2011 ST Random Phillies Stuff II: Spring Harder

by **smitty** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 18:33:13

Here's the BP gang's info on the Utley knee thing:

Chase Utley, PHI (Right knee tendinitis)

Utley is dealing with patellar tendinitis in his right knee. It has limited him for the last few days, but it is something he's dealt with previously and the Phillies are not considering surgery to treat it. The patellar tendon—tissue that runs from the bottom of your kneecap to the very top of your shin bone—experiences micro-tearing as the result of repetitive activities involving the quadriceps, tendons, and the tissue that are connected to them. Otherwise known as Jumper's knee, this condition most often results from repetitive jumping, as in basketball and volleyball. It can occur in any sport, though, and it is often associated with tight quads and muscular imbalance.

Patellar tendinitis is usually managed with rest, therapy, and bracing in certain situations. If chronic enough it can lead to degeneration of the patellar tendon, called patellar tendinosis: this condition puts the tendon at risk for rupture, and trust us, that's not pretty. A rupture is extremely unlikely; however it is possible, as Kiko Calero (2003) and John Valentin (2000) can attest. Before his patellar tendinitis ever reached that stage, Utley would likely undergo plasma rich protein (PRP) injections into the area of tendinosis. However, Utley's patellar tendinitis should improve without his resorting to that treatment, allowing him to return to full activities within a week, according to the team. That's good news, since the above scenario is a messy one.

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 19:25:10

kruker wrote:
swishnicholson wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Just out of morbid curiosity, how long is a good time to wait before we'll be able to tell which one turned out better? I think people waited about a month last year before saying that Taylor was overrated and Brown was the 2nd coming, and that was with Taylor changing teams and switching his hitting stance.

I'm talking above my pay grade here, but Taylor is two years older than Brown and posted a .740 OPS in AAA last year, while Brown was tearing up the minors. I suppose you can know for sure, for sure three or four years from now, and Taylor certainly has shown enough talent that he could be very, very good and this was just a stumble along the way. But being higher on Brown is certainly understandable and anyone who's changed their mind base on the first weekend of spring training is either amazingly perceptive or rashly stupid. Well, or throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks.

It will be fun to see which way it pans out.

Furthermore, anyone proclaiming to be a Phillies fan who is hoping Dom will fail so that they can relish in the "I told you so moment...." is probably a huge dip $#@!.

well, yeh, that goes without saying. I would rather be wrong a hundred times than have a major prospect fail when the prospect could make a big difference in the club in terms of performance and affordability. I would think most people would see the "I told you so" as a silver lining to a crappy problem.

Personally, I just want to see them both do well.

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 19:49:05

swishnicholson wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Just out of morbid curiosity, how long is a good time to wait before we'll be able to tell which one turned out better? I think people waited about a month last year before saying that Taylor was overrated and Brown was the 2nd coming, and that was with Taylor changing teams and switching his hitting stance.

I'm talking above my pay grade here, but Taylor is two years older than Brown and posted a .740 OPS in AAA last year, while Brown was tearing up the minors. I suppose you can know for sure, for sure three or four years from now, and Taylor certainly has shown enough talent that he could be very, very good and this was just a stumble along the way. But being higher on Brown is certainly understandable and anyone who's changed their mind base on the first weekend of spring training is either amazingly perceptive or rashly stupid. Well, or throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks.

It will be fun to see which way it pans out.

Yeh, I agree with all of that. My reason for wanting to keep Taylor over Brown was mostly due to two things. First, Taylor is righthanded and I thought he was a better match for our needs in that regard, especially with Werth likely leaving. Second, Brown had yet to show hardly any power at all. In his first 1,250 ABs, he only had 28 HRs and 59 doubles. Most power hitters at least show doubles power early in their careers. Meanwhile, Taylor had 1,839 ABs with 66 HRs and 126 doubles. Taylor's HR rate was significantly higher and, more importantly, the doubles are there that can later translate into more HRs. Yes, Taylor was 2 years older, but he basically lost several years of development at Stanford where they have that one-size-fits-all hitting program. For me, I feel a lot better about a prospect once they've shown they can actually do something. Before they show they can do it, it's just potential, right? Brown had potential, but had shown only flashes of power. Given the importance of getting a cheap player to take Werth's spot, I would have gone with someone who had already shown the power skill (and was righthanded). Of course, I'm also talking way above my pay grade.

