maybe for the average internet user, but not for people who have been in office for a decade+

We have Donald Trump as President and we’re suggesting the Democrats have a low bar?

Frank Grimes wrote:Illinois always goes blue so I'm just gonna write in Bernie.

do you have a contested congressional race? any good state legislative races?

CFP wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:I read that Maddow had something on her show ay about the relationship between Harris and Biden. Apparently, they worked well together in 2008 on a relief package. That may have been part of the reason for his choice.

She wasn't in the Senate until 2017? She was a DA in San Francisco in 2008.

Yes, she was the DA when it happened. I don't know much about the story, but she was apparently pretty involved with Biden during the creation of the relief package, as was Beau Biden (he was AG in DE at the time).

CFP wrote:

thephan wrote:Where that is true, she was the CA AG from 2011 - 2017 and a large state like CA probably had some hand in the bill and/or definitely worked with key politicians.

Right, well if it is true, then maybe MB can post a link or something so we can see it.

It was on the Maddow show, so I'm not sure what link to post.

My mistake on the date. She did it in 2011. I was hearing it second-hand and they talked about the mortgage crisis, so I assumed it was 2008-9.

Here is a video of it.

jerseyhoya wrote:Nate's write up seems correct to me, but the numbers seem a bit low. I dunno.

They feel on the money to me, maybe even a little generous, and here is why: Biden's numbers are not reflective of support for Joe Biden. Outside of his immediate family, I am not sure anybody is exactly excited for or clamoring for President Joe Biden.

What they are for is not Donald Trump. Anything that happens that makes Trump look just a little less bad works strongly in Trump's favor, either by flipping weak Biden voters back over to Trump, or convincing weak Biden voters to skip it altogether.

This is to say as stable 8 point national leads go, Biden's feels particularly precarious.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Nate's write up seems correct to me, but the numbers seem a bit low. I dunno.

They feel on the money to me, maybe even a little generous, and here is why: Biden's numbers are not reflective of support for Joe Biden. Outside of his immediate family, I am not sure anybody is exactly excited for or clamoring for President Joe Biden.

What they are for is not Donald Trump. Anything that happens that makes Trump look just a little less bad works strongly in Trump's favor, either by flipping weak Biden voters back over to Trump, or convincing weak Biden voters to skip it altogether.

This is to say as stable 8 point national leads go, Biden's feels particularly precarious.

I don't think Joe Biden puts away the primary as early as he did if this were true. I think you're underestimating the "centrist" and older votes.

I also think we run the risk of discouraging ourselves if we keep the mentality that Joe Biden is unpopular or smoke and mirrors.

:shrug:

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Nate's write up seems correct to me, but the numbers seem a bit low. I dunno.

They feel on the money to me, maybe even a little generous, and here is why: Biden's numbers are not reflective of support for Joe Biden. Outside of his immediate family, I am not sure anybody is exactly excited for or clamoring for President Joe Biden.

What they are for is not Donald Trump. Anything that happens that makes Trump look just a little less bad works strongly in Trump's favor, either by flipping weak Biden voters back over to Trump, or convincing weak Biden voters to skip it altogether.

This is to say as stable 8 point national leads go, Biden's feels particularly precarious.

I don't think Joe Biden puts away the primary as early as he did if this were true. I think you're underestimating the "centrist" and older votes.

I also think we run the risk of discouraging ourselves if we keep the mentality that Joe Biden is unpopular or smoke and mirrors.

:shrug:

I think this is important. I think there's a lot to be said that the collective wisdom of primary voters is greater than that of a handful of middle age cargo short wearing white guys. And I mean that seriously--the diversity of the primary electorate being much greater than that of this board or even guys who listen to political podcasts mean that they really do have a better read on electability than elites do.

Keep in mind, it took me a long time to come around on Biden's electability. But he won the primaries, and won with relative ease.

TenuredVulture wrote:Keep in mind, it took me a long time to come around on Biden's electability. But he won the primaries, and won with relative ease.

the ultimate perception vs reality. progressive/bernie issues poll higher than what biden is/was running on.

But I heard that Biden is the most leftist candidate in history, and Kamala is a nasty shrew

jamiethekiller wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:Keep in mind, it took me a long time to come around on Biden's electability. But he won the primaries, and won with relative ease.

the ultimate perception vs reality. progressive/bernie issues poll higher than what biden is/was running on.

