Teh new hotness politics thread (good thru Fantastic Friday)

by **Disco Stu** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 18:20:59

Laexile wrote:I disagree that Jon Stewart, Rush Limbaugh, or anyone else are opinion leaders. People listen/watch these shows not because Fox News or Al Franken tell them what to think, but because they reflect what they think. People who are right of center don't go to "The Daily Show" tapings. I'm not saying they don't have any influence, but I don't think it's a lot. If Rush, Sean, and Anne came out tomorrow loving McCain that wouldn't influence a lot of Christian conservatives. If anything they'd feel betrayed. I'm sure that people on the fence might be pushed one way or another but why would someone in the middle listen to Rush?

Their "popularity" is giving people what they want. And I'm not sure how popular they are. About 1% of America watches Fox News every day and about 5% listen to Rush in a week. I'm sure some Rush listeners listen because they hate him. The music stations kill Rush in listeners.

SCHIP is an interesting example. Republicans wanted to kill the bill because they wanted to limit the free health care to families making $63,000. Democrats wanted it extended to $84,000 per year. Poor children aren't covered by SCHIP. They are covered by Medicaid. The Democrats were able to get the message out that Bush wanted to deny health care to poor children. They didn't convince people that not helping poor children was wrong. The people knew that. They just convinced them of something that was misleading that confirmed their beliefs.

Virginia polls

Huckabee was there last night.

by **meatball** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 18:30:51

Disco Stu wrote:
Laexile wrote:I disagree that Jon Stewart, Rush Limbaugh, or anyone else are opinion leaders. People listen/watch these shows not because Fox News or Al Franken tell them what to think, but because they reflect what they think. People who are right of center don't go to "The Daily Show" tapings. I'm not saying they don't have any influence, but I don't think it's a lot. If Rush, Sean, and Anne came out tomorrow loving McCain that wouldn't influence a lot of Christian conservatives. If anything they'd feel betrayed. I'm sure that people on the fence might be pushed one way or another but why would someone in the middle listen to Rush?

Their "popularity" is giving people what they want. And I'm not sure how popular they are. About 1% of America watches Fox News every day and about 5% listen to Rush in a week. I'm sure some Rush listeners listen because they hate him. The music stations kill Rush in listeners.

SCHIP is an interesting example. Republicans wanted to kill the bill because they wanted to limit the free health care to families making $63,000. Democrats wanted it extended to $84,000 per year. Poor children aren't covered by SCHIP. They are covered by Medicaid. The Democrats were able to get the message out that Bush wanted to deny health care to poor children. They didn't convince people that not helping poor children was wrong. The people knew that. They just convinced them of something that was misleading that confirmed their beliefs.

Virginia polls

Huckabee was there last night.

I think he meant audience members.

by **CrashburnAlley** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 18:31:06

Disco Stu wrote:And stop with the everyone but Fox leans left. It is so tired and so wrong, especially now that the big 3 newscasters don't newscast anymore.

The "liberal media" claim is such a talking point. There are no substantive facts out there that point to a media bias.

It just so happens that the most popular among the media are lefties: Olbermann, Maher, Stewart, Colbert (who deadpans as a right-winger but I believe is just left of center if I recall a Rolling Stone article from a while ago), etc.

For every Olbermann, there is an O'Reilly.

by **pacino** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 18:36:02

meatball wrote:
Disco Stu wrote:
Laexile wrote:I disagree that Jon Stewart, Rush Limbaugh, or anyone else are opinion leaders. People listen/watch these shows not because Fox News or Al Franken tell them what to think, but because they reflect what they think. People who are right of center don't go to "The Daily Show" tapings. I'm not saying they don't have any influence, but I don't think it's a lot. If Rush, Sean, and Anne came out tomorrow loving McCain that wouldn't influence a lot of Christian conservatives. If anything they'd feel betrayed. I'm sure that people on the fence might be pushed one way or another but why would someone in the middle listen to Rush?

Their "popularity" is giving people what they want. And I'm not sure how popular they are. About 1% of America watches Fox News every day and about 5% listen to Rush in a week. I'm sure some Rush listeners listen because they hate him. The music stations kill Rush in listeners.

SCHIP is an interesting example. Republicans wanted to kill the bill because they wanted to limit the free health care to families making $63,000. Democrats wanted it extended to $84,000 per year. Poor children aren't covered by SCHIP. They are covered by Medicaid. The Democrats were able to get the message out that Bush wanted to deny health care to poor children. They didn't convince people that not helping poor children was wrong. The people knew that. They just convinced them of something that was misleading that confirmed their beliefs.

