The more I think about it, the more I agree with jerseyhoya on Goodbye Scottie, as I suggest we now refer to him.

Doesn't mean he isn't right--or that Bush isn't a national embarrassment and disgrace who did everything Goodbye Scottie says and oh so much more. But at best, he's the political equivalent of a mafia hit man who turns rat.

Looks like Fox News will be switching over to the Democrats.

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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ82U2tZoUE[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpxJQABkSsQ[/youtube]

Hillary and Obama should settle Puerto Rico in a dance off.

Two notes...1) Hillary sure loves the sauce. 2) Obama should show off his dance moves to white crowds to prove how white he is. Man, he dances like I do.

The Obama dancing is around 1:50 into the youtube.

:roll:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20080 ... re20080530

And this is for a guy who, during the Republican race, said the economy wasn't his strong suit. Wow, Americans are either really stupid (yeah, I'm talking to you West Virginia ) or have really short memories; probably some of both.

something for fans of stats in baseball and politics:
poblano, of DailyKos and fivethirtyeight.com fame, today outs himself as Nate Silver of BaseballProspectus and PECOTA fame.

cool.

Interesting. I really have enjoyed that 538 site since dajafi linked to it.

Coming this weekend: Jerseyhoya's New Jersey primary preview extravaganza. FEEL THE EXCITEMENT!

I think I just got my brother to go vote absentee this afternoon. Now hopefully he votes the county line.

jerseyhoya wrote:Now hopefully he votes the county line.

I really hope that's a euphemism for something gross.

Knew I liked Nate Silver. IIRC he's a big Sleater-Kinney fan too, which I guess goes with the libburl politics.

dajafi wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Now hopefully he votes the county line.

I really hope that's a euphemism for something gross.

Unless voting for everyone on the party endorsed county slate is gross, then no.

http://joshkahn.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/may-memo-to-gb-list.pdf

Interesting leaked memo from a respected GOP pollster. Glen is good friends with my old boss, and is also a huge Giants fan. I had a nice chat with him the week of the Super Bowl, as he came into our office and I was sitting at my desk wearing my Derrick Ward jersey. Anyhow, I thought it was an interesting read about how effed we are, and the internal advice members are getting.

At one point in the memo, Bolger writes "look for issues that are un-Republican."

Maybe after this election, Republicans will reassess enough that they can define issues in terms of what's best for the country, outside of ideological or partisan boundaries.

Republicans used to think foreign policy and military were theirs - not so much anymore. Democrats never agreed to cede those issues.

It's the Republicans' fault that many seem all too willing to concede issues like healthcare affordability and housing affordability as being "Democratic" or "liberal" issues.

jerseyhoya wrote:http://joshkahn.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/may-memo-to-gb-list.pdf

Interesting leaked memo from a respected GOP pollster. Glen is good friends with my old boss, and is also a huge Giants fan. I had a nice chat with him the week of the Super Bowl, as he came into our office and I was sitting at my desk wearing my Derrick Ward jersey. Anyhow, I thought it was an interesting read about how effed we are, and the internal advice members are getting.

That is interesting. Thanks for posting. To me, as a Democrat who hates Bush/Rovism but wants to see a Republican revival (albeit not this year--the Bush/Rove/DeLay model has to be thoroughly discredited first), it's also tremendously encouraging.

Here's another take on Bolger's findings, going into the underlying data, from another Republican strategist.

Let’s take a deeper look into the data and see how our messages play when voters know where they’re from and when they don’t know which party is saying what. If you want the exact wording of both parties’ message and the full data, go back and take a second look at the poll.

Let’s start with the economy. When voters know what party each message comes from, we lose 37% to 58% and trail among independents by 18%. Ouch. However, when you read both messages without telling voters who they come from, the story gets worse.

Republican voters like the Democrat’s message more than their own party’s message by a large 14% margin when they don’t know which party it comes from. Just as disturbing, numbers among independents drop by another 10%... giving the Democrats a massive 28% advantage. Even our horrifically damaged image is better than our message on the economy. Independents and even Republicans simply like the Democrats’ plan more than ours.