None of that said anything about Brown being bad or a future flop, but somehow people read it that way. It was a BSG "either you're with us or against us" moment.

by **phatj** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 20:07:41

Monkeyboy wrote:Second, Brown had yet to show hardly any power at all. In his first 1,250 ABs, he only had 28 HRs and 59 doubles. Most power hitters at least show doubles power early in their careers. Meanwhile, Taylor had 1,839 ABs with 66 HRs and 126 doubles. Taylor's HR rate was significantly higher and, more importantly, the doubles are there that can later translate into more HRs. Yes, Taylor was 2 years older, but he basically lost several years of development at Stanford where they have that one-size-fits-all hitting program. For me, I feel a lot better about a prospect once they've shown they can actually do something. Before they show they can do it, it's just potential, right? Brown had potential, but had shown only flashes of power. Given the importance of getting a cheap player to take Werth's spot, I would have gone with someone who had already shown the power skill (and was righthanded). Of course, I'm also talking way above my pay grade.

None of that said anything about Brown being bad or a future flop, but somehow people read it that way. It was a BSG "either you're with us or against us" moment.

I think you're underestimating the importance of their relative ages and experience levels. Taylor faced relatively advanced competition in college, even if his power wasn't there at the time. After he got a partial season of adjustment to wooden bats and so forth (and apparently reworking his hitting mechanics to rid him of the "Stanford Swing") he dominated in the minors.

Brown meanwhile was a raw athlete out of high school, but has improved at every level. Here's his slugging percentage progression:

2006: .265 in 117 AB
2007: .415 in 294 AB
2008: .417 in 444 AB (all in Lakewood, one of the toughest parks for hitters in all the minors)
2009: .504 in 395 AB
2010: .589 in 343 AB

That's a very strong trend, and a hell of a lot better than "hardly any power at all."

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 20:35:12

This was before 2010, so he had shown hardly any power at all at the time we were talking about it. One season over .417 isn't very good for an uber prospect, imo. Now, after improving again last year, I think there was a lot more evidence for a growing power skill set. I said as much at the time.

Maybe I've just seen too many 5 tool guys fail over the years. I really want to see a prospect do something over a period of time before I'll really believe it. And I keep saying this, but I'll say it again. I liked Brown at the time and like him now (though I'm a little concerned with some things he's shown at the ML level). I just though Taylor was a better fit at the time.

by **FTN** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 20:41:37

Monkeyboy wrote:This was before 2010, so he had shown hardly any power at all at the time we were talking about it. One season over .417 isn't very good for an uber prospect, imo. Now, after improving again last year, I think there was a lot more evidence for a growing power skill set. I said as much at the time.

Maybe I've just seen too many 5 tool guys fail over the years. I really want to see a prospect do something over a period of time before I'll really believe it. And I keep saying this, but I'll say it again. I liked Brown at the time and like him now (though I'm a little concerned with some things he's shown at the ML level). I just though Taylor was a better fit at the time.

Brown's ISO improved fairly steadily from rookie ball on up. ISO is a much better indicator of raw power than slugging percentage.

by 1 » Tue Mar 01, 2011 21:01:10

2010 GAMES OF THE YEAR SPECIAL?!??

2010 GAMES OF THE YEAR SPECIAL??????!???

ek PROMISED ME PHILLIES BASEBALL

by **Wheels Tupay** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 21:15:38

Bakestar wrote:
kruker wrote:
swishnicholson wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Just out of morbid curiosity, how long is a good time to wait before we'll be able to tell which one turned out better? I think people waited about a month last year before saying that Taylor was overrated and Brown was the 2nd coming, and that was with Taylor changing teams and switching his hitting stance.

I'm talking above my pay grade here, but Taylor is two years older than Brown and posted a .740 OPS in AAA last year, while Brown was tearing up the minors. I suppose you can know for sure, for sure three or four years from now, and Taylor certainly has shown enough talent that he could be very, very good and this was just a stumble along the way. But being higher on Brown is certainly understandable and anyone who's changed their mind base on the first weekend of spring training is either amazingly perceptive or rashly stupid. Well, or throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks.

It will be fun to see which way it pans out.

Furthermore, anyone proclaiming to be a Phillies fan who is hoping Dom will fail so that they can relish in the "I told you so moment...." is probably a huge dip $#@!.

I read a string of Comments on a Facebook post last night that made me want to suicide bomb someone/something.

Post on here how the visit from the FBI goes.

by 1 » Tue Mar 01, 2011 21:19:14

at least i got to see sweeney and chooch beat broxton

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 22:47:05

FTN wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:This was before 2010, so he had shown hardly any power at all at the time we were talking about it. One season over .417 isn't very good for an uber prospect, imo. Now, after improving again last year, I think there was a lot more evidence for a growing power skill set. I said as much at the time.

Maybe I've just seen too many 5 tool guys fail over the years. I really want to see a prospect do something over a period of time before I'll really believe it. And I keep saying this, but I'll say it again. I liked Brown at the time and like him now (though I'm a little concerned with some things he's shown at the ML level). I just though Taylor was a better fit at the time.

