Woody wrote:Is it even possible to afford Halladay+Lee+ pay raises next year?

That would be like a billionty dollar payroll, no?

Presuming the economy turns around, and given that the Phils are coming close to selling out every game as it is, I'd be looking for a hefty ticket price increase (though I suppose the Phillies will be careful about this, leaving at least some seats in the $20 range) for next year. Also, they've locked up a bunch of guys on long term deals already, so I don't think the raises are all that big.

They're probably running ahead of revenue projections this year as well.

I don't know if that's enough to add Halladay, and I suppose the priority would be singing Lee to a long term deal.

I think Cliff Lee is pretty determined to go to free agency.

As for the payroll, I think the wise move for the Phillies would be to trade Victorino for a bullpen arm or two. The Yankees come to mind as a possible trade partner. Move Werth to center, put Taylor in the every day lineup, lose the money you are paying out to Eaton, Myers, Jenkins, and Thome, and I think you could afford Halladay and Lee, at least for one year. Then you offer each the same extension, whoever bites first is the winner.

That's assuming the Phillies could get Halladay, which I don't know that now they can. Whatever. I do think, to answer Woody's question, it is economically feasible, provided they trade Victorino for something much less than wha Victorino is likely to cost.

How much is Victorino in line to make next year?

Woody wrote:How much is Victorino in line to make next year?

I would think around $8M. Maybe $10M the way he's been going.

They were prepared to take on Halladay's $15.75MM next year, so you'd have to cover Lee's $9MM. You could almost do that by trading Vic or Werth and letting Taylor take over an OF slot. Trade Blanton, too, and you'd have more than enough money.

Halladay
Lee
Hamels
Happ
Moyer/Drabek

Of course, if they could convince Moyer to retire. . .

Right now, the Phillies have the best rotation they've had in my lifetime and maybe ever. The key pieces are all locked up for next year. I don't see a pressing need for Halladay in 2010. As constructed (and barring injury), the Phillies could be a 95-100 win team next year, with multiple high-caliber prospects ready to step in if needed.

If you want him, just sign him as a FA in 2011.

The Phillies have $108.5M already in payroll obligations for next year (what you see under 2010 + Cliff Lee + $4.5M to pick up Feliz's option). Myers will go, Park, Eyre, Stairs, & Pedro are your significant free agents, and Blanton, Victorino, Ruiz, Chad Durbin, Eric Bruntlett, and Clay Condrey are your significant arbitration-eligible players.

Blanton will probably get a $4-$5M raise, Carlos Ruiz will get a $2-$4M raise, Chad Durbin, if you keep him, will get a much smaller raise ($2M?), Condrey would also be eligible for a much smaller raise ($2M?), and Bruntlett is in line for a raise (ha ha). Your looking at another $14M or so among those players, I think estimating generously.

You'd need to replace or re-sign Eyre, Park, Stairs, & possibly Pedro (if you don't think Moyer can step back into the 5 spot next year, but then I wouldn't worry much about the five spot if you swing a deal in which your top four become Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Blanton), but I think all of that could be done for around $10M without a problem.

So, adding $24M to the $108.5M estimate, you're at $132.5M. Halladay would push it the payroll to $147.25M. That's very high, but you could raise ticket prices, not bring back Pedro or Chan Ho, using cheaper options from within instead, cut Bruntlett and replace him with any rookie fodder, and probably shave about $5M off that total. Once you add in players like Taylor, etc., let's say the payroll is right around $145M.

High? Yes. Best team in baseball and most value per dollar? Also yes.

If you want to see 2010 with arbitration, etc., already factored in look here. Realistically, it's over $133MM already.

mozartpc27 wrote:Yup. For all the (justifiable) $#@! JP has taken, in the end I actually don't think he did that bad of a job from the Blue Jays perspective judging by the results, although this is so only because he got a little lucky: he shed significant payroll by getting rid of Rolen and Rios, but he held on to the face of the franchise and the team's best player, Halladay. I would imagine that Halladay will remain a Blue Jay now until the end of his contract, to avoid fan rage as a long as possible.

Shedding payroll by giving away your best players isn't praiseworthy. If he got rid of Wells, that would be impressive. But Rios is actually worthhis contract. JP is an idiot.

fangraphs wrote:Rios is a +3.5 to +4.5 win player in the prime of his career, and he’s due to make just under $60 million for the next five years. This is a really good contract for the Jays. Rios is an outstanding player being paid less than his market value. He’s as far from being a Wells-like albatross as you could possibly get.

mozartpc27 wrote:The Phillies have $108.5M already in payroll obligations for next year (what you see under 2010 + Cliff Lee + $4.5M to pick up Feliz's option). Myers will go, Park, Eyre, Stairs, & Pedro are your significant free agents, and Blanton, Victorino, Ruiz, Chad Durbin, Eric Bruntlett, and Clay Condrey are your significant arbitration-eligible players.

Blanton will probably get a $4-$5M raise, Carlos Ruiz will get a $2-$4M raise, Chad Durbin, if you keep him, will get a much smaller raise ($2M?), Condrey would also be eligible for a much smaller raise ($2M?), and Bruntlett is in line for a raise (ha ha). Your looking at another $14M or so among those players, I think estimating generously.

You'd need to replace or re-sign Eyre, Park, Stairs, & possibly Pedro (if you don't think Moyer can step back into the 5 spot next year, but then I wouldn't worry much about the five spot if you swing a deal in which your top four become Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Blanton), but I think all of that could be done for around $10M without a problem.