Iraq and trade both follow the exact same pattern. We’re getting smashed on both issues on the partisan test, but when you look at the nonpartisan test where our damaged image isn’t a factor, the numbers get even worse among Independents and Republicans. A few Democrats (and in the case of trade a bunch of Democrats) move our way on the nonpartisan ballot, but Independents actually agree with our messages more when they know the messages came from Republicans.

On taxes, the picture gets more complex. On the partisan text, Independents like the Democrats’ message by significant 14% margin, but Republicans still like our message and give us a resounding 39% advantage. That changes drastically on the nonpartisan test.

When the party’s names are removed, Independents are almost evenly split, giving the Democrats’ message a small 5% advantage. However, Republican voters stampede away from the GOP message. Among Republicans, support for the GOP message on taxes drops by a gargantuan 53% when the party’s names are removed, leaving the Democrats with a 14% advantage. You read that right, on the nonpartisan test, Independents like the GOP message on taxes more than Republicans do and even Independents slightly favor the Democrats.

The takeaway? Our message right now is electoral poison and this isn’t all about “brand.”

I know you don't want to hear this as an operative, but there really is a great opportunity here for Republicans to reinvent themselves. It might not fully manifest until the Ds get real power and (as they inevitably will) screw it up. And the Republicans themselves might not fully get it until they get their clocks cleaned this November. (In that sense, it could be argued that a McCain win actually would be counterproductive.) But I think the Jindal/Pawlenty/Douthat/Salam musings are a good start.

If the Democrats let the Republicans get away with making this electiomn about "family values" or some kind of bogus stuff likethat, they can win again. If the Dems can just get their stuff together enough to make the election about the issues and the differences between what the parties stand for they will romp.

Americans right now are far more in line with the Democratic party's messages. The Dems normally do a crappy job making the election about that and they get all "Swift Boated" by draft dodging dope smokers who make the election about "family vaues."

jerseyhoya wrote:http://joshkahn.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/may-memo-to-gb-list.pdf

Interesting leaked memo from a respected GOP pollster. Glen is good friends with my old boss, and is also a huge Giants fan. I had a nice chat with him the week of the Super Bowl, as he came into our office and I was sitting at my desk wearing my Derrick Ward jersey. Anyhow, I thought it was an interesting read about how effed we are, and the internal advice members are getting.

Ugh.

"To get elected, act like a Democrat, say any dopey populist thing that comes into your head. Bash capitalism, extol redistributionism. To hell with principles, let's win some seats."

Meh. So long as they don't mean it.

I mean, the numbers are bleak.

Joe Biden says Obama asked him to play a "prominent" role in his campaign.

Test run for a potential Veep spot on the Obama ticket? Biden could help in PA. Delaware isn't far from Philly as we know and Biden's a native of Northeastern PA (born in Scranton). Biden would be a great "attack dog" VP in the campaign.

I think Obama could do a lot worse than him. Maybe Biden's trying out for a potential Secretary of State cabinet position.

EDIT: And now the Washington Times story is gone. Wonder what happened?

As I'm typing out my election previews, I realize they're long, so I'm going to post them individually. Tonight, I will post NJ-07 GOP and NJ Sen GOP. At some point either tomorrow morning or Sunday I will write up a pair of gems for NJ Sen Dem and NJ-03 GOP (aka the most important race in America).

On Tuesday, New Jersey is holding primaries for the federal and local races that will be on the ballot in November. Of these, four are of varying degrees of interest.

NJ-07 Republican Primary

New Jersey’s seventh congressional district takes in parts of Union, Somerset, Hunterdon and Middlesex Counties. Its current representative, Mike Ferguson (R), is retiring at the end of this term. In 2006, he squeaked by Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D - Union) 49-48. Stender was going to challenge Ferguson in a rematch, and he decided he’d rather “spend more time with his family” than go through another hard fought battle.

The GOP Primary in the seventh has drawn a crowded field and has all of the odd twists and nuances that makes it a uniquely New Jersey race.