Virginia polls

Huckabee was there last night.

I think he meant audience members.

His audience loves Huckabee.

And CHIP is a great program that deserves more funding, as Medicaid income limits stall.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 18:46:45

CrashburnAlley wrote:
Disco Stu wrote:And stop with the everyone but Fox leans left. It is so tired and so wrong, especially now that the big 3 newscasters don't newscast anymore.

The "liberal media" claim is such a talking point. There are no substantive facts out there that point to a media bias.

It just so happens that the most popular among the media are lefties: Olbermann, Maher, Stewart, Colbert (who deadpans as a right-winger but I believe is just left of center if I recall a Rolling Stone article from a while ago), etc.

For every Olbermann, there is an O'Reilly.

Dan Rather. Texas Air National Guard.

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 18:58:29

Laexile wrote:I disagree that Jon Stewart, Rush Limbaugh, or anyone else are opinion leaders. People listen/watch these shows not because Fox News or Al Franken tell them what to think, but because they reflect what they think. People who are right of center don't go to "The Daily Show" tapings. I'm not saying they don't have any influence, but I don't think it's a lot. If Rush, Sean, and Anne came out tomorrow loving McCain that wouldn't influence a lot of Christian conservatives. If anything they'd feel betrayed. I'm sure that people on the fence might be pushed one way or another but why would someone in the middle listen to Rush?

I don't think conservative media creates conservatives. I think it helps conservatives translate their general ideological temperment into specific positions on issues. Otherwise, how does pro-life government shrinking pro-war McCain become less conservative than pro-choice, pro gay marriage, Hillarycare plan signing Romney?

Even if we buy the left wing MSM argument (I don't, I think the MSM is biased towards idiocy) you don't see the same kind of translation of ideology into policy preference.

That's what's missing on the left, I think--A mass appeal (and in today's fragmented media market, 5% is pretty big) media that provides rhetoric in support of specific policy positions for liberals.

Limbaugh tells his listeners why a conservative should support a policy. He also tells his listeners ways they can effect the political process.

by **Laexile** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 19:00:33

meatball wrote:
Disco Stu wrote:
Laexile wrote:People who are right of center don't go to "The Daily Show" tapings.

Huckabee was there last night.

I think he meant audience members.

I did. The audience applauds Dems and authors/pundits who are left of center and regularly boos Bush and the Republicans. John McCain has been on so often that Stewart offered him the host chair last time he was on. When McCain, John Bolton, or Lynne Cheney is on they don't get the same cheers. The audience is mostly respectful and keeps pretty silent. If there are Republicans in the audience they keep quiet.

by **Laexile** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 21:54:44

A Maryland poll is up. Like Virginia McCain and Obama are way ahead. If both states are similar I'd guess DC will also be. DC and Virginia are winner take all for the GOP. By the end of the day Tuesday McCain could have another 200 delegates, putting him about 270 delegates short of what he'd need. Huckabee could try to hold out for Texas on March 4. Even if he does McCain could hit 1,191 on that day or the week after.

I'd expect the Democratic race to continue to be neck and neck long after that. With six weeks between Mississippi and Pennsylvania I'd expect both candidates to be practically living in Pennsylvania in April.

People have speculated that if the Democrats take it all the way to June it will hurt their chances in November. I don't see it. Both of them will be in the news while McCain won't. Both are excellent at raising money. That's a big weakness for McCain. Even if the right wing gets behind him they won't be so quick to open their checkbooks. I doubt McCain will raise more money even with a 3-4 month head start. Five months should be more than enough to mount a Presidential campaign. The primaries have shown that candidates can gain a lot of votes in a month, let alone five.

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 21:57:56

The other big difference is that most rank and file Democrats are pretty happy with either Obama or Hillary, (I've true believing Democrats say things like "I can't decide, I like them both" more times than I can count.) while many Republicans have serious reservations about their candidates.

by **Bucky** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 22:43:26

jerseyhoya wrote:
And I think if I lived in VA, I'd be voting for Hillary on Tuesday instead of McCain.

Interesting. What's the deadline for switching parties prior to a primary? Think we'll see a rush of R's switching to a D just for the primary so they can help nominate the more beatable Hillary?

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 22:50:42

TenuredVulture wrote:The other big difference is that most rank and file Democrats are pretty happy with either Obama or Hillary, (I've true believing Democrats say things like "I can't decide, I like them both" more times than I can count.) while many Republicans have serious reservations about their candidates.

The Democrats in this thread sure seem to hate Clinton.

by **pacino** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 23:14:28

jerseyhoya wrote:
CrashburnAlley wrote:
Disco Stu wrote:And stop with the everyone but Fox leans left. It is so tired and so wrong, especially now that the big 3 newscasters don't newscast anymore.

