dajafi wrote:VoxOrion wrote:FTN wrote:So the people who initially thought the Palin choice was "great", "fresh", and "smart" still agree? I mean, I know its an intricate point, but you'd think the potential VP would know the actual role of the VP.
I'm not sure how she hurt his ticket, it's kind of like trying to prove a negative. We'd have to be able to somehow determine where he'd be in the polls if he had selected Romney or whomever. I don't think anyone here expected him to win, so it's hard to argue that he'd be winning now if he selected someone else anyway. His only real jumps in the polls surrounded his slection of her as VP, and the convention where she played a big roll in the end. If the best he can claim occurred in the 2008 election are his two jumps in the polls, it's tough to argue that she didn't play a role in both.
I don't know how exactly one would quantify it, but I do think she hurt, in at least two and maybe three ways.
One, the sense among independents that she isn't qualified is really damaging--both because McCain's no spring chicken and has some health concerns, so the prospect of her taking office isn't at all beyond the realm of the plausible, and because it says something about his judgment.
Two, while she fired up the Republican base, she also fired up the Dem base--and this isn't a good year for the Rs to run a base polarization strategy. The Dem base is bigger, evidently deeper-pocketed (if for no other reason than because Obama opted out of public financing), and more highly motivated. And if you believe that antipathy is a more powerful motivator, Palin provided that--which wasn't really there with McCain.
The possible third way is opportunity cost. If he'd picked Romney, he would have had a more compelling surrogate on economic issues. If he'd picked Ridge (almost wrote "Lidge"...) or Lieberman, he would have reinforced the bipartisan/post-partisan messaging--which would have helped him make the closing argument that voters shouldn't give the Democrats unified control of the federal government, and probably would have preserved his amen corner in the media, which I think deserted him over Palin more than any other one thing.
(Admittedly, Lieberman might have ginned up as much agita on the left as Palin has. But I don't think Romney or Ridge or Pawlenty, all former/current blue-state governors, would have done so.)
This all seems like a lot to give up to make James Dobson happy.
Excellent commentary!