The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby dajafi » Sat Nov 17, 2012 02:01:34

Werthless wrote:

This is a pretty classic ad hominem. I mean, what did anyone learn about the fiscal cliff?


It's true. I can credit that the gambling magnate is a jackass, and that as a winner in the rigged game of deformed pseudo-capitalism who created no real value, he was a particularly bad advocate for the position he represented. But there wasn't a hell of a lot about that position, or its counterargument. Mostly I'm just irked at all you people for making me curious enough to violate my usual position of not bothering with any of ptk's useless shit.

I will admit to getting a lot of my analysis on the "fiscal cliff" from Krugman, who is pretty close to the "go over it and call the bastards' bluff" position. I don't share this view. My contention is that the major entitlements should be reformed anyway--along the lines of the post from a few pages back that Werthless lambasted me for, because I was only slightly more specific in my half-assed Internet musing than his presidential candidate of choice was in six years of running for the office. (Maybe he holds me to a higher standard than Ol' Mitt.) Means testing, cost controls, maybe differentiation in SS based on type of work. I hopefully won't need it as soon as a coal miner or RN might.

Beyond that, I think there's something both to the argument that predictable business conditions is a plus, and that a negotiated solution this time, even one less than ideal for "my" side, is preferable because this won't be the last thing we have to negotiate. (Think about baseball's labor negotiations over the last 20 years. The last two rounds haven't even come up on the radar, because when they barely avoided the brink in 2002 they reset the whole relationship. The game is now absurdly profitable.)

But I enjoy Krugman's pointing out the incoherence of the alarmists: the deficits are an existential threat! But the immediate and somehow even existential-er threat is shrinking them too fast! So keep the tax cuts for the rich! And let's achieve "reform" only by taking from programs that support low- and middle-income retirees! Almost like they don't really care about the structural budget issues at all...

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby bleh » Sat Nov 17, 2012 03:11:16

Werthless wrote:
Werthless wrote:

I probably didn't read this as closely as you, but can you explain this:
A rise in the capital gains top rate could increase
investment because of reduced risk.
This seems ludicrous on its face, that higher cap gains rates increase investment because it reduces the variability of the returns. I was skimming through the study when I saw this, and I have no idea how anyone can type such a thing with a straight face (unless I'm misinterpreting at this late hour).

That confusion aside, it's clear to many people that follow this stuff closely that the highest economic growth in the last 50 years or so has occurred in Democratic administrations. Most of us have probably seen the charts. We're also aware that the pace of economic growth has been slowly declining since the 1950s (obviously in a cyclical manner, with the business cycles). I'm not exactly sure what a "study" of these data was supposed to find, considering that the study found that all of these relationships were not statistically significant. After all, there are numerous international studies with more robust data that suggest that low government spending, stable political systems devoid of market interruptions, existence of financial stock markets, and low, steady inflation are all statistically significant drivers of economic growth. My first google hit shows this. Or this. And this.

Basically, this study's findings did nothing to "debunk conservative economic theory." But I'm interested in hearing why you (or others) think otherwise.

Anyone?

td11, these posts get ignored I guess. I read through this thread, and half the posts are trolling stuff like this. I respond in depth.... Nothing. Or, someone quotes the author's qualification instead of my argument. Even docsmooth, for all his lovable abrasiveness, puts effort into his posts and occassionally engages in the substance. :)

I really am sorry I make you feel sad.

I didn't post that to say "This proves conservative theory wrong, OWNED!". The article is about how it was a non-partisan study and rather than try to refute it (like you tried to do) the Republicans suppressed it because of its "tone". And I posted it in response to Mitch McConnell saying he thought the election wasn't a mandate. So the point is not only is he ignoring that the people essentially voted to raise taxes since they elected Obama (and polls that say more people want taxes on the rich raised), but that congressional study said raising taxes isn't bad and he ignored that too. So my point is "Republicans ignore a lot of stuff" I guess? I'm not too interested in getting into an in depth debate about conservative economic theories.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby drsmooth » Sat Nov 17, 2012 09:52:00

rick scott keeps doing stupid shit in florida, like writing sophomoric letters to sibelius in which he pretends he or his stooges have actually ever given even a second's thought to how they might do anything at the state level to temper health care costs in Florida, while simultaneously asserting they see no reason to believe ACA might contribute to doing such a thing.

Is there any chance he can get re-elected in 2014 without spending at least another $70 million of his own dough? A majority of Floridians seem to regard him as a dumber, uglier vlad the impaler. But he won office with under 50% of the vote the 1st time around, so who knows.
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby CalvinBall » Sat Nov 17, 2012 09:57:51

Image

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby JUburton » Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:01:21


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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby td11 » Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:26:08

CalvinBall wrote:Image


:-D 8-)
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby TenuredVulture » Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:38:58

She's pretty hot, if you consider the uh, athleticism and flexibility.
Be Bold!

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Philly the Kid » Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:38:32

dajafi wrote:
Werthless wrote:

This is a pretty classic ad hominem. I mean, what did anyone learn about the fiscal cliff?


It's true. I can credit that the gambling magnate is a jackass, and that as a winner in the rigged game of deformed pseudo-capitalism who created no real value, he was a particularly bad advocate for the position he represented. But there wasn't a hell of a lot about that position, or its counterargument. Mostly I'm just irked at all you people for making me curious enough to violate my usual position of not bothering with any of ptk's useless #$!&@.