The "liberal media" claim is such a talking point. There are no substantive facts out there that point to a media bias.

It just so happens that the most popular among the media are lefties: Olbermann, Maher, Stewart, Colbert (who deadpans as a right-winger but I believe is just left of center if I recall a Rolling Stone article from a while ago), etc.

For every Olbermann, there is an O'Reilly.

Dan Rather. Texas Air National Guard.

Read Reality Show by Howard Kurtz. It's quite a book and dispels a lot of the 'lefty' stuff, but also exposes the natural biases of media (sell sell sell ratings ratings ratings).

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 01:52:32

One of my best friends from high school was a reporter for US News and World Report for about a year after college before moving to law school. When I'd rag on him about lefty media bias, his response was typically something to the extent of the major bias is in what topics reporters find interesting and decide to cover. For the most part major publications and TV channels try and play it down the middle, but the natural biases of reporters, who are undeniably more liberal than the country as a whole, tend to lead to story choices that at their very core are biased towards the left.

And then there's Dan Rather, which I think could not have been a more perfect story of media bias if Brent Bozell wrote it in his whiny basement.

by **Monkeyboy** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 03:27:53

jerseyhoya wrote:
And then there's Dan Rather, which I think could not have been a more HAMELS story of media bias if Brent Bozell wrote it in his whiny basement.

I thought you guys didn't comment during ongoing legal proceedings.

Fake documents covering up a real story.

by **Disco Stu** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 09:51:41

jerseyhoya wrote:One of my best friends from high school was a reporter for US News and World Report for about a year after college before moving to law school. When I'd rag on him about lefty media bias, his response was typically something to the extent of the major bias is in what topics reporters find interesting and decide to cover. For the most part major publications and TV channels try and play it down the middle, but the natural biases of reporters, who are undeniably more liberal than the country as a whole, tend to lead to story choices that at their very core are biased towards the left.

And then there's Dan Rather, which I think could not have been a more HAMELS story of media bias if Brent Bozell wrote it in his whiny basement.

I think it is inbred. Seriosuly. All those reporter parents must brainwash their children into being raving leftwing loonies.

What I find funny is the conservative talking point that left of right is considered left. Most of these guys aren't left. Left is socialism. They are pretty much right down the middle.

by **VoxOrion** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 10:07:25

This is kind of funny. It's a joke (that stings both sides pretty well), for those of you in Rio Linda.

by **FlightRisk** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 10:45:51

Nurse, hand me the spectrum...

by **FlightRisk** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 10:52:34

VoxOrion wrote:This is kind of funny. It's a joke (that stings both sides pretty well), for those of you in Rio Linda.

Yes., "kind of funny". It was disqualified for "funny" 25 paragraphs deep.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:48:50

Disco Stu wrote:I think it is inbred. Seriosuly. All those reporter parents must brainwash their children into being raving leftwing loonies.

What I find funny is the conservative talking point that left of right is considered left. Most of these guys aren't left. Left is socialism. They are pretty much right down the middle.

Left of center is and should be considered left. I know it's a tough concept to wrap your head around. It wouldn't count as left in France, but seeing as we don't live in France, I don't care.

And journalism is a self selecting field, and for whatever reason it tends to draw more liberals than conservatives.

by **Disco Stu** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 13:06:33

jerseyhoya wrote:
Disco Stu wrote:I think it is inbred. Seriosuly. All those reporter parents must brainwash their children into being raving leftwing loonies.

What I find funny is the conservative talking point that left of right is considered left. Most of these guys aren't left. Left is socialism. They are pretty much right down the middle.

Left of center is and should be considered left. I know it's a tough concept to wrap your head around. It wouldn't count as left in France, but seeing as we don't live in France, I don't care.

And journalism is a self selecting field, and for whatever reason it tends to draw more liberals than conservatives.

That's like Stalin calling Ralph Nader a right wing conservative. It is't a moving scale based on locality. If you were to map this (even if it were possible) the right wing in this country are about as far right as you can get. The left wing in this country (and I am talking about the majority of the base) are pretty darn close to center. People like me are left of them and can be considered left of center, but the far left is socialism. And despite what the Voxes and O'Reilly's think (ha, lumped them together), stating that the sites that are moveon and mediamatters are far left doesn't make it so. They are left, but they aren't far left and they are closer to right down the middle than the far right groups in this country.

The reason why journalism draws more liberals is because liberals tend to be journalistic while conservatives tend to be editorial.

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