Palin Power! Politics Thread

Sarah Palin: Great VP pick, or the greatest VP Pick?

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Postby cshort » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:45:36

While it's true that the drilling itself it won't have a direct impact on prices, I'm willing to bet that they will drop, at least in the short term. If that bill passes, the price of oil futures will drop, and that will have a ripple effect in the marketplace. No one ever said the market was rational.
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Postby VoxOrion » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:46:35

Philly the Kid wrote:Washington, D.C. -- The media has played a significant role in convincing Americans that offshore drilling for oil in the United States could significantly lower the price of gasoline, according to an analysis released today by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Even though the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency has stated that the benefits from such drilling would be too small to have any significant effect on oil prices, the media has overwhelmingly conveyed the impression that it could. Media coverage of the issue may have influenced public opinion, with a majority now favoring expanded drilling, as proposed by presidential candidate John McCain.



drill baby drill


If domestic drilling is worthless, why did oil futures drop substantially the moment Bush announced he was going to undo the executive order?

Nevermind the fact that you're positioning domestic drilling as an economic only desire - foreign independence is also a driver.
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Postby Barry Jive » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:47:40

press/news releases are a form of media

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Postby The Dude » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:47:42

Well, the speculators haven't been in line with the amount of oil in regards to price, so it's probably another overreaction to some news
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Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:49:34

VoxOrion wrote:
Philly the Kid wrote:Washington, D.C. -- The media has played a significant role in convincing Americans that offshore drilling for oil in the United States could significantly lower the price of gasoline, according to an analysis released today by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Even though the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency has stated that the benefits from such drilling would be too small to have any significant effect on oil prices, the media has overwhelmingly conveyed the impression that it could. Media coverage of the issue may have influenced public opinion, with a majority now favoring expanded drilling, as proposed by presidential candidate John McCain.



drill baby drill


If domestic drilling is worthless, why did oil futures drop substantially the moment Bush announced he was going to undo the executive order?

Nevermind the fact that you're positioning domestic drilling as an economic only desire - foreign independence is also a driver.



For the same reason tech stocks collapsed in the early part of this century, or housing prices recently collapsed--there was an asset bubble.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:50:21

North Korea's Leader May Be Seriously Ill

No word on how Alec Baldwin feels on the matter, or any of the other members of F.A.G.
Last edited by jerseyhoya on Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:53:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Mountainphan » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:52:28

dajafi wrote:Hey, can we keep having the teacher performance debate from the last thread?

For those of you who missed it, the mods (not me) kept going there for a bit.


How about a system of peer and parental review for teachers? Combine this with a voucher system that allows parents to use a limited portion of their tax dollars for private education. In other words, a "voucher" that doesn't pay for a kid's entire private tuition, maybe only 25-40% with the rest being covered by the parents. This along with a reasonable open enrollment program so parents can opt to send their kids to other public schools outside of their neighborhood school...
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Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Sep 09, 2008 13:00:08

Mountainphan wrote:
dajafi wrote:Hey, can we keep having the teacher performance debate from the last thread?

For those of you who missed it, the mods (not me) kept going there for a bit.


How about a system of peer and parental review for teachers? Combine this with a voucher system that allows parents to use a limited portion of their tax dollars for private education. In other words, a "voucher" that doesn't pay for a kid's entire private tuition, maybe only 25-40% with the rest being covered by the parents. This along with a reasonable open enrollment program so parents can opt to send their kids to other public schools outside of their neighborhood school...


That sounds a lot like our current system of higher education.
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Postby VoxOrion » Tue Sep 09, 2008 13:01:10

TenuredVulture wrote:
VoxOrion wrote:
Philly the Kid wrote:Washington, D.C. -- The media has played a significant role in convincing Americans that offshore drilling for oil in the United States could significantly lower the price of gasoline, according to an analysis released today by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Even though the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency has stated that the benefits from such drilling would be too small to have any significant effect on oil prices, the media has overwhelmingly conveyed the impression that it could. Media coverage of the issue may have influenced public opinion, with a majority now favoring expanded drilling, as proposed by presidential candidate John McCain.



drill baby drill


If domestic drilling is worthless, why did oil futures drop substantially the moment Bush announced he was going to undo the executive order?

