Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby Bucky » Sun Feb 14, 2016 15:36:02

I think anyone who thinks it's important to vote because of the vacancy was probably gonna vote anyway

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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby pacino » Sun Feb 14, 2016 15:36:59

drsmooth wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:I'm not sure the Dems can count on its equivalent.


This is the part I'm thinking is not as easily defended. Are you basing this on some particular historical example(s), or a general sentiment about lazy young hippies not voting intelligently on down-ballot choices?

Since 2008 Democratic voters have done bupkus to elect anyone down ballot, to the point that pollsters have continually overestimated their turnout. They'll vote for the guy up top but don't seem to give a shit otherwise.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby MoBettle » Sun Feb 14, 2016 15:52:50

TenuredVulture wrote:Also, I think it's really counterproductive to complain about gerrymandering. Is it a thing? Absolutely. But it's not as big a thing as people make it out to be. Dems lose elections because Dem voters don't show up for mid term elections, and they really don't show up in state legislative races. On top of that, until recently generic Congressional election polls showed a slight lean towards the R side.

To be sure, a lot of this can be laid at the feet of the DNC, which got away from a very successful strategy of expanding the playing field, contesting as many house races as possible. Instead, they lavish resources on defending incumbents, focusing only on the most winnable races. And, as far as I can tell, they have no game plan for winning state legislative races--there's no ALEC equivalent. Assholes like Bloomberg and people like the no labels fuck faces should focus on that rather than vanity campaigns for President, or engaging in pointless calls to end partisan bickering. Partisan bickering is democracy. Don't like it? Go to Russia. No partisan bickering there.


I think a bigger issue than gerrymandering is that we have a system that breaks things down based on geography. And Democrats generally live in much more compact areas than Republicans.

I dont know how you fix that short of an amendment but it seems like a pretty outdated vestige of farmers having all of the money back in the 1700s.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby TenuredVulture » Sun Feb 14, 2016 16:37:54

MoBettle wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:Also, I think it's really counterproductive to complain about gerrymandering. Is it a thing? Absolutely. But it's not as big a thing as people make it out to be. Dems lose elections because Dem voters don't show up for mid term elections, and they really don't show up in state legislative races. On top of that, until recently generic Congressional election polls showed a slight lean towards the R side.

To be sure, a lot of this can be laid at the feet of the DNC, which got away from a very successful strategy of expanding the playing field, contesting as many house races as possible. Instead, they lavish resources on defending incumbents, focusing only on the most winnable races. And, as far as I can tell, they have no game plan for winning state legislative races--there's no ALEC equivalent. Assholes like Bloomberg and people like the no labels fuck faces should focus on that rather than vanity campaigns for President, or engaging in pointless calls to end partisan bickering. Partisan bickering is democracy. Don't like it? Go to Russia. No partisan bickering there.


I think a bigger issue than gerrymandering is that we have a system that breaks things down based on geography. And Democrats generally live in much more compact areas than Republicans.

I dont know how you fix that short of an amendment but it seems like a pretty outdated vestige of farmers having all of the money back in the 1700s.

I mean, if I had my way, we'd get rid of the Senate altogether, but that's not happening, and I'm not wasting any time on that. Figuring out how you can use the rules to your advantage is a far better way to think about politics.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby MoBettle » Sun Feb 14, 2016 16:55:23

TenuredVulture wrote:
MoBettle wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:Also, I think it's really counterproductive to complain about gerrymandering. Is it a thing? Absolutely. But it's not as big a thing as people make it out to be. Dems lose elections because Dem voters don't show up for mid term elections, and they really don't show up in state legislative races. On top of that, until recently generic Congressional election polls showed a slight lean towards the R side.

To be sure, a lot of this can be laid at the feet of the DNC, which got away from a very successful strategy of expanding the playing field, contesting as many house races as possible. Instead, they lavish resources on defending incumbents, focusing only on the most winnable races. And, as far as I can tell, they have no game plan for winning state legislative races--there's no ALEC equivalent. Assholes like Bloomberg and people like the no labels fuck faces should focus on that rather than vanity campaigns for President, or engaging in pointless calls to end partisan bickering. Partisan bickering is democracy. Don't like it? Go to Russia. No partisan bickering there.


I think a bigger issue than gerrymandering is that we have a system that breaks things down based on geography. And Democrats generally live in much more compact areas than Republicans.

I dont know how you fix that short of an amendment but it seems like a pretty outdated vestige of farmers having all of the money back in the 1700s.

I mean, if I had my way, we'd get rid of the Senate altogether, but that's not happening, and I'm not wasting any time on that. Figuring out how you can use the rules to your advantage is a far better way to think about politics.

No argument there, just saying it's accurate to say that the deck is stacked against democrats somewhat when we're talking about why they don't do better in down ticket elections.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby smitty » Sun Feb 14, 2016 17:49:09

The Feb. 1966 Fulbright hearings on Vietnam are on CSPAN 3. This is fascinating. George Kennan and Jumping Jim Gavin were right on the money.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby The Savior » Sun Feb 14, 2016 18:39:21

drsmooth wrote:
The Savior wrote:It would be the same if shoe was on other foot.


Pretty sure it wouldn't be "the same"

Not sure why people are up in arms.


It's simple. Let me explain it for you.

Elected Republican leaders of the body that has a role in passing on the President's nominations have said publicly - before they've been presented with such nominations - that they will reject them out of hand. I don't think there's even any need to probe their "thinking" about this tactical blunder. It's a tactical blunder in the national politics of the United States to publicly declare you'll use your position to have the institutional body you lead repudiate Constitutionally assigned governing responsibilities.

This is not a furtive, squalid, dead-of-night pact made by political ideologues in the wake of the election of a President they revile as much for his complexion as his views & intentions on governance. This is a considered declaration by people elected to public service in the Senate of the United States that they intend to disregard their Constitutional obligations.

