GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby slugsrbad » Wed Sep 12, 2018 16:39:42

JUburton wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:538 Senate Model up:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... st/senate/

So it's literally a coin flip that the Senate goes 50-50 or Democratic?

I'll take it, even with Pence as the tiebreaker. That's better than I ever would've imagined 12 months ago.
that subpoena power tho


House has subpoena power too. The biggest thing would be slowing down judicial nominations.
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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby JUburton » Wed Sep 12, 2018 16:43:56

slugsrbad wrote:
JUburton wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:538 Senate Model up:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... st/senate/

So it's literally a coin flip that the Senate goes 50-50 or Democratic?

I'll take it, even with Pence as the tiebreaker. That's better than I ever would've imagined 12 months ago.
that subpoena power tho


House has subpoena power too. The biggest thing would be slowing down judicial nominations.
Oh yeah that's certainly number one. 50/50 is obviously better as SOME legislation may get stalled but every goddamn judge is still going through.

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 12, 2018 16:56:39

50/50 also means any death/resignation/prolonged illness/etc. has the potential to change party control.

I would like very much to wager on the GOP sides at those odds in the 5 Dem states Trump won by double digits, but as has been demonstrated repeatedly, Nate Silver is smarter than I am (and pretty much everyone else).

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby JUburton » Wed Sep 12, 2018 16:59:01

1/3 feels about right in this climate. The model a month ago said 1/4, it seems.

On the podcast this week they said the generic ballot and net approval rating are moving toward the house is very likely and the senate is beginning to come in play. Most troubling thing for republicans might be that LV polls seem to be even more favorable to Democrats, which never happens.

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby slugsrbad » Wed Sep 12, 2018 17:03:37

jerseyhoya wrote:50/50 also means any death/resignation/prolonged illness/etc. has the potential to change party control.

I would like very much to wager on the GOP sides at those odds in the 5 Dem states Trump won by double digits, but as has been demonstrated repeatedly, Nate Silver is smarter than I am (and pretty much everyone else).


https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/54/Senate

I don't understand betting, but have at it!
Quick Google shows that GoGo is wrong with regards to the Kiwi and the Banana.

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 12, 2018 18:35:18

slugsrbad wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:50/50 also means any death/resignation/prolonged illness/etc. has the potential to change party control.

I would like very much to wager on the GOP sides at those odds in the 5 Dem states Trump won by double digits, but as has been demonstrated repeatedly, Nate Silver is smarter than I am (and pretty much everyone else).


https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/54/Senate

I don't understand betting, but have at it!

Sadly not offering the juicy 538 odds.

A volley of polls from Fox will bring the forecast a bit more in line with what I'm thinking, whenever they next update.

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby thephan » Wed Sep 12, 2018 20:13:28

You make the fox holes sound untrustworthy.
yawn

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby TenuredVulture » Wed Sep 12, 2018 20:55:03

Fox polls are usually not far off other polls. It isn't zogby or Rasmussen
Be Bold!

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby pacino » Wed Sep 12, 2018 21:14:50

my wife was harassed by two young guys in MAGA hats while she was canvassing for Planned Parenthood. they told her 'we're republicans, we don't like you here' (she wasn't at their door) and followed her a bit until they apparently came to their senses and decided to turn around. then one of her canvass mate was bit by a loose dog and had to go get rabies shots

what a night! travel in pairs! stay safe
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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 12, 2018 21:58:01

TenuredVulture wrote:Fox polls are usually not far off other polls. It isn't zogby or Rasmussen

Fox News polls are conducted jointly by a Republican and Democratic polling firm. They're legit.

The big result on there for me is Braun up on Donnelly. Everything else seemed to fall where CW has been putting things.

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby slugsrbad » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:40:38

slugsrbad wrote:
Donald Trump wrote:We got A Pluses for our recent hurricane work in Texas and Florida (and did an unappreciated great job in Puerto Rico, even though an inaccessible island with very poor electricity and a totally incompetent Mayor of San Juan). We are ready for the big one that is coming!


He's a sick man.


Donald Trump wrote:3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...
Quick Google shows that GoGo is wrong with regards to the Kiwi and the Banana.

Doll Is Mine wrote:This Ellen DeGeneres look alike on ESPN is annoying. Who the hell is he?

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:43:15

Can't wait for the second half of this gem

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby JFLNYC » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:48:50

jerseyhoya wrote:Can't wait for the second half of this gem


Donald Trump wrote:3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...


Donald Trump wrote:... but they died because of Obama (who was not born in America), freed criminal Hillary and the mayor of San Juan (who is a rapist and drug dealer, although some of his relatives may be good people)
Jamie

"A man who tells lies . . . merely hides the truth. But a man who tells half-lies has forgotten where he put it."

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby slugsrbad » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:49:53

Donald Trump wrote:3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000. This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!


I put the two together. He's fucking horrible.
Last edited by slugsrbad on Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:50:56, edited 2 times in total.
Quick Google shows that GoGo is wrong with regards to the Kiwi and the Banana.

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby The Crimson Cyclone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:49:56

jerseyhoya wrote:Can't wait for the second half of this gem



.....This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!
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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby CFP » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:51:19

JFLNYC wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Can't wait for the second half of this gem


Donald Trump wrote:3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...


Donald Trump wrote:... but they died because of Obama (who was not born in America), freed criminal Hillary and the mayor of San Juan (who is a rapist and drug dealer, although some of his relatives may be good people)


LOL this wasn't far off. The Dems killed all those people in PR!

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby CFP » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:52:46

I think this is (somehow) a new low

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby The Crimson Cyclone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:53:00

and the GOP will do nothing as they too busy pushing judicial appointments thru
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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby CFP » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:53:52

Just a reminder that this is a US territory

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Re: GOTV for Rep Moz ( (D-BSG) Politics Thread

Unread postby Slowhand » Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:57:25

JFLNYC wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Can't wait for the second half of this gem


Donald Trump wrote:3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...


Donald Trump wrote:... but they died because of Obama (who was not born in America), freed criminal Hillary and the mayor of San Juan (who is a rapist and drug dealer, although some of his relatives may be good people)


It’s sad that I wasn’t certain whether you made that up or he really said that. Sad!
Last edited by Slowhand on Thu Sep 13, 2018 08:57:50, edited 1 time in total.
How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!

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