That's the case with a bunch of economically progressive views--they poll higher than pretty much any Democrat who supports those views.

It's probably not big enough to measure, but with so many college age students not on campus, I wonder if they won't be more likely to vote in at least some cases. Students who go to college out of state face a lot of barriers--registering to vote in an unfamiliar place (and lots of cities with large college populations have historically sought to discourage student voting--New Brunswick, NJ most assuredly did) or changing their registration. But now that they're staying home, they can just go vote with their parents. In states with voter ID laws, they won't have any problems there either--the address on their driver's license will match the address on their voter registration card.

TenuredVulture wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Nate's write up seems correct to me, but the numbers seem a bit low. I dunno.

They feel on the money to me, maybe even a little generous, and here is why: Biden's numbers are not reflective of support for Joe Biden. Outside of his immediate family, I am not sure anybody is exactly excited for or clamoring for President Joe Biden.

What they are for is not Donald Trump. Anything that happens that makes Trump look just a little less bad works strongly in Trump's favor, either by flipping weak Biden voters back over to Trump, or convincing weak Biden voters to skip it altogether.

This is to say as stable 8 point national leads go, Biden's feels particularly precarious.

I don't think Joe Biden puts away the primary as early as he did if this were true. I think you're underestimating the "centrist" and older votes.

I also think we run the risk of discouraging ourselves if we keep the mentality that Joe Biden is unpopular or smoke and mirrors.

:shrug:

I think this is important. I think there's a lot to be said that the collective wisdom of primary voters is greater than that of a handful of middle age cargo short wearing white guys. And I mean that seriously--the diversity of the primary electorate being much greater than that of this board or even guys who listen to political podcasts mean that they really do have a better read on electability than elites do.

Keep in mind, it took me a long time to come around on Biden's electability. But he won the primaries, and won with relative ease.

You know how to cut a guy to the quick.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Nate's write up seems correct to me, but the numbers seem a bit low. I dunno.

They feel on the money to me, maybe even a little generous, and here is why: Biden's numbers are not reflective of support for Joe Biden. Outside of his immediate family, I am not sure anybody is exactly excited for or clamoring for President Joe Biden.

What they are for is not Donald Trump. Anything that happens that makes Trump look just a little less bad works strongly in Trump's favor, either by flipping weak Biden voters back over to Trump, or convincing weak Biden voters to skip it altogether.

This is to say as stable 8 point national leads go, Biden's feels particularly precarious.

I don't think Joe Biden puts away the primary as early as he did if this were true. I think you're underestimating the "centrist" and older votes.

I also think we run the risk of discouraging ourselves if we keep the mentality that Joe Biden is unpopular or smoke and mirrors.

:shrug:

I think this is important. I think there's a lot to be said that the collective wisdom of primary voters is greater than that of a handful of middle age cargo short wearing white guys. And I mean that seriously--the diversity of the primary electorate being much greater than that of this board or even guys who listen to political podcasts mean that they really do have a better read on electability than elites do.

Keep in mind, it took me a long time to come around on Biden's electability. But he won the primaries, and won with relative ease.

You know how to cut a guy to the quick.

In a few years, I'll be elderly.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllan ... 0255c23e16

Kanye meets with Jared regularly. Seem just totally normal.

I hope they aren't going to let Trump define Harris. He keeps bashing her and I've heard no response. They should be hitting back hard anshould have had a campaign ready to define/introduce her to the American people.

Maybe I'm just missing it.

Monkeyboy wrote:I hope they aren't going to let Trump define Harris. He keeps bashing her and I've heard no response. They should be hitting back hard anshould have had a campaign ready to define/introduce her to the American people.

Maybe I'm just missing it.

I mean they're defining her as being the anti-cop super cop conservative super liberal who is nasty. There is no fucking label, they're all over the place. She was the leading candidate since the George Floyd murder and they couldn't take a second to stop sniffing their own asses to have a good message.

Yeh, they are looking for what will stick, then they'll hammer it for 3 months. Dems need to respond hard. This is no game.

Even given Biden’s age, I’m not sure bashing his VP candidate is a winning strategy.