TenuredVulture wrote:

dajafi wrote:Sure. DeLay guessed that the partisan ID trend was with him to a point where he could take districts that were, say, +15 and +5, and make them both +10. My sense is that CA is much more inclined toward really, really safe seats. They've had a few change hands--Richard Pombo's is the one I remember--but not many.

I think Delay's plan would take a +10 district and a -5 district to create two +7.5 districts. My understanding is the defense of the plan was to create a delegation that had a partisan alignment that more close matched that of the state. The Texas Republican party, thanks to Rove and Bush, hasn't alienated Hispanic voters to the extent it has elsewhere, so the swing at the Congressional level isn't as substantial as it might otherwise be.


However, incumbency is still a huge advantage.

dajafi wrote:Stormy Daniels forms exploratory committee to run for Senate vs. Vitter.

This is great, except that for some reason, they didn't grab the URL explorestormy.com. Maybe it's taken? You have to figure that would quickly set a record for (sort of) political web traffic.

drsmooth wrote:

dajafi wrote:Stormy Daniels forms exploratory committee to run for Senate vs. Vitter.

This is great, except that for some reason, they didn't grab the URL explorestormy.com. Maybe it's taken? You have to figure that would quickly set a record for (sort of) political web traffic.

probestormy.com ?

Israel was given an ultimatum: if he proceeded with the Senate race, the White House would go to great pains to shut off every dollar in the state. With Schumer’s help, the administration would make sure all the big Democratic donors and institutional players kept their distance. They would show no restraint, even campaigning against him and raising money in Israel’s own home turf. Obama himself would come out to campaign in New York City, cutting off at the knees the downstate, Manhattan-focused appeal Israel would have needed to run to Gillibrand’s left. And perhaps most damning of all, given whom the math dictated Israel would have needed in his column, Emanuel indicated that the nation’s first black president was prepared to barnstorm through New York’s black neighborhoods hand-in-hand with the junior senator, employing his appeal to African-Americans to a political degree he usually avoids. Oh, and as for Israel having any role shaping policy in the House while all this was going on? Forget it.

Those were the sticks.

Or, Emanuel told Israel, there was another option. Step aside and earn the gratitude of the White House. Israel wants to be a prime player on green energy, one of Obama’s legislative priorities. Common ground could be found. Emanuel knew how to rise through the ranks of the House leadership—he was third in command, not all that far from being speaker before accepting his job from Obama. Perhaps something along those lines was of interest? And hey, these days, you never know what could happen in politics anywhere in the country, but especially in New York. Another opportunity could arise sooner than he might think. Counting the president and White House chief-of-staff as friends might be of some use.

jerseyhoya wrote:A Jon Corzine commercial.

$#@! you Corzine. $#@! you.

jerseyhoya wrote:A Jon Corzine commercial.

$#@! you Corzine. $#@! you.

jerseyhoya wrote:Probably no one because one vote never matters.

CrashburnAlley wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Probably no one because one vote never matters.

Fixed your post.

jerseyhoya wrote:Once upon a time it was a competitive district for us. Zimmer and Pappas had it for most of the 1990s. The 2000 redistricting made it a bit safer for Holt, and made NJ-07 better for us. Unless Holt gets caught touching little boys or something he's safe as long as he wants that seat. Those are the sort of higher education voters who have trended Dem over the course of the decade, and it was marginally Dem even before that shift.

jerseyhoya wrote:No, it's north of the third. The third is my home district. Cherry Hill+east Burlco+central Ocean. The fourth, Chris Smith, is north of the third. Then you get to the 12th. I think what the incumbent protection redistricting did was give the 7th a few GOP towns and the 12th got some Dem towns plus more of Trenton.

From a Obama-Biden campaign position paper:

Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s cap-and-trade system will require all pollution credits to be auctioned. A 100 percent auction ensures that all large corporate polluters pay for every ton of emissions they release, rather than giving these emission rights away for free to coal and oil companies.

From today's newspaper:

Under the House bill, only 15% of the emission permits will be auctioned initially. The rest of the permits will be given away -- 2% to oil refiners, 5% to free-standing "merchant" coal plants, 9% to regulated natural-gas distributors, and so on.

So, Mr President, the bill now being considered in Congress is in direct contradiction to your campaign pledge. Will you now please stand up for principle and issue a veto threat?