So, adding $24M to the $108.5M estimate, you're at $132.5M. Halladay would push it the payroll to $147.25M. That's very high, but you could raise ticket prices, not bring back Pedro or Chan Ho, using cheaper options from within instead, cut Bruntlett and replace him with any rookie fodder, and probably shave about $5M off that total. Once you add in players like Taylor, etc., let's say the payroll is right around $145M.

High? Yes. Best team in baseball and most value per dollar? Also yes.

There seem to be some interesting unknowns here--for instance, Pedro's free agency. But that also means they have a lot of flexibility considering the fact that they've more or less locked up the core for a couple of years. I think the agenda for this offseason plays into Rube's strengths as a negotiator. One question is whether the Phillies recent willingness to give arb eligible guys long term deals works to their advantage.

They will have a budget. They always do. Will it be 140 million+? That sounds like a lot.

There's a ton of room to raise lower level ticket prices. I dont have the graphic in front of me, but our 100 level prices are nearly the lowest in baseball, only behind teams like TB and WAS. I'll try to find the picture.

Werthless wrote:There's a ton of room to raise lower level ticket prices. I dont have the graphic in front of me, but our 100 level prices are nearly the lowest in baseball, only behind teams like TB and WAS. I'll try to find the picture.

The real question is whether they can raise the prices of the suite level boxes. I don't know that they can in this economy.

It's also worth noting in terms of revenue that if they have a deep run int he playoffs this season, that generates a lot of money -- both in terms of ticket sales, etc. from hosting games but also in the prize money that gets distributed by MLB to the teams in the playoffs.

Obviously, this is a one time thing and you can't expect that revenue to always be there, but if the Phillies have a good run again, they'll have some extra cash

Trent Steele wrote:

Werthless wrote:There's a ton of room to raise lower level ticket prices. I dont have the graphic in front of me, but our 100 level prices are nearly the lowest in baseball, only behind teams like TB and WAS. I'll try to find the picture.

The real question is whether they can raise the prices of the suite level boxes. I don't know that they can in this economy.

Stubhub would indicate there's a lot of room for increases, especially if they embrace differential pricing more than they have.

These however might not sell at quite the asking price.

TenuredVulture wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:The Phillies have $108.5M already in payroll obligations for next year (what you see under 2010 + Cliff Lee + $4.5M to pick up Feliz's option). Myers will go, Park, Eyre, Stairs, & Pedro are your significant free agents, and Blanton, Victorino, Ruiz, Chad Durbin, Eric Bruntlett, and Clay Condrey are your significant arbitration-eligible players.

Blanton will probably get a $4-$5M raise, Carlos Ruiz will get a $2-$4M raise, Chad Durbin, if you keep him, will get a much smaller raise ($2M?), Condrey would also be eligible for a much smaller raise ($2M?), and Bruntlett is in line for a raise (ha ha). Your looking at another $14M or so among those players, I think estimating generously.

You'd need to replace or re-sign Eyre, Park, Stairs, & possibly Pedro (if you don't think Moyer can step back into the 5 spot next year, but then I wouldn't worry much about the five spot if you swing a deal in which your top four become Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Blanton), but I think all of that could be done for around $10M without a problem.

So, adding $24M to the $108.5M estimate, you're at $132.5M. Halladay would push it the payroll to $147.25M. That's very high, but you could raise ticket prices, not bring back Pedro or Chan Ho, using cheaper options from within instead, cut Bruntlett and replace him with any rookie fodder, and probably shave about $5M off that total. Once you add in players like Taylor, etc., let's say the payroll is right around $145M.

High? Yes. Best team in baseball and most value per dollar? Also yes.

There seem to be some interesting unknowns here--for instance, Pedro's free agency. But that also means they have a lot of flexibility considering the fact that they've more or less locked up the core for a couple of years. I think the agenda for this offseason plays into Rube's strengths as a negotiator. One question is whether the Phillies recent willingness to give arb eligible guys long term deals works to their advantage.

They will have a budget. They always do. Will it be 140 million+? That sounds like a lot.

In my estimates, I figured $10M for Pedro, Eyre, Stairs, and Park. In reality, I think you could sign or promote players to fill those positions that would total significantly under that number, perhaps for as little as $4M. That's a savings of $6M. Switch Bruntlett for any minor league back-up SS and you'll probably save another $0.5M. Raise ticket prices by $3 a seat everywhere in the park, assume (conservatively) an attendance of 3M next year, and that's another $9M in revenue. Even counting the percentage you give to the other team, it's $6M. Payroll would be up to about $142M from $130M, but you'd be able to bank an extra $6M in attendance money, probably increase ad revenues by charging more for commercial time since the TV ratings keep going up, you can always introduce another jersey/cap combo if you're really worried, and if it wasn't working out for some reason by June, you could unload Halladay or Blanton or Lee for salary relief.

Not saying they would do it, just saying it is feasible.

Eyre is retiring after this season

philliesphhan wrote:Eyre is retiring after this season

Even after his superb performance this year and the fact that he was so broke at the beginning of the year he needed the Phillies to advance him some of his salary?

Brett Favre, too.

ek wrote:yeah, he already announced it

Is he still poor?

He wasn't poor. He was illiquid. He's not anymore. Big diff.