2011 ST Random Phillies Stuff III: The Search for Grit

Postby smitty » Sun Mar 20, 2011 17:52:03

LongDrive wrote:
Eight years ago, Brandon Wood was a first-round pick (23rd overall) by the Angels. Five years ago, Baseball America dubbed him the third-best prospect in the game. He ranked 8th and 16th on that same list the following two seasons. Now, the 26-year-old Wood may be an organizational afterthought. According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, Wood's chances of making the Angels' roster are dim, barring a trade or release of fellow infielder Alberto Callaspo.

Wood hit just .146/.174/.208 last season through 243 plate appearances. He managed just six walks while striking out 71 times -- more than 29% of his plate appearances.

Wood is now out of options, meaning he'd have to pass through waivers unclaimed for the Angels to re-assign him to the minor leagues. Despite his struggles, it's unlikely this would happen, as a rebuilding team (DiGiovanna speculates on Toronto, specifically) would give him a chance based on his track record as an elite prospect.

Despite a strong push over the past week in Spring Training (7-19 with 2 HR, a double, and a triple), Wood remains buried on the team's depth chart. Maicer Izturis and Callaspo are ahead of him at third base, Erick Aybar and Izturis are ahead at short, while the combination Kendrys Morales (who will open the year on the DL), Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick are in front of him on the first base depth chart.

DiGiovanna speculates that a trade of Callaspo to a team in need of infield help,such as the Phillies, would create room for Wood to make the club. We heard last week though that the Phillies payroll is tapped out, and Callaspo is set to earn $2MM this season. A release of Callaspo's non-guaranteed contract would also create room. The Angels, however, would still be responsible for part of his salary and would be risking a somewhat known commodity for Wood's upside, which may never surface.



Bill James doesn't like Brandon Wood:

About Brandon Wood, for those who still have hope, he's been 7-19, with 2 HRS, a double and a triple. He used to know how to hit.
Asked by: mauimike
Answered: March 20, 2011

Well. . .but there is a tremendous gap between the offensive context that Wood has played in in the minor leagues, and the offensive context he plays in in the majors. The Red Sox generally have pitcher's parks or neutral parks for their minor league teams, whereas the major league team plays in a hitter's park, so when the player comes to the majors there are two adjustments--a downward adjustment based on the quality of competition, but an upward adjustment based on the run context. The two tend to be a wash, and Red Sox rookies tend to hit in the majors (for the Sox) the same thing they have hit in the minors. It's been this way for decades.

The Angels are the opposite; all or almost all of their minor league teams play in extremely high-run contexts, whereas the major league team plays in a pitcher's park (2010 park factor .86), so when a hitter comes out of that system to the majors, he has TWO large negative pulls on his batting numbers, one from the park and one from the quality of the competition. Some guys deal with it fairly well, but to some players it's like they are running in knee-high water all of a sudden.

And Wood, frankly, was never that good. He had phony numbers from playing in places when teams scored 5.5 runs a game, and he should never have been expected to come to the majors and hit. He's basically Craig Paquette. He COULD hit .260 with 25 homers, possibly, as Paquette did in 1996 (.259 with 22, actually), but that's a top-end estimate.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Postby smitty » Sun Mar 20, 2011 18:02:30

Wow. I don't have a knee that's about to fall off and I'd have a hard time squatting like that.

I wonder how he can move around laterally and pivot and other stuff a 2nd baseman has to do.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Postby FTN » Sun Mar 20, 2011 18:31:30

that Bill James analysis is really lazy, to be honest.

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Postby phatj » Sun Mar 20, 2011 18:41:09

FTN wrote:that Bill James analysis is really lazy, to be honest.

I kind of like the idea of taking a flyer on Wood. While I have no expectation that he'll blossom into the kind of player his former prospect status would suggest, the fact that he's 26 is, to me, a good thing. He's entering what should be his peak years, and if he's ever going to be a productive major leaguer, it's going to be over the next 3 or 4 years. Between that and the Phillies' instruction I think he could do OK here.
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Postby FTN » Sun Mar 20, 2011 18:45:53

its not just that. "he played in high run scoring environments" is a copout. Of course he did. But he didn't just put up big numbers. He DESTROYED those levels, at a young age. Ill post more on this later.