Nevermind the fact that you're positioning domestic drilling as an economic only desire - foreign independence is also a driver.



For the same reason tech stocks collapsed in the early part of this century, or housing prices recently collapsed--there was an asset bubble.


Wait, so it was just a global market coincidence?
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Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Sep 09, 2008 13:02:19

VoxOrion wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
VoxOrion wrote:
Philly the Kid wrote:Washington, D.C. -- The media has played a significant role in convincing Americans that offshore drilling for oil in the United States could significantly lower the price of gasoline, according to an analysis released today by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Even though the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency has stated that the benefits from such drilling would be too small to have any significant effect on oil prices, the media has overwhelmingly conveyed the impression that it could. Media coverage of the issue may have influenced public opinion, with a majority now favoring expanded drilling, as proposed by presidential candidate John McCain.



drill baby drill


If domestic drilling is worthless, why did oil futures drop substantially the moment Bush announced he was going to undo the executive order?

Nevermind the fact that you're positioning domestic drilling as an economic only desire - foreign independence is also a driver.



For the same reason tech stocks collapsed in the early part of this century, or housing prices recently collapsed--there was an asset bubble.


Wait, so it was just a global market coincidence?


Yes.
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Postby cshort » Tue Sep 09, 2008 13:02:42

TenuredVulture wrote:
VoxOrion wrote:
Philly the Kid wrote:Washington, D.C. -- The media has played a significant role in convincing Americans that offshore drilling for oil in the United States could significantly lower the price of gasoline, according to an analysis released today by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Even though the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency has stated that the benefits from such drilling would be too small to have any significant effect on oil prices, the media has overwhelmingly conveyed the impression that it could. Media coverage of the issue may have influenced public opinion, with a majority now favoring expanded drilling, as proposed by presidential candidate John McCain.



drill baby drill


If domestic drilling is worthless, why did oil futures drop substantially the moment Bush announced he was going to undo the executive order?

Nevermind the fact that you're positioning domestic drilling as an economic only desire - foreign independence is also a driver.



For the same reason tech stocks collapsed in the early part of this century, or housing prices recently collapsed--there was an asset bubble.


?? The reason they fell has nothing to do with the reason the price of oil fell. Oil went up due to increased demand in foreign markets. The marketplace saw this increase, and expected it to continue, with the US consumer chugging right along, with continued unrest in the Middle East, and Hugo Chavez raising hell.

Then a funny thing happened. The prices got to a point where the US consumer got fed up and decided to cut back on oil consumption to a point not seen in decades, and evidently this time they may really mean it. In addition, things are looking up in the Middle East, with Iraq looking like it may be able to actually supply oil to the marketplace. The traders realized that because of this, there would be enough supply, and even with disruptions (Russia, Iran, hurricanes), there would still be enough oil to go around. Additional drilling will mean that an additional safety net will be in place if there are disruptions, which will have a downward effect on prices and especially volatility.

Simplistically, the tech bubble was related to people betting on ridiculous returns from companies that had no chance of achieving those returns. The credit problem was due to companies loaning money to people/institutions that had no hope of paying the money back.
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Postby cshort » Tue Sep 09, 2008 13:15:43

The other upside to the drilling is jobs creation. The US is the world leader in drilling technology. Long term this could create a number of highly skilled/highly paid jobs. Not a bad thing for the economy. Let's just hope that if Congress does come around, they put some real incentives in there for alternative energy. That will have an impact on prices as well.
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Postby dajafi » Tue Sep 09, 2008 15:13:12

Charlie Cook on the state of the race:

Basically, the fundamentals argue for one outcome, but there is something else pulling in the opposite direction.

