Truck Yourself, This is the NEW Politics Thread

Postby drsmooth » Fri Jan 22, 2010 22:24:53

jerseyhoya wrote:Day after: SCOTUS ruling not so bad?

I was told otherwise. docsmooth promised battery acid.


my metaphorical acid has its pernicious effects circulating in your system, not thrown in your face.

This scribe thinks bombs are only weapons when they explode. Remarks like this are jaw-droppingly disingenuous:

“I think this will be very incremental,” said Gross. “The chamber and other trade associations will undoubtedly accumulate funds for targeted races, but I don’t see this seeping its way into competitive races all over the country."


no kidding - relatively few elections are real contests anyway. Of course the $ will be used in competitive races.
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Postby swishnicholson » Sat Jan 23, 2010 02:50:27

jerseyhoya wrote:Day after: SCOTUS ruling not so bad?

I was told otherwise. docsmooth promised battery acid.


So they've been given a bazooka but they might be afraid to use it? Somehow that doesn't really make me feel better.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this decision. While I can definitely see the merits of the specific case before the court, the extension of this to all corporate political "speech" still strikes me as absurd. After working for a number of corporations, I thought I had a very clear idea of what they were and what they weren't. When people would whine that the corporation "didn't care", I'd think of course not, that's like expecting a fish to fly (all right, some do, just STFU), a financial entity can't be expected to have feelings, even though there may be some decent people in them. When corporations would run image ads about saving the caribou or whatever, you could recognize the financial stake in what they were doing, and figure they were just looking to the bottom line, which supposedly would be good for shareholders and employees.

But choosing a candidate is a much more personal decision. A corporation can not "know" or "trust" or even "agree" with a person. Political ads supporting candidates will fall into two categories-those cynically supporting the bottom line, or vanity ads by the controllers of the corporation who will falsely speak for the employees and shareholders who actually comprise the business. The first is less dangerous as long as it is properly labeled-although I suspect it will not be long before the "reprisals" proviso now in the law will be abused. The second form,though, places absurd amounts of resources in the hands of individuals, who can now anonymously make themselves heard while purportedly representing organizations that may comprise thousands of people with differing opinions. Corporations still can not feel, but the people who control the purse strings do, and it is their voice that will be amplified to a degree far beyond that of other citizens, without the transparency currently accorded individual supporters.
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Postby drsmooth » Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:01:57

swishnicholson wrote:
I'm still trying to wrap my head around this decision. While I can definitely see the merits of the specific case before the court, the extension of this to all corporate political "speech" still strikes me as absurd.


The giddy overreach of the decision, coupled with particulars of its timing and production, does nothing whatever for Scalia's reputation in some circles as a brainier variant of teh Cheney (a vile hypocritical weasel, if you prefer).
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Postby TenuredVulture » Sat Jan 23, 2010 13:21:52

drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Day after: SCOTUS ruling not so bad?

I was told otherwise. docsmooth promised battery acid.


my metaphorical acid has its pernicious effects circulating in your system, not thrown in your face.

This scribe thinks bombs are only weapons when they explode. Remarks like this are jaw-droppingly disingenuous:

“I think this will be very incremental,” said Gross. “The chamber and other trade associations will undoubtedly accumulate funds for targeted races, but I don’t see this seeping its way into competitive races all over the country."


no kidding - relatively few elections are real contests anyway. Of course the $ will be used in competitive races.


Maybe. But really, the best way to raise money is to be a heavy favorite. Businesses want access to guys who are in office.
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Postby dajafi » Sat Jan 23, 2010 13:43:46

The incumbent reelection rate doesn't have that much more room to climb. Which I guess is a data point for the "not that big of a deal" side of the argument.

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Postby drsmooth » Sat Jan 23, 2010 21:07:48

TenuredVulture wrote:
drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Day after: SCOTUS ruling not so bad?

I was told otherwise. docsmooth promised battery acid.


my metaphorical acid has its pernicious effects circulating in your system, not thrown in your face.

This scribe thinks bombs are only weapons when they explode. Remarks like this are jaw-droppingly disingenuous:

“I think this will be very incremental,” said Gross. “The chamber and other trade associations will undoubtedly accumulate funds for targeted races, but I don’t see this seeping its way into competitive races all over the country."


no kidding - relatively few elections are real contests anyway. Of course the $ will be used in competitive races.