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Postby phatj » Sun Mar 20, 2011 18:51:57

I'd like to hear your thoughts, particularly as to why he has failed so miserably in the majors. I mean, his performance relative to league in the majors has been even worse than his performance in the minors was good, if that makes sense.
they were a chick hanging out with her friends at a bar, the Phillies would be the 320 lb chick with a nose wart and a dick - Trent Steele

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Postby LongDrive » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:10:19

Earlier this week we heard that the Phillies have some interest in Cardinals' outfielder Jon Jay, though Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears that nothing is going on between the two teams right now (Twitter link). The Cards are looking for a right-handed reliever to replace Kyle McClellan, who will likely take Adam Wainwright's spot in the rotation, but they appear to be looking elsewhere.

The Phillies have eight righty relievers on their 40-man roster, though Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and Jose Contreras probably aren't going anywhere. Since the Cardinals finished with fewer wins than the Padres last year, they had a chance to claim Pat Neshek but apparently decided against it. St. Louis also passed on Kiko Calero earlier this month.


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Postby swishnicholson » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:11:45

smitty wrote:Wow. I don't have a knee that's about to fall off and I'd have a hard time squatting like that.

I wonder how he can move around laterally and pivot and other stuff a 2nd baseman has to do.


He can do all that stuff, but unfortunately he has to remain in that squatting position to do so. It's a little unorthodox and takes some getting used to-watching him scabber around the field like a crab- so he understandably is keeping things under wraps until he himself is a little more comfortable with it.

I believe the knee has actually been fused in place so he can continue to reach ground balls. His power should suffer a little, but I can safely predict that he'll actually set a career high in walks if he can just get the plate appearances.
Last edited by swishnicholson on Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:25:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby mcare89 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:22:50

EDIT: Image fail. Forget it. Halladay's on the cover of a fishing magazine. I made a Major League 2 joke. I assure you, it was mildly funny.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:48:37

Second baseman Luis Castillo is not wasting time finding a new employer.

On the day he officially was eligible to sign, Castillo quickly narrowed his focus and appears poised to join the Philadelphia Phillies, according to a baseball source.


Per Rubin at ESPNNewYork

I guess we can wait till someone else confirms from the beat writers before starting a thread

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Postby mcare89 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:51:21

Hoooo boy.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:51:49

Gelb is probably wearing orange facepaint at a bar somewhere

I'm guessing Murphy breaks it because it's almost Salisbury's bedtime

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Postby joe table » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:52:24

:shock:

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Postby 702 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:52:25

Luis Castillo Close To Joining Phillies
By Mike Axisa [March 20 at 6:46pm CST]

Former Mets second baseman Luis Castillo is close to joining the Phillies, a source told ESPN New York's Adam Rubin. Castillo was scheduled to clear waivers at 1pm ET today, and Philadelphia will only have to pay him the league minimum.

The Phillies have a bit of a question mark at second base right now given Chase Utley's knee injury, and Castillo would give them a veteran stopgap. Although he hit just .235/.337/.267 in 299 plate appearances last season, Castillo is just a year removed from a .387 OBP.


-MLBTR

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Postby joe table » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:54:26

Image

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Postby joe table » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:54:48

^PALS

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Postby jerseyhoya » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:54:59

Murphy is on twitter, posting about 60 minutes and whoring for votes in The Phield contest

Do your job man

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Postby FTN » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:56:57

Image

Okay. I have a 23 inch monitor, so that looks fine to me, if its distorted or something, try opening in a new window/tab?

Now, some key points.

* I omitted his 19 plate appearances at A+ ball in 2005, because you can't get anything from 19 plate appearances.

* Wood's power is immense. The "hitters leagues" he played in, he destroyed them, power wise. In his "worst" power season, 2004, he put up an ISO 21% better than the league average in the MWL, which is a notorious pitcher's league.

* Wood's walk rate has been steady, and he's been above league average in 5 of the 7 stops shown above. The -47.5 came in just an 86 PA sample at age 18.

* He's always had contact issues. In his age 19 and 20 seasons, it was manageable. In 2006, his first taste of AA, his K rate spiked to 28.5%. It subsequently declined the next two seasons. His power declined as well in 2007, but bounced right back up to an insane .299 level in 2008 while he also managed to cut down his Ks.