History argues that parties rarely win three times in a row; just once in five chances since the end of World War II. Presidential elections are usually a referendum on the party holding the White House.

With an incumbent president holding a job approval rating of about 30 percent, a war that a majority of the public believes was a mistake, an economy teetering on the brink of a recession, unemployment at a five-year high and mortgage foreclosures and delinquencies increasing at an alarming rate, this is certainly an inauspicious time for a party to be seeking a third term in the White House.

Exacerbating things for the GOP, Obama will have a significant advantage in terms of money and organization, and McCain's campaign field operation is significantly less formidable than both President Bush's four years ago and Obama's today, in every single state.

Finally, recent polls show voters preferring a Democrat winning the White House over a Republican by anywhere between 7 and 10 percentage points.

All of this suggests a high probability of Democrats winning the White House, but there is something else. Obama seems to hit a resistance point, a ceiling, around 48 or 49 percent, only once grazing 50 percent in the Gallup tracking, performing well with enough groups to get up to the verge of a majority but not yet able to go beyond.

Whether one focuses on white voters over 50 or over 65 years of age, or white working class or non-college-educated whites over 50, Obama is underperforming pretty consistently, though his strength among black and younger college-educated white voters partially offsets the problem.

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Postby TheDude24 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 15:21:27

It's kind of interesting what's going on with Canada's elections. The Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, dissolved parliament early so that they can have election day before the US. He thinks his conservative party has a better chance of gaining more seats then. They don't allow campaigning while parliamant is in session there.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Sep 09, 2008 15:29:09

The CBC has the coolest election night website. I'd kill for CNN to develop something as cool for us.

Also, if the Conservatives gain a majority in parliament, will Buddy shift his plans and head to England or some other place governed by a left leaning party?

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Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Sep 09, 2008 15:32:21

jerseyhoya wrote:The CBC has the coolest election night website. I'd kill for CNN to develop something as cool for us.



Socialist.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Sep 09, 2008 15:37:25

TenuredVulture wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:The CBC has the coolest election night website. I'd kill for CNN to develop something as cool for us.


Socialist.


CNN, in the hopes of improving their market share, should invest private resources in the hopes of emulating the incredibly informative and flashy product that the CBC had on Election Night in 2006.

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Postby BuddyGroom » Tue Sep 09, 2008 15:47:21

jerseyhoya wrote:The CBC has the coolest election night website. I'd kill for CNN to develop something as cool for us.

Also, if the Conservatives gain a majority in parliament, will Buddy shift his plans and head to England or some other place governed by a left leaning party?


Well, the Tories seem ascendant in England too.

Believe me, I'm well aware there's a conservative government currently in power in Canada. It's just that I think most Canadian conservatives, like European conservatives, tend to be pretty moderate, at least by U.S. standards.

So far as I know, they still have national healthcare in Canada.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Sep 09, 2008 16:21:50

Sen. Joe Biden offered a good example today of the difficulty of a national presidential campaign. Candidates are rushed from site to site (Biden left Columbia for St. Louis), often hitting more than one state per day. And while mostly sticking to their stump speeches, they try to recognize local politicians and sprinkle their speeches with local references.

Biden slipped a bit during the introductions, through no fault of his own. In introducing local elected officials, from Ninth District Congressional candidate Judy Baker to former Gov. Roger Wilson, Biden tried to give a special recognition to Sen. Chuck Graham of Columbia.

“Chuck, stand up, let the people see you,” Biden says. He was a bit chagrined when he realized that Graham uses a wheelchair. He recovered quickly and told the crowd to “stand up for Chuck.” The crowd responded with a standing cheer for Graham.


Nice recovery, but baha.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Sep 09, 2008 17:38:51

Was Obama right to opt out of public financing?

Interesting take. I, for one, am pleasantly surprised at how financially competitive McCain has been able to remain with Obama. Combined with the relatively unchanged nature of the map, this is one big reason why I'm more optimistic about McCain's chances than I was a couple of months ago.

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