Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Titlehungry » Mon Dec 16, 2019 17:35:58

McCutchen
Realmuto
Harper
Hoskins
Gregorius
Kingery
Segura
Haseley
P

my two cents...
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Monkeyboy » Mon Dec 16, 2019 21:50:41

Yeh, need more bats or arms or a little of each.

There's too many low OBP guys in the lineup for my liking. Most teams are like that in the bottom of their lineup, but we want to be better than most teams.

I'm fine filling in with what we have in the bullpen until we see how it shakes out, as long as we're w. It's the easiest commodity to get during the season. But I think we need a starter. I don't think we should hope on the guys who have no produced just because we have a new PC.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Woody » Mon Dec 16, 2019 22:36:16

How do we feel about Haseley
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Uncle Milty » Mon Dec 16, 2019 22:42:08

Woody wrote:How do we feel about Haseley

Can't match Odubel's hair or Quinn's smile

I'd like to see him get some chances at batting 2nd.
Last edited by Uncle Milty on Mon Dec 16, 2019 22:46:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby 06hawkalum » Mon Dec 16, 2019 22:42:39

Monkeyboy wrote:Yeh, need more bats or arms or a little of each.

There's too many low OBP guys in the lineup for my liking. Most teams are like that in the bottom of their lineup, but we want to be better than most teams.

I'm fine filling in with what we have in the bullpen until we see how it shakes out, as long as we're w. It's the easiest commodity to get during the season. But I think we need a starter. I don't think we should hope on the guys who have no produced just because we have a new PC.


Funny how we were all salivating over arguably an inferior lineup heading into the 2019 season.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Eem » Mon Dec 16, 2019 23:20:19

Woody wrote:How do we feel about Haseley

I think he’s very good as the worst hitter in the lineup

They still need another starter and basically an entire bullpen
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Monkeyboy » Tue Dec 17, 2019 01:20:58

06hawkalum wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Yeh, need more bats or arms or a little of each.

There's too many low OBP guys in the lineup for my liking. Most teams are like that in the bottom of their lineup, but we want to be better than most teams.

I'm fine filling in with what we have in the bullpen until we see how it shakes out, as long as we're w. It's the easiest commodity to get during the season. But I think we need a starter. I don't think we should hope on the guys who have no produced just because we have a new PC.


Funny how we were all salivating over arguably an inferior lineup heading into the 2019 season.



Going into 2019, I thought Hernandez would rebound a bit and his high OBP and occasional pop would be useful. And there was at least hope that Franco would put it together because he had good stretches the previous year. Odubel was an enigma, but he looked fantastic for long stretches (and horrible for long stretches). I think the 2019 version had a lot more upside going into the season than the 2020 team will ahve. That doesn't mean the 2020 version won't outperform the 2019 version, but the upside just isn't there, imho. Lots of low OBP guys with low to moderate power. It's nice to have some guys that can either get on base or have excellent power or excellent speed to steal a ton of bases, something that gives them at least one excellent skill. Haseley, Segura, Kingsley, and Gregorius all look ok as the 7th or 8th guy in the lineup, but we have 4 of them. I'm optimistic about Gregorius and hopeful the first half of last year was the real Kingery and that Haseley will continue to improve and Segura will bounce back.

But we've been through this for 2 yeasr with the pitching. Can't count on VV or Pivetta to be of much use outside of long relief.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby gulfcoaster » Tue Dec 24, 2019 22:48:04

"Haseley, Segura, Kingsley, and Gregorius all look ok as the 7th or 8th guy in the lineup, but we have 4 of them"

Yep.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby CalvinBall » Tue Dec 24, 2019 23:34:23

Who is Kingsley?

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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Bucky » Tue Dec 24, 2019 23:35:52

played ghandi

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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Dec 24, 2019 23:47:48

And never hit eighth.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Dec 25, 2019 00:13:05

Also loved him in Sneakers.

"Try prison."

But really, CB has trouble with contextual clues. Let's not confuse him further.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Shore » Wed Dec 25, 2019 02:11:18

Gregorius has a .478 SLG the last 4 years. He was 20th in MVP voting in both 2017 and 2018. Between 2016 and 2018, he was tied for 7th in the majors in fWAR for a SS - with Segura. The 2017 Yankees lost the ALCS, were the 2nd-highest scoring team in the majors, and their most common cleanup hitter was... Didi Gregorius. He batted mostly 4th, 5th, and 6th for a team that scored 851 runs. In 2018, they again were 2nd in the majors in runs, but Gregorius didn't bat cleanup as often - because he was their 3-hole hitter most frequently.

In the 3 years before last, Segura hit .308/.353/.449, for an .803 OPS and a 116 OPS+. Aside from 3 games, he batted 1st, 2nd, or 3rd exclusively.

If Gregorius and Segura bat 7/8 for you, you're scoring a TON of runs.

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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby phillychuck » Wed Dec 25, 2019 02:13:37

Shore wrote:Gregorius has a .478 SLG the last 4 years. He was 20th in MVP voting in both 2017 and 2018. Between 2016 and 2018, he was tied for 7th in the majors in fWAR for a SS - with Segura. The 2017 Yankees lost the ALCS, were the 2nd-highest scoring team in the majors, and their most common cleanup hitter was... Didi Gregorius. He batted mostly 4th, 5th, and 6th for a team that scored 851 runs. In 2018, they again were 2nd in the majors in runs, but Gregorius didn't bat cleanup as often - because he was their 3-hole hitter most frequently.

In the 3 years before last, Segura hit .308/.353/.449, for an .803 OPS and a 116 OPS+. Aside from 3 games, he batted 1st, 2nd, or 3rd exclusively.