I will admit to getting a lot of my analysis on the "fiscal cliff" from Krugman, who is pretty close to the "go over it and call the bastards' bluff" position. I don't share this view. My contention is that the major entitlements should be reformed anyway--


Thought you were better than this as a thinker Dajafi. I don't know what you are really advocating? Keep the Bush Tax Breaks for wealthy and corps? While cutting SS ? REFORMED? What does that mean? Why the focus on social programs and so-called entitlements? Not on the devastation of Private Equity shenanigans

more on deficit mongers

and more

Sorry, I'll stick with smart economists than self-proclaimed experts of BSG.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby jamiethekiller » Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:42:23

pretty sure dafaji has articulated his plan on here several times.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Philly the Kid » Sat Nov 17, 2012 13:06:40

jamiethekiller wrote:pretty sure dafaji has articulated his plan on here several times.



link?

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Philly the Kid » Sat Nov 17, 2012 13:09:55

jerseyhoya wrote:They aren't even the authors credentials really. It's just a list of names. One of the cofounders, Mark Weisbrot, appears to be a professional Hugo Chavez apologist.



credentials look sound

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Philly the Kid » Sat Nov 17, 2012 13:12:37

Wiki on Dean Baker

Basing his outlook on house-price data-sets produced by the US government, Baker was among the first economists to assert that there was a bubble in the US housing market in August 2002,[7] well before its peak in December 2005,[8] and one of the few economists to predict that the collapse of this bubble must lead to recession, and also correctly predicted this recession would hit in 2007.[9][10][11][12][13] He has been critical of the regulatory framework of the real estate and financial industries, the use of financial instruments like CDOs, and the incompetence and conflicting interests of US politicians or regulators, such as Hank Paulson.[14]
Baker opposed the US government bailout of Wall Street banks on the basis that the only people who stood to lose from their collapse were their shareholders and well-paid CEOs. Regarding any hypothetical, negative effects of not extending the bailout, he has explained, "We know how to keep the financial system operating even as banks go into bankruptcy and receivership,"[15] citing US government action taken during the S&L crisis of the 1980s.[16] He has ridiculed the US elite for favoring it, asking, "How do you make a DC intellectual look less articulate than Sarah Palin being interviewed by Katie Couric? That's easy. You ask them how failure to pass the bailout will give us a Great Depression."[17]

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Barry Jive » Sat Nov 17, 2012 16:28:31

JUburton wrote:http://www.theonion.com/articles/america-ends-love-affair-with-mckayla-maroney-afte,29933/


sigh
no offense but you are everything that's wrong with America

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Monkeyboy » Sat Nov 17, 2012 17:54:00

dajafi wrote:
But I enjoy Krugman's pointing out the incoherence of the alarmists: the deficits are an existential threat! But the immediate and somehow even existential-er threat is shrinking them too fast! So keep the tax cuts for the rich! And let's achieve "reform" only by taking from programs that support low- and middle-income retirees! Almost like they don't really care about the structural budget issues at all...



I'm reasonably sure they don't.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Philly the Kid » Sat Nov 17, 2012 18:31:12


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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Philly the Kid » Sat Nov 17, 2012 18:33:54


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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Philly the Kid » Sat Nov 17, 2012 18:39:39


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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Philly the Kid » Sat Nov 17, 2012 18:42:21


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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby dajafi » Sun Nov 18, 2012 14:10:55

Here's a really good take on Republican problems from National Review.

The Democrats lost majority status in 1968 — they would lose five of six presidential elections from that year through 1988, and win one by a hair — but Republicans did not gain it. They never held the House and rarely held the Senate during that streak of presidential wins. Why didn’t Republicans become the dominant party then? It wasn’t because of foreign policy: That boosted them during the second half of the Cold War, when the Democrats became the relatively dovish party. That’s a big reason Republicans did better at the presidential than at the congressional level. It wasn’t because of social issues: The hippies and McGovernites helped make Republicans the party of middle-class values.

What they did not do is make the Republicans the party of middle-class economic interests. Most Americans associated the party with big business and the country club, and did not agree with its impulses on the minimum wage, entitlement programs, and other forms of government activism designed to protect ordinary people from cold markets. Americans came to be skeptical of government activism mainly when they thought it was undermining middle-class values (as they thought welfare undermined the work ethic). And even when voters thought Republicans were better managers of the economy in general, they thought the GOP looked out for the rich rather than the common man.
...
The absence of a middle-class message was the biggest failure of the Romney campaign, and it was not its failure alone. Down-ticket Republican candidates weren’t offering anything more — not the established Republicans, not the tea-partiers, not the social conservatives. Conservative activists weren’t demanding that Romney or any of these other Republicans do anything more. Some of them were complaining that Romney wasn’t “taking the fight to Obama”; few of them were urging him to outline a health-care plan that would reassure voters that replacing Obamacare wouldn’t mean taking health insurance away from millions of people.
...
The Republican story about how societies prosper — not just the Romney story — dwelt on the heroic entrepreneur stifled by taxes and regulations: an important story with which most people do not identify. The ordinary person does not see himself as a great innovator. He, or she, is trying to make a living and support or maybe start a family. A conservative reform of our health-care system and tax code, among other institutions, might help with these goals. About this person, however, Republicans have had little to say.


I think this is right on. Problem is that when you disdain the entire exercise of government and reject the first principle that it might have some value for people--when, say, your top theorist says he wants to "drown government in a bathtub," and everybody nods in agreement or golf claps--it gets very tough very quickly to make the argument that "we can do this better."

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 18, 2012 14:21:42

@rupertmurdoch Why Is Jewish owned press so consistently anti- Israel in every crisis?
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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