Are the Phillies Fatally Flawed?

by **JFLNYC** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:13:05

Warszawa wrote:A slump or just the inability to hit superior pitching?

That's my question, too. Of course, superior pitchers are going to be tougher but, if this team's going to advance in the post-season, they have to figure out a way to do more than they've been doing against good pitching.

by **philliesr98** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:13:23

who said we were going to get swept???

by **JFLNYC** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:15:51

I don't see as much negativity as I see concern. In particular, I see concern for the Phils having missed an opportunity to put some more distance between themselves and the competition and concern for the team's poor showing against better teams.

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:15:57

philliesr98 wrote:who said we were going to get swept???

Warszawa wrote:Interleague play has been a total disaster - why should things change now?

Lose all 3.

by **philliesr98** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:17:17

TenuredVulture wrote:
philliesr98 wrote:who said we were going to get swept???

Warszawa wrote:Interleague play has been a total disaster - why should things change now?

Lose all 3.

still very far from "all you fucks"

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:18:53

philliesr98 wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
philliesr98 wrote:who said we were going to get swept???

Warszawa wrote:Interleague play has been a total disaster - why should things change now?

Lose all 3.

still very far from "all you $#@!"

the fuckers are the negative ones. there seem to be a lot them around here.

by **smitty** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:36:20

JFLNYC wrote:
Warszawa wrote:A slump or just the inability to hit superior pitching?

That's my question, too. Of course, superior pitchers are going to be tougher but, if this team's going to advance in the post-season, they have to figure out a way to do more than they've been doing against good pitching.

Last year's team, led by the same guys on this year's squad, hit the best pitchers in the NL very well for the most part:

Perez: 13 IP/11 RS

Hudson: 35 IP/18 RS

Smoltz: 10 IP/9 RS

Sheets: 7 IP/ 2 RS

Wainwright: 21 IP/3 RS

Oswalt: 12 IP/10 RS

Harang: 6 IP/5 RS

Francis: 8 IP/14 RS

Cain: 3 IP/ 7 RS

Lowe: 7 IP/ 3 RS

Penny: 7 IP/ 1 RS

Peavy: 6 IP/ 4 RS

The Phillies score a lot of runs when they're hitting. It doesn't matter all that much who is pitching most of the time.[/quote]

by **philliesr98** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:36:42

TenuredVulture wrote:
philliesr98 wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
philliesr98 wrote:who said we were going to get swept???

Warszawa wrote:Interleague play has been a total disaster - why should things change now?

Lose all 3.

still very far from "all you $#@!"

the $#@! are the negative ones. there seem to be a lot them around here.

dont stress it, it's a losing battle, most of us know there are better times... negative people aren't gonna suffer you anyway, just let em go and keep on rootin...

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:50:32

philliesr98 wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
philliesr98 wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
philliesr98 wrote:who said we were going to get swept???

Warszawa wrote:Interleague play has been a total disaster - why should things change now?

Lose all 3.

still very far from "all you $#@!"

the $#@! are the negative ones. there seem to be a lot them around here.

dont stress it, it's a losing battle, most of us know there are better times... negative people aren't gonna suffer you anyway, just let em go and keep on rootin...

I just needed a rant. and I didn't want to give vox the satisfaction by starting another thread.

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 13:54:06

At least with their sweet name and classic colors, the Phillies aren't fatally flawed in the manner that the Rockies or Rays are.

by **JFLNYC** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 14:17:09

smitty wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:
Warszawa wrote:A slump or just the inability to hit superior pitching?

That's my question, too. Of course, superior pitchers are going to be tougher but, if this team's going to advance in the post-season, they have to figure out a way to do more than they've been doing against good pitching.

Last year's team, led by the same guys on this year's squad, hit the best pitchers in the NL very well for the most part:

Perez: 13 IP/11 RS

Hudson: 35 IP/18 RS

Smoltz: 10 IP/9 RS

Sheets: 7 IP/ 2 RS

Wainwright: 21 IP/3 RS

Oswalt: 12 IP/10 RS

Harang: 6 IP/5 RS

Francis: 8 IP/14 RS

Cain: 3 IP/ 7 RS

Lowe: 7 IP/ 3 RS

Penny: 7 IP/ 1 RS

Peavy: 6 IP/ 4 RS

The Phillies score a lot of runs when they're hitting. It doesn't matter all that much who is pitching most of the time.

Too bad it's 2008, not 2007, because it's seemed to make a great deal of difference recently who's pitching.

by **phatj** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 14:27:05

JFLNYC wrote:Too bad it's 2008, not 2007, because it's seemed to make a great deal of difference recently who's pitching.

So they're fatally flawed this year, but almost the same group was very good last year?

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 14:33:15

phatj wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Too bad it's 2008, not 2007, because it's seemed to make a great deal of difference recently who's pitching.

So they're fatally flawed this year, but almost the same group was very good last year?

Rowand=GRIT

by **Didn't I?** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 14:35:34

I would just like to commend Warszawa for not going with "Phatally Phlawed."

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 14:37:42

ekravitz wrote:well, he wouldn't have put up those numbers this year, but we do miss his production from last year. I would say that

Me too. No doubt Rowand 2007 version would help this team.

by **Wizlah** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 14:52:47

Warszawa wrote:[
A slump or just the inability to hit superior pitching? If they return to form and hit like crazy against Texas and continue to hit against the lesser more familiar pitching opponents they have coming up then I don't know if you can just say its a slump.

