I fully expect this thread to be at least 15 pages when my train reaches the Ben Franklin Bridge in about 15 minutes.

S2D wrote:Again, because I'm LMFAO...
http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx.tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=61405

I want to have Horatio Sanz come in and say "He speaks for all of us" like he did in the cowbell skit.

Anybody remember how long the Nomar thread went on philliesphans?

Between the four different threads I think we have to be approaching that by now.

I just hope we don't have to trade our entire team for Halladay like the one Jays fan proposed in the Boggi thread.

somebody doesn't know what small sample size means

I actually taught grad level stats, so I know what it means. I used it as a board shorthand for saying that Halladay's playoff winning % is less likely to reach it's expected winning % in a small number of games than if it were a whole season. That's why superior teams are more likely to lose a short series to an inferior team than to lose a division crown to that same team. As N goes up, you approach the predicted/real results. That's why a larger numbers of subjects in a study leads to a lower P value, assuming the same results.

Tonight I'll be at Green Day, can I follow one of you dickheads on Twitter

Oooh look at Stats McGratts

listening to WIP it seems like drabek, taylor and brown are household names while most people before a month ago never even heard of them

How come hot dogs come 10 to a pack when hot dog rolls come 8 to a pack?

Bucky wrote:How come hot dogs come 10 to a pack when hot dog rolls come 8 to a pack?

rolls come 8 to pack?

I like to look at the past to see if it's helpful in current dilemas. Unfortunately, in this case, I'm not sure there's many, if any great comps for the proposed Phils' actions here.

The Phillies are one of the top two teams in the NL right now with a big lead in their division. They are defending WFCs. They have a deep and talented farm system that gets better every year as guys like Brown, Taylor, Drabek and Knapp emerge.

Now they have a chance to make a mid-season deal for an ace pitcher. How many times has this happened in modern times and how often has this worked out and for which side -- the buyers or the sellers? It seems to me it rarely works out all that great for either side. Wasn't it Matt S who pointed out that only two pitchers who were acquired mid season ever won a single World Series game that season (Blanton being one of them)?

I can think of a few mid season Ace for prospect trades. Mark Langston for Randy Johnson, Brian Holman and Gene Harris; Randy Johnson for Freddie Garcia, John Halama, and Carlos Guillen; the notorious Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz deal; Schilling for Vincente Padilla and three bodies; CC Sambathia for a package of prospects that are too soon to tell.

Langston was very good but didn't help the Expos do anything. Johnson was brilliant and the Astros got to the playoffs but then fizzled. Alexander ditto for the Tigers. Schilling wasn;'t all that good and the D' Backs finished third (but won the WFC the next year in large part to Schilling). Sabathia got the Brewers to the playoffs but they were quickly eliminated.

Randy Johnson and Smoltz turned into Hall of Famers, Garcia was very good for a long time, Padilla was good for a while, and most of the rest of the booty acquired didn't help their teams much.

That brings me to what is the big dilema for this Halliday trade possibility. The Phils look like they are a better team than any of the above acquiring clubs. And the prospects they are rumored to be giving up to be get him seem to be better than most of the guys above as well.

I'm not sure looking at the past helps much here. The Phillies are in a great position -- a unique one. Defending WFC; leading their division by a bunch; hot as a cheap pistol right now; a pretty deep and talented farm system; a superb but aging and going to get really expensive core. It will take a smarter man than me to be able to make good historical comparisons here.

I think the Phils should go for Halliday. I'd hate to part with too much of the Taylor/Brown/Drabek/Knapp level talent in the system but this is a rare and wonderful opportunity for the Phils to get very, very good this year and next.

The Phils should go for it. I'm holding my breath hoping Ruben doesn't give up too much of the farm. But getting Halliday (plus two draft picks if you want to say that) makes the team pretty stinkin' awesome looking.

My final point is this. The Phils have had a handful of really good prospects this decade. And nearly every one has turned into a big star. Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Hamels. They've had a couple of others like Madson and Floyd turn out to be really solid.

It's that record of home grown goodness that makes some folks a little leery of giving up too much of the top four group of prospects. The Phillies were actually a good team in 2003. What if they had given up Utley and Howard and Hamels for some ace like Mark Mulder (a really good pitcher but much younger than Halliday). I think that's is the concern here and it's not without merit in my view.

But the bottom line is the Phils should go for Halliday. The question is how much is enough and how much is too much for him? That's something for Amaro to figure out.

I'm sure most of my points have already been made but I have to give my take anyway=

Trade Drabek now while his value is at it's highest point and hold onto Carrasco who might end up the better pitcher when it's all said and done. Drabek has been great for what? 3 or 4 months? SSS. Also if you trade Drabek you can't trade Knapp.

I really hate to see him go but I'm resigned to the fact that Mike Taylor will be included in this deal because of our existing OF unless they plan on replacing Dingleberry on the active roster. I honestly believe he will be a better all around player than Ryan Howard and the player we would most regret losing. Dude is RH, hits .360 off of RHP, is the much better athlete, and is only 23. If you trade Taylor, you have to hold onto Dom Brown who will hopefully be ready to replace Werth or Rauuuuuul in 2011 (or even sooner if Ibanez breaks down).

You never want to buy high and/or sell low. Trading Carrasco, Marson, or Donald would be selling low. Hold on to them and Marson will almost certainly be the backup C next year and if he lives up to his potential Cholly will have no choice but to send Ruiz to the bench where he belongs (assuming Marson is even 80% as good as Ruiz is defensively). If you trade Donald, who is our 3B next year? Would they pick up Feliz's option?

Monkeyboy wrote:I actually taught grad level stats

yes, please.

once again smitty is the voice of reason

These posts are going so fast it's amazing. Here's some things to remember:

1. There's no such thing as a pitching prospect or TINSTAP.

2. BABIP.

3. FIP.

4. The playoffs are a crap shoot.

5. Voros McCracken (actual first name was Robert).

6. Luck

7. Secret Sauce.

8. Mid-season trades rarely work out for the buyer.

9. Mid-Season trades rarely work out for the seller.

10. Replacing Eric Bruntlett with someone who can hit and Paul Bako with a real catcher and Myers replacing some fungible reliever doesn't = getting Roy Halliday.

I think those are all important things to keep in mind.

Oh, BTW, Mozart. If you make a long post it's a good idea to copy it before you hit the submit button. Also if you submit into a locked theread you can hit the back button and recover your post sometimes.

good call on the fungible.

GrizzledVeteran wrote:I fully expect this thread to be at least 15 pages when my train reaches the Ben Franklin Bridge in about 15 minutes.

Only 3 pages? Slackers.

Woody wrote:Oooh look at Stats McGratts

Should I just pretend not to know anything about it? Seriously, what should I do?

I answered your two posts in a way you didn't like, so you resort to comedy. That's cool, I like the funnies.

And please, tell me more about your MBA. Really, I need to know more. And tell me more about your job and your responsibilities. It's fascinating!! I guess it's ok for you to make 50 posts about what you do, but I can't make one about my background when it's completely relevant.