If Gregorius and Segura bat 7/8 for you, you're scoring a TON of runs.


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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Dec 25, 2019 06:58:45

Shore wrote:Gregorius has a .478 SLG the last 4 years. He was 20th in MVP voting in both 2017 and 2018. Between 2016 and 2018, he was tied for 7th in the majors in fWAR for a SS - with Segura. The 2017 Yankees lost the ALCS, were the 2nd-highest scoring team in the majors, and their most common cleanup hitter was... Didi Gregorius. He batted mostly 4th, 5th, and 6th for a team that scored 851 runs. In 2018, they again were 2nd in the majors in runs, but Gregorius didn't bat cleanup as often - because he was their 3-hole hitter most frequently.

In the 3 years before last, Segura hit .308/.353/.449, for an .803 OPS and a 116 OPS+. Aside from 3 games, he batted 1st, 2nd, or 3rd exclusively.

If Gregorius and Segura bat 7/8 for you, you're scoring a TON of runs.


well, I'm on record repeatedly as liking the gregorius signing for the reasons you just described. I didn't post the numbers, but I pointed out he was very good and I thought he was going to break out big time last year before his injury. The problem is he did not perform well after coming back from the injury and we really don't know how he'll perform. Last year, coming off that injury, he was probably worse than Franco and that's all I said. Segura is at the age that he could start showing the type of decline we saw last year. Given his lack of on-base skills, he will most likely go downhill fast. It remains to be seen if last year was an aberration or the beginning of his decline. Jury is out. But based on last year's numbers, they looked like 7 and 8 hitters on a decent team. I would have no problem with that, but we may already have two other guys like that.

Anyway, if things break right for the phils, we could have a very good offense. My problem has always been that we are hoping for a lot of things to go right and they rarely do. Sure, Haseley could continue to improve, Kingery could play like the 1st half Kingery, Gregorius could look like the guy pre-injury, and Segura could rebound. Nobody is disputing that this would make us a pretty good team, especially if Cutch is healthy, but that's a lot of ifs. We have a lot of low OBP guys on this team if things don't break right and that usually leads to inconsistency scoring runs. I hope the dice roll right for us. Maybe we are due for some good luck.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Dec 25, 2019 07:00:37

phillychuck wrote:
Shore wrote:Gregorius has a .478 SLG the last 4 years. He was 20th in MVP voting in both 2017 and 2018. Between 2016 and 2018, he was tied for 7th in the majors in fWAR for a SS - with Segura. The 2017 Yankees lost the ALCS, were the 2nd-highest scoring team in the majors, and their most common cleanup hitter was... Didi Gregorius. He batted mostly 4th, 5th, and 6th for a team that scored 851 runs. In 2018, they again were 2nd in the majors in runs, but Gregorius didn't bat cleanup as often - because he was their 3-hole hitter most frequently.

In the 3 years before last, Segura hit .308/.353/.449, for an .803 OPS and a 116 OPS+. Aside from 3 games, he batted 1st, 2nd, or 3rd exclusively.

If Gregorius and Segura bat 7/8 for you, you're scoring a TON of runs.


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Yes, this, if segura is not starting his decline and Gregorius is back to his pre-injury self. I don't know what the likelihood of both of those things happening is, but it's not the slam dunk some are making it out to be.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Uncle Milty » Wed Dec 25, 2019 08:54:28

I appreciate the optimism. It's baseball so everything could break right for us this year but it's unlikely.

On Didi batting cleanup - ugh. Even during his tremendous slump to end the year Rhys' OBP rivaled what you'd expect from Didi. I don't want to trade all those outs in the middle of the lineup for 25 HRs and veteranosity.
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Bucky » Wed Dec 25, 2019 09:11:08

Shore wrote:Gregorius has a .478 SLG the last 4 years. He was 20th in MVP voting in both 2017 and 2018. Between 2016 and 2018, he was tied for 7th in the majors in fWAR for a SS - with Segura. The 2017 Yankees lost the ALCS, were the 2nd-highest scoring team in the majors, and their most common cleanup hitter was... Didi Gregorius. He batted mostly 4th, 5th, and 6th for a team that scored 851 runs. In 2018, they again were 2nd in the majors in runs, but Gregorius didn't bat cleanup as often - because he was their 3-hole hitter most frequently.

In the 3 years before last, Segura hit .308/.353/.449, for an .803 OPS and a 116 OPS+. Aside from 3 games, he batted 1st, 2nd, or 3rd exclusively.

If Gregorius and Segura bat 7/8 for you, you're scoring a TON of runs.



YEAH BUT WE REFUSE TO EXCEED THE CAP WE'RE LOSERS

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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby Monkeyboy » Thu Dec 26, 2019 00:41:12

We're not losers because of it, but it will make it difficult to compete given our roster.

The weird thing for me is that I have trouble believing that we are up against the cap. We don't have a ton of expensive guys and we have a lot of younger players. Harper is expensive, but there are more expensive players after this offseason. We have arrieta and wheeler and cutch and segura, but everyone seems to have a few players like that. I feel like we should have more money to spend. Maybe they are just bad at math. Someone recheck their numbers!
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Re: Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler - 5 Years/$118M

Postby phillychuck » Thu Dec 26, 2019 07:22:27

Monkeyboy wrote:We're not losers because of it, but it will make it difficult to compete given our roster.

Someone recheck their numbers!


Phils are about $5M under:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphi ... s/payroll/

And the Yanks are $50M over:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-yankees/payroll/

Phils are 6th in payroll once retained and buried numbers are added (to other teams). Sox, Yanks, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs ahead of us, Mets just behind.
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