What if their slump combines at the exact SAME TIME as they face good pitching?

And isn't bad hitting against bad pitching a better indicator of overall badness, than bad hitting against good pitching?

by **smitty** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 15:46:17

jerseyhoya wrote:
ekravitz wrote:well, he wouldn't have put up those numbers this year, but we do miss his production from last year. I would say that

Me too. No doubt Rowand 2007 version would help this team.

Rowand hit to the tune of an .819 OPS vs pitchers with an ERA less than 3.50 last season. This year he is at .652 vs. good pitchers. Most of the Phillies are similar. Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino and Burrell did well vs. the better pitchers last year. I think when they start hitting again it won't matter that much who is pitching:

In 2007, the Phils core guys had the following OPS vs. superior pitching (better than 3.51 ERA):

Utley -- .845

Howard -- .833

Rollins -- .865

Burrell -- .713 (1.074 though vs. 3.51-4.25)

Victorino -- .796

Compare that to the big guns on our division rivals:

Chipper -- .854

Frenchy -- .642

McCann -- .639

Wright -- .736

Reyes -- .610 (WOW!)

Alou -- .769

DelGado -- .618

Beltran -- .909 (This guy should be an MVP candidate -- what's wrong with him?).

by **JFLNYC** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 16:18:58

phatj wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Too bad it's 2008, not 2007, because it's seemed to make a great deal of difference recently who's pitching.

So they're fatally flawed this year, but almost the same group was very good last year?

And I said "fatally flawed" exactly where? Please don't put words in my mouth.

Individuals' and teams' performance vary from year to year. The players may have the same names, but their performace is not identical. Who's hitting better this year than last for the Phils? Werth, for sure. Utley and Burrell, but Rollins and particularly Howard are not producing as much. Having your leadoff hitter/league MVP go from a 118 OPS+ to league average (99) and your cleanup hitter go from a 144 OPS+ to below league average at 96 are going to have a significant effect. When you compare the performances of Rollins, Utley, Howard and Burrell from last year to this, the result is a net loss of 34 OPS+ points. And, of course, having Jenkins get most of the AB's against RHP that Rowand got last year is a net loss, too, and Victorino is down slightly.

This year's edition -- even with most of the same players, but performing at different levels -- has had more trouble (esp. recently) against quality pitching. It was better last year, it may be better next year, it may even get better this year. But right now it's concerning, esp. if (and I said "if") it doesn't improve by September and also because the offense had trouble against a hot pitching staff in last year's NLDS.

by **smitty** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 16:50:50

JFLNYC wrote:
phatj wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Too bad it's 2008, not 2007, because it's seemed to make a great deal of difference recently who's pitching.

So they're fatally flawed this year, but almost the same group was very good last year?

And I said "fatally flawed" exactly where? Please don't put words in my mouth.

Individuals' and teams' performance vary from year to year. The players may have the same names, but their performace is not identical. Who's hitting better this year than last for the Phils? Werth, for sure. Utley and Burrell, but Rollins and particularly Howard are not producing as much. Having your leadoff hitter/league MVP go from a 118 OPS+ to league average (99) and your cleanup hitter go from a 144 OPS+ to below league average at 96 are going to have a significant effect. When you compare the performances of Rollins, Utley, Howard and Burrell from last year to this, the result is a net loss of 34 OPS+ points. And, of course, having Jenkins get most of the AB's against RHP that Rowand got last year is a net loss, too, and Victorino is down slightly.

This year's edition -- even with most of the same players, but performing at different levels -- has had more trouble (esp. recently) against quality pitching. It was better last year, it may be better next year, it may even get better this year. But right now it's concerning, esp. if (and I said "if") it doesn't improve by September and also because the offense had trouble against a hot pitching staff in last year's NLDS.

The Phillies have a bunch of second half hitters. Rollins and Howard for sure. Don't forget this time last year Burrell stunk. Even Jenkins is a much better 2nd half hitter.

The Phils have had a bad June tyhis year. It could be that simple. Look:

OPS by month this year:

April -- .780; 112 OPS+

May -- .814; 120

June -- .709; 90

Last season:

April -- .789; 116

May -- .768; 105

June -- .790; 108

July -- .911; 139

August -- .819; 111

September -- .793; 104

Last year in the second half, the Phils hit very good pitchers like Peavy and Hudson and Smoltz and Oswalt and others. When they are hitting, they are hitting. The opposing pitcher often doesn't matter all that much.

by **Stay_Disappointed** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 17:31:15

I would like to thank Smitty for making some excellent points.

Maybe they could win with an overpowering offense as long as it is overpowering enough. Last years stats that Smitty brought up are pretty good. As much as I dont want to admit it the maybe the problem is just this years offense and not any kind of philosophical team building flaw at all. I think they really lucked out last year with Rowand's production. Combined with Howard's atrocious 2008 OBP, a huge chunk of the middle of their lineup is AWOL. On second thought...since Burrell is actually having a fairly consistent year in the 5 hole maybe the problem is just Howard.

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Are the Phillies Fatally Flawed?