The two front runners are State Senator Leonard Lance (R – Hunterdon) and Kate Whitman, the daughter of Fmr. Governor Christie Whitman. Lance has the county lines in Hunterdon and Somerset Counties, the two most Republican counties in the district. He also has a well earned reputation as a deficit hawk, and has great respect from both sides of the aisle as he does not have a partisan bone in his body. This quality made him a terrible Senate Minority Leader, but it may serve him well in a general election campaign. Whitman, meanwhile, has the county line in Middlesex, which will cast only a small portion of the primary vote, but she has had greater fundraising success and has a last name that grants her near universal name ID. That last name, however, does not have a great deal of pull with GOP primary voters. Her message of cutting spending might though.

Two other candidates will play a major role in determining the winner. Kelly Hatfield, former Summit councilwoman, and Martin Marks, mayor of Scotch Plains, are both from the Union County portion of the district, and have important constituencies supporting them. Hatfield has the Union County line, and Marks, as the only pro life candidate, has the endorsement of New Jersey Right to Life.

All of the smart folks expect Lance to carry the day between his greater organizational strength in Hunterdon and Somerset and the expectation that he’ll be the better general election candidate. Whitman probably has the best shot at pulling off the upset, but Marks might have a shot if the moderate vote splits three ways and pro lifers stick together in support of him.

If I lived in the district, I would definitely be supporting Lance on Tuesday. His fiscally conservative and socially moderate views combined with his bipartisan reputation should work well in November. No matter who wins the primary, Stender is waiting with a lot of money, better name ID, and the benefit of the Democratic national edge behind her. However, this is historically GOP territory, and a district Bush won twice. This will be one of the top targets of both parties in the fall.

NJ Senate Republican Primary

New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, and a Republican hasn’t won statewide since Whitman was reelected almost 11 years ago. This year looks like it will pass without either of these streaks being broken.

The GOP Establishment went through three candidates before settling on a fourth. First off was Anne Estabrook, a multimillionaire from Summit. Estabrook, a member of the Whitman wing of the party, brought the allure of at least partially self funding her race and being moderate enough to win over swing voters in the fall. The downside is, she was an extremely inexperienced public figure who managed not to have an opinion on either the second amendment or Iraq in her first public appearance. Unfortunately for Estabrook, she had a minor stroke a few months ago and dropped out of the race for health reasons. It’s not like she was looking like a winner before her withdrawal, however.

Next, the State GOP turned to Andy Unanue, an heir to the Goya Foods money. In short order it became obvious that Unanue was a moron who may or may not live in New Jersey, and may or may not have shown up to work drunk on a regular basis. Nevertheless, Unanue filed to run, and qualified for the ballot.

When all of the Unanue stuff started coming out, the NJ GOP started heavily recruiting John Crowley, a self made millionaire from Mercer County. Crowley, who made his money in biotech after inventing a cure to a genetic disease that afflicted two of his children, would have been THE recruit. However, even after lobbying from McCain, Crowley never quite jumped in. God, I hope he considers taking on Menendez in four years.

Finally, the NJ GOP establishment settled on Fmr. Rep. Dick Zimmer, a moderate GOPer, who lost to Bob Torricelli in 1996 in an ugly race, even by New Jersey standards. Zimmer took Unanue’s place on the ballot due to an odd loophole in New Jersey election law.

Zimmer does not have the race to himself. State Senator Joe Pennacchio (Morris) and Professor/Libertarian/Paultard Murray Sabrin are also vying for the nomination. Pennacchio is a pretty generic GOP member of the state senate. He won’t raise the money to compete with the Dem nominee. He hopefully won’t embarrass the party if he gets the nomination, but he has no shot at winning, where Zimmer has maybe a sliver of a hope. Sabrin is sort of a fluke candidate. And I don’t feel like discussing him. Hopefully he’s kept below 15%. And he goes away.

Zimmer will win the nomination, I think. Hopefully he breaks 50%. And hopefully he can raise some real money for November. He has too much strength organizationally for either of the other two to overcome.

NJ GOP Senate primary is a silly exercise in who gets to lose to the Democrat. I dunno why anyone would even want to try.