Thought the speech was good. I am happy he is running. He will have a moment or two in the debates, and maybe catch a bump in New Hampshire, and then who knows. Probably not happening, but he's very good at this and with the field as in flux as it is, there's always a chance.

pacino wrote:who do you think wins and ima pull this up for LOLZ in 1.5 years when we both are wrong


i say Scott Walker is the nominee

I would've said Walker back in January/February but he's sort of disappeared. I think he's in general knowledge boot camp to try and lessen the chance of a debilitating gaffes. I think Rubio has the best chance, but it's wide open.

End of Q2 2015 odds

Rubio - 28%
Jeb - 24%
Walker - 21%
Perry - 5%
Christie - 5%
Romney - 4%
Paul - 4%
Kasich - 3%
Huckabee - 3%
Cruz - 2%
Jindal - 1%

really glad Kasich is down there. He's the only one I would think could actually win the general.

I think the difference in general election performance between most of those people would be pretty small (non Ted Cruz division), and it is really difficult to predict at this point. Could make a case for Rubio, Jeb, Kasich, Christie, and Rand being the most electable. Kasich has a lot of Christie's abrasiveness, and I'm not sure he has the connecting on a personal level to make up for it.

One interesting fact about much of the rural south--our public schools tend to be far more integrated than what you'll find in the Northeast. (To be sure, there are some really rural places with tiny school districts where this doesn't always apply.) Of course, in the metropolitan areas of the South, the same or worse pattern of residential segregation results in school segregation. But these days, segregation in schools requires a degree of population density that simply doesn't obtain in much of the rural South.

Our school district has over the last decade or so absorbed three small predominantly African American school districts, and now our school district is majority African American (I'd guess around 60%). There's no tipping point here, and while there has been some white flight, some of that reversed in the last couple of years. We also have school choice, so parents could find a more segregated public school for their children if they so desired. That's not to say there isn't racism and prejudice around here--there is. But for most people, the desire to send their children to the best school in the area trumps their prejudice.

Also, there is certainly a degree of "internal" segregation in the school. That is a real problem with no easy solution.

the most segregated area of the country for Latinos is somewhere in Massachusetts, 2nd is Reading, PA. Yeah, it's pretty segregated up here (by design). Also, the Reading School District is one of the most underfunded school systems in teh United States in comparison to it suburban schools; Allentown is right behind it.

interesting maps

segregated, PA is up there

finally, this great study

I've heard lots of horror stories of William Allen High and Dieruff High. Pretty glad I only went to the 4th or 5th worst high school in the Allentown area.

now THIS is a map. Blue is white people, Green is black people, Red is asian people:

Rubio gets the nomination IMO.

can we all agree not to make fat jokes

It'll be whichever one of the front runners that says the least amount of dumb stuff. Think Walker gets it. He's a great speaker and really doesn't make too many gaffs. I think too many people are anti-Bush to vote for Jeb.

there is not a better example of the last 25 years of a guy who missed his best chance/window to run for president.

I

Soren wrote:can we all agree not to make fat jokes

But they're so fresh!

about as fresh as supply side economics

jerseyhoya wrote:End of Q2 2015 odds

Rubio - 28%
Jeb - 24%
Walker - 21%
Perry - 5%
Christie - 5%
Romney - 4%
Paul - 4%
Kasich - 3%
Huckabee - 3%
Cruz - 2%
Jindal - 1%

Two more things - I had this back in January -

Walker 20%
Jeb 18%
Romney 13%
Christie 11%
Rand 8%
Perry 8%
Pence 5%
Rubio 5%
Jindal 3%
Huck 3%
Cruz 2%
Field 4%

Changes - I didn't think Rubio would run with Jeb in. Romney has since said no. Christie has failed to reverse his fall. Pence had that RFRA thing then didn't run. Walker hasn't really taken advantage of some of the others backsliding/declining in the way Rubio and Jeb have. Kasich looks like he's running.

And for shits and giggles, I'll say this for the Dems

Hillary - 93%
Biden - 3%
O'Malley - 2%
Sanders - 1%
Warren - 1%

I won't make fat jokes but he grosses me out every time I see him.

SK790 wrote:Think Walker gets it.

If he isn't exposed by Bush, Kasich (assuming he even gets on the stage), Christie, even Rubio in debates, something is very very wrong with whomever preps those guys, and they all deserve to lose by embarrassing margins.

dx