It would be a blunder any time, but in an election year?


Did you not read my bit about determining whether the Republicans have the stomach for this? It's an election season for 27 of their seats, 3 or 4 of which could be truly tight races. This isn't a zero-sum game for the Republicans. If the Democrats think it's truly a foregone conclusion that Hilary/Sanders will win the White House, it's in their best interest for the Republicans to pump the brakes on an Obama nomination. It will feed the "anti-progress" and "anti-unity" rhetoric, which could really, really hurt Senate and House Republicans up for reelection this year.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby drsmooth » Sun Feb 14, 2016 19:02:06

The Savior wrote:Did you not read my bit about determining whether the Republicans have the stomach for this?


I'm quite sure I did not, no

It's an election season for 27 of their seats, 3 or 4 of which could be truly tight races. This isn't a zero-sum game for the Republicans.


You don't say?

If the Democrats think it's truly a foregone conclusion that Hilary/Sanders will win the White House, it's in their best interest for the Republicans to pump the brakes on an Obama nomination.


And if Obama puts forward a qualified nominee that the Rs jerk around & then reject, that's measurably better for Rs/worse for Ds (if not HRC/Bernie)? not sure I see that as clearly as you do
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby The Savior » Sun Feb 14, 2016 19:14:45

Worse for the republicans because no one will believe the rejection is anything but personal/political.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby pacino » Sun Feb 14, 2016 19:21:26

Reagan nominated Kennedy in Reagan's last year in office.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby Gimpy » Sun Feb 14, 2016 20:04:52

Can't imagine that a nominee in January of next year would be more liberal than a nominee now. Obama's in year 8. On the other hand, it would be a bad look for a new president to have their first major decision (a Supreme Court nomination) be smacked down by Congress. I definitely think a new Democratic president would go moderate next year if it drags out that long.

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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby Werthless » Sun Feb 14, 2016 20:56:55

Obama won 26 and 28 states in his 2 presidential elections. It's hard to see how the deck is stacked against Democrats in the Senate.

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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby The Crimson Cyclone » Sun Feb 14, 2016 22:02:08

Just saw an article on fb that said in the next nine days Obaba can make a recess appointment that bypasses the senate which has been done 12 times before. Last done by Eisenhauer
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby The Savior » Sun Feb 14, 2016 22:06:57

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:Just saw an article on fb that said in the next nine days Obaba can make a recess appointment that bypasses the senate which has been done 12 times before. Last done by Eisenhauer


Still needs approval after the recess.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby Gimpy » Sun Feb 14, 2016 23:15:17

Elizabeth Warren weighed in:

The sudden death of Justice Scalia creates an immediate vacancy on the most important court in the United States.
Senator McConnell is right that the American people should have a voice in the selection of the next Supreme Court justice. In fact, they did — when President Obama won the 2012 election by five million votes.
Article II Section 2 of the Constitution says the President of the United States nominates justices to the Supreme Court, with the advice and consent of the Senate. I can't find a clause that says "...except when there's a year left in the term of a Democratic President."
Senate Republicans took an oath just like Senate Democrats did. Abandoning the duties they swore to uphold would threaten both the Constitution and our democracy itself. It would also prove that all the Republican talk about loving the Constitution is just that — empty talk.

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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby The Savior » Sun Feb 14, 2016 23:36:49

That last line is why I said this isn't a zero sum game for McConnell.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby gr » Sun Feb 14, 2016 23:44:16

oh, its the most important court in the united states, is it? no shit.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby MoBettle » Sun Feb 14, 2016 23:51:13

Werthless wrote:Obama won 26 and 28 states in his 2 presidential elections. It's hard to see how the deck is stacked against Democrats in the Senate.

Well those 26 states have 200 million of the 320 million people that live in the country.
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby Titlehungry » Mon Feb 15, 2016 01:40:44

So who is gonna be the Republican nominee... I think they all have pretty killed each other to the point than none can beat Hillary. Kasich has pretty much stayed out of the mudslinging but doesn't seem to have the support or funds to win out... I think the prevailing RNC thought becomes Trump is their best bet to maybe insult and tout his way to an upset... then what? Who would he pick as a running mate?
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Re: Primary Cholers, or the Caucusin' Chat Circle (Politics)

Postby SK790 » Mon Feb 15, 2016 03:18:55

TenuredVulture wrote:Also, I think it's really counterproductive to complain about gerrymandering. Is it a thing? Absolutely. But it's not as big a thing as people make it out to be. Dems lose elections because Dem voters don't show up for mid term elections, and they really don't show up in state legislative races. On top of that, until recently generic Congressional election polls showed a slight lean towards the R side.

To be sure, a lot of this can be laid at the feet of the DNC, which got away from a very successful strategy of expanding the playing field, contesting as many house races as possible. Instead, they lavish resources on defending incumbents, focusing only on the most winnable races. And, as far as I can tell, they have no game plan for winning state legislative races--there's no ALEC equivalent. Assholes like Bloomberg and people like the no labels fuck faces should focus on that rather than vanity campaigns for President, or engaging in pointless calls to end partisan bickering. Partisan bickering is democracy. Don't like it? Go to Russia. No partisan bickering there.

There were over 1 million more votes for Democrats than Republicans in 2012, yet the Reps ended up 33 seats. I'm sure that made Democats in this country feel like they were represented fairly and motivated them to vote in 2014. Dems(lets be honest, youths) not voting in midterms and the DNC being dumb are both part of the problem, but acting like the system is fair, is a farce. Whether the problem is gerrymandering or something else doesn't make a difference; the way we elect our representatives is built on outdated, inefficient systems that give us a government that is not an accurate reflection of the electorate.
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