Brown's ISO improved fairly steadily from rookie ball on up. ISO is a much better indicator of raw power than slugging percentage.

I don't disagree with you. He was improving, but there's never any guarantee that a player will continue to advance. If I had a nickel for every player that looked good through AA and then tanked, I would be a wealthy man. He really didn't show legit power until 2010. There were indications that it would come, but I sided with Taylor because it had already arrived.

Keep in mind, it wasn't that I thought that Brown was bad or anything. I thought Taylor was a better fit because he was a year ahead and fit the time schedule better, is righthanded, and had shown some of the skills that Brown hadn't. I'll be interested to see what happens to Brown's power when they try to shorten his swing to catch up to those fastballs he's missing.

by **FTN** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 22:55:13

You know Taylor bombed out in AAA in 2010, and Brown was pretty good in AAA in 2010, at a younger age, right?

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 23:05:49

FTN wrote:You know Taylor bombed out in AAA in 2010, and Brown was pretty good in AAA in 2010, at a younger age, right?

OK, one more time. I was rehashing the argument I made before 2010. What happened in 2010 had no bearing on my decision at the time because 2010 hadn't happened yet.

And please don't use the Taylor bombed argument anyway. He was adjusting to a new team and new stance. He was actually better than Brown in the 2nd half of 2010, not that it matters because they both kinda stunk. Taylor did, however, start to right himself. This is a make or break year for him probably, but Brown has the luxury of more time.

by **FTN** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 23:07:29

Monkeyboy wrote:
FTN wrote:You know Taylor bombed out in AAA in 2010, and Brown was pretty good in AAA in 2010, at a younger age, right?

OK, one more time. I was rehashing the argument I made before 2010. What happened in 2010 had no bearing on my decision at the time because 2010 hadn't happened yet.

And please don't use the Taylor bombed argument anyway. He was adjusting to a new team and new stance. He was actually better than Brown in the 2nd half of 2010, not that it matters because they both kinda stunk. Taylor did, however, start to right himself. This is a make or break year for him probably, but Brown has the luxury of more time.

Isnt Brown adjusting to a new stance now?

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 23:21:21

FTN wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
FTN wrote:You know Taylor bombed out in AAA in 2010, and Brown was pretty good in AAA in 2010, at a younger age, right?

OK, one more time. I was rehashing the argument I made before 2010. What happened in 2010 had no bearing on my decision at the time because 2010 hadn't happened yet.

And please don't use the Taylor bombed argument anyway. He was adjusting to a new team and new stance. He was actually better than Brown in the 2nd half of 2010, not that it matters because they both kinda stunk. Taylor did, however, start to right himself. This is a make or break year for him probably, but Brown has the luxury of more time.

Isnt Brown adjusting to a new stance now?

I think so, but I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. He wasn't adjusting to a new swing last year.

Are we now having a conversation about this year? I was having a conversation about the state of things before last season. I think I've been quite clear about that fact, but people keep taking my comments out of that context.

I am a little concerned about Brown swinging through so many hittable fastballs as I haven't seen many top players do that over the years. Usually the top guys hit the fastballs, but may have trouble with all the speed changes and offspeed stuff. But it's only been 70 PAs, so it's nothing to get too worked up about. For the record, I would have been concerned if Taylor came up and did the same thing.

by **kruker** » Wed Mar 02, 2011 02:11:23

Was this posted?

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/vi ... 8&c_id=phi

It's worth it just to hear the last question..."who among your teammates would you go after first in a snowball fight?"

by **slugsrbad** » Wed Mar 02, 2011 03:03:45

kruker wrote:Was this posted?

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/vi ... 8&c_id=phi

It's worth it just to hear the last question..."who among your teammates would you go after first in a snowball fight?"

I'm not going to spoil the amazing answer, but wow.. amazing answer.

by **WheelsFellOff** » Wed Mar 02, 2011 08:38:52

I liked the part where everything

by **Dick Allen HOF** » Wed Mar 02, 2011 13:42:13

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fYikwg_OiE[/youtube]

by **GrizzledVeteran** » Wed Mar 02, 2011 13:48:15

From Matt Gelb:

Carlos Ruiz was excused from camp yesterday for personal reasons and went home to Panama. He's expected back Friday.

by **PA_Dan** » Wed Mar 02, 2011 13:52:27

Dick Allen HOF wrote:[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fYikwg_OiE[/youtube]

magelb Matt Gelb
MLB Network does segment on Brown's swing. Everyone in clubhouse watching. It ends as Brown walks through room. Awkward.

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2011 ST Random Phillies Stuff II: Spring Harder