwing four shutout innings, was something of an introduction to the theme of the race. Think about how differently the last weeks of the season play out if the Mets have an extra two-game cushion in the standings.

Just because we don't know if a two-game swing will be important doesn't mean that we can't behave as if it will. Sure, these teams are going to play another 15 games, and there's plenty of time for story lines to develop. Math is math, though, and two games in the standings are enough to change an awful lot of baseball history. The Mets blew a 6-2 lead to the Brewers last April 13, eventually losing 9-7. The Mets finished one game in back of the Brewers for the NL Wild Card. You could argue that they lost that race on April 13.

The entire season matters. Each game counts exactly the same as every other, and working toward the elimination of the "when it counts" fallacy would be a very good next project for those of us in the advocacy wing of the performance analysis house.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=8721

Today was a must win. 3rd game of the season.

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:38:58

That's absurd.

by **lowcountry** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:45:20

Holy balls that was awesome. My afternoon ...

-- Come out of meeting at work. Braves fans give me shit because it's 9-3. My response: "Got 'em right where we want 'em."

-- Continue walking to car. Get game on radio. Now it's 10-3. I'm beginning to think we do not, in fact, "Got 'em right where we want 'em."

-- By the time I pull into the driveway, it's 11-10. Perhaps the greatest drive home ... EVAR.

by **lowcountry** » Wed Apr 08, 2009 23:48:32

by Joe Sheehan

Is there ever a must-win game in April? One of the standard arguments in the MVP discussion each season is that a particular player's performance was better in September, "when it counts," than it was at other times. The stathead counter to that is fairly simple: all games count exactly the same in the standings. That we know more about the arc of the season in September, or that a team has more time to make up a deficit in April, doesn't weight the games any differently.

The Braves and Phillies began their three-game series tied for first in the NL East. The Braves have taken the first two games, holding the Phillies to just one run total. The Braves exploited a key Phillies weakness in the first game, and have beaten up both Phillies starting pitchers. If they can win today, not only will they complete a sweep, but they'll go three games up on the Phillies. That reads almost like snark, but it's not; today's game will cause a two-game swing in the standings, standings that already favor the Braves. If it were September 8, this afternoon's contest would be the center of the baseball world. Maybe it shouldn't be, and I'm just missing something, but it's a very important game in determining who will eventually win this division. A two-game swing in the standings is massive, and if any team should know that, it's the Phillies, who won the East by a single game two years ago and by three—clinching on the next-to-last day—last season.

We miss the importance of these games early in the season because we're just not trained to look for them. But peek back a year, to April 20, 2008, and consider how important this sweep-avoiding win by the Phillies was. Think about how the Mets' bullpen failing to protect a tie, and the Phillies' bullpen throwing four shutout innings, was something of an introduction to the theme of the race. Think about how differently the last weeks of the season play out if the Mets have an extra two-game cushion in the standings.

Just because we don't know if a two-game swing will be important doesn't mean that we can't behave as if it will. Sure, these teams are going to play another 15 games, and there's plenty of time for story lines to develop. Math is math, though, and two games in the standings are enough to change an awful lot of baseball history. The Mets blew a 6-2 lead to the Brewers last April 13, eventually losing 9-7. The Mets finished one game in back of the Brewers for the NL Wild Card. You could argue that they lost that race on April 13.

The entire season matters. Each game counts exactly the same as every other, and working toward the elimination of the "when it counts" fallacy would be a very good next project for those of us in the advocacy wing of the performance analysis house.

Mr. Sheehan, what you've just written is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Archived

4.8.09 GT: Big Joe and the Bravos (Plus rings!)