* The notion that he "played in tons of hitters parks" probably isn't true. The park factors listed above are not applicable to the seasons he was there, because I do not have access to that data. The numbers above are a 3 year weighted average between 2008-2010. I don't have park factors for the Pioneer League or Arizona Rookie League. I know Provo is no longer a pro affiliate.

* Looking at those park factors, the only park that inflates power numbers is Salt Lake. Cedar Rapids plays almost neutral, when you factor doubles and home runs together. Rancho and Arkansas both play below average power wise, Arkansas even more.

* The average age is for all hitters in the league. I tend to focus more on the prospect age at each level. My rule of thumb is RK = 18, A- = 19, A = 20, A+ = 21, 2A = 22, 3A = 23. Give or take a year on either end. So he's been youngish for his level at each stop.

* He got his first taste of the majors in 2007, at age 22. But it wasn't much of a taste. He was up for 2 games in April, 1 in May, 5 games in July, and then 5 games in September.

* In 2008, they called him up at the end of April. From April 28th until his demotion on June 11th, he received a total of 68 PA in 29 games, or less than 3 PA per game. He came back up on August 28th, playing in 26 games for the remainder of the year, but got just 89 PA. He hit .256/.270/.430 with 7 XBH (4 HR) but drew just 2 walks to go with 22 K.

* In 2009 he started the season in the minors. The Angels recalled him in April, he played 2 games, then 1 game in May, and was sent back to the minors until the middle of July. He was recalled on July 11th. He played a total of 8 games, getting 20 PA. He was dispensed to the minors again, and came back in September. He played 7 games in September/October, getting 16 PA.

* In 2010, he started on the big league roster. His PA breakdown in April and May

April: 70
May: 58

He was optioned to the minors at the end of May, logging 51 PA in AAA.

He came back to the majors in the middle of June. PA breakdown by month for the rest of 2010.

June: 35
July: 21
August: 11
September: 48

* He's never played more than 6 full weeks at a time in the majors, playing every day. He started 17 consecutive games in early 2010, and as far as I can tell, that's the longest streak in the majors for him. Actually, I know its the longest streak.

* As we all know, Scioscia loves the small ball philosophy. And he also seems to pick favorites, and then stick with them, no matter how much they suck. See Jeff Mathis. Wood is the complete opposite of the profile Scioscia likes. Hence, he's never gotten an extended run of playing time. Most top prospects are given 2-3 months at least to play and get comfortable. Every time Wood has gone back to the minors, he's raked.

So here are my conclusions.

* Sometimes, the cliche "he needs a change of scenery" might be applicable. Its clear that Wood is not the type of player the Angels coaching staff likes. He doesn't bunt, his game isn't built in slapping the ball the other way.

* Most great hitters go through bad slumps. Sensible teams allow the player to play and work out of it. Wood has never gotten this chance in LA.

* The yarn that he's only played in great hitting parks isn't true.

* Because of his game, power, he's always going to strike out a lot, which will limit his batting average upside, but in large samples, he's shown the ability to draw walks, improving his walk rate as he's climbed the ladder.

* He was a shortstop, he can still play SS in a pinch, but he's a competent 3B, has a strong arm, and is athletic, even though running isn't a big part of his game anymore. We're not talking about a bad bodied slugger who is losing bat speed here.


I think at his peak, if he's given a chance, he's a Mark Reynolds/Dan Uggla type hitter. I think he needs to get 500 PA in the majors. I think he needs a new set of coaches to look at his swing, get him comfortable, and give him some positive reinforcement. He's not getting any of that in LA.

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Postby swishnicholson » Sun Mar 20, 2011 19:59:31

jerseyhoya wrote:
Second baseman Luis Castillo is not wasting time finding a new employer.

On the day he officially was eligible to sign, Castillo quickly narrowed his focus and appears poised to join the Philadelphia Phillies, according to a baseball source.


Per Rubin at ESPNNewYork

I guess we can wait till someone else confirms from the beat writers before starting a thread


Never have I been so hopeful that a new Phillies player was just a whiny little bitch and played so lousy last year because he was sulking.
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Postby FTN » Sun Mar 20, 2011 20:02:49

love love love the castillo signing.

he was flukishly bad in 2010.

and i guess my brandon wood thing should have its own breakout thread!

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