Maybe. But really, the best way to raise money is to be a heavy favorite. Businesses want access to guys who are in office.


there's where the threat of use of money, like the threat of nukes, can have a bigger impact on behavior than the actual use.
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

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Postby jerseyhoya » Sun Jan 24, 2010 23:41:19

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry (D) will announce plans to retire after seven terms, according to two sources familiar with his plans.

The move would make him the second Arkansas Democrat – after Rep. Vic Snyder – to announce plans this month to forego a re-election bid.

Berry would be the twelfth House Democrat to retire this year, and the fifth from a district John McCain won in 2008, and Republicans are certain to target his seat.

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Postby TenuredVulture » Sun Jan 24, 2010 23:51:43

jerseyhoya wrote:
Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry (D) will announce plans to retire after seven terms, according to two sources familiar with his plans.

The move would make him the second Arkansas Democrat – after Rep. Vic Snyder – to announce plans this month to forego a re-election bid.

Berry would be the twelfth House Democrat to retire this year, and the fifth from a district John McCain won in 2008, and Republicans are certain to target his seat.


I don't know if that will be an R pick up. It's certainly possible, it's R+8 according to Cook. But Mike Beebe, who is very popular statewide, and especially popular in that district will work hard for the Democrat. Problem is State AG Dustin McDaniel, the most high profile Dem in the district might not want to give up an almost certain re-election for a shot at a 2 year job.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Jan 25, 2010 13:01:55

Beau Biden isn't running for Senate, making Castle the prohibitive favorite to pick up the seat.

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Postby swishnicholson » Mon Jan 25, 2010 14:37:36

I'm not a huge fan of Matt Bai, but his article in the Times Magazine this past Sunday sounds basically right. Generally it states that we should be very wary of declaring great cultural shifts(left or right) based on recent elections since the mood is much more "throw the bums out" (whichever bums they may be) and change for change sake rather than some ideological uprising, although the prevalence of ideological allegiances contributes to the volatility.

link

Even more consequential, though, is the fast-growing swath of voters who can summon no affinity for either party. As in other aspects of modern American life, brand allegiance in politics is at an all-time low; more than a third of Americans (and more than half of all Massachusetts voters) identify themselves as independents rather than as members of the blue team or the red. The most prevalent ideology of the era seems to be not liberalism nor conservatism so much as anti-incumbency, a reflexive distrust of whoever has power and a constant rallying cry for systemic reform.
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Postby dajafi » Mon Jan 25, 2010 14:55:19

swishnicholson wrote:I'm not a huge fan of Matt Bai, but his article in the Times Magazine this past Sunday sounds basically right. Generally it states that we should be very wary of declaring great cultural shifts(left or right) based on recent elections since the mood is much more "throw the bums out" (whichever bums they may be) and change for change sake rather than some ideological uprising, although the prevalence of ideological allegiances contributes to the volatility.

link

Even more consequential, though, is the fast-growing swath of voters who can summon no affinity for either party. As in other aspects of modern American life, brand allegiance in politics is at an all-time low; more than a third of Americans (and more than half of all Massachusetts voters) identify themselves as independents rather than as members of the blue team or the red. The most prevalent ideology of the era seems to be not liberalism nor conservatism so much as anti-incumbency, a reflexive distrust of whoever has power and a constant rallying cry for systemic reform.


I think he has the mood right (just going from this excerpt--I haven't read the piece yet). But the re-election rates are still pretty high, so there's a risk of overstating things.

In the larger sense, I think the failure of our system in terms of governance (my big theme here these days) is a reflection of a larger mental muddle in the political culture, one much exacerbated by the brain-deadness of the media coverage. A new pollfinds that three of four Americans think the stimulus money was "wasted" solely on political projects, which is an extreme view even conservative economists reject.

Of course, of the $787 billion in the package, $288 billion was for tax cuts to 95% of all Americans and $275 billion was for states to prevent cuts in public services. Most of the remaining money dedicated for specific "shovel-ready projects" hasn't even been spent yet because the projects were not "shovel-ready."

Joe Klein: "It is very difficult to have a democracy without citizens. It is impossible to be a citizen if you don't make an effort to understand the most basic activities of your government. It is very difficult to thrive in an increasingly competitive world if you're a nation of dodos."


Some of that is the Democrats' tactical ineptitude, but I think it's also a product of public skepticism about government so deep that it's impervious (or maybe indifferent) to data.

Meanwhile, throwing a new set of bums out every two years seems like a great way to make sure nobody develops legislative expertise, or bothers to think seriously about long-term problems.

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Postby Woody » Mon Jan 25, 2010 14:58:23

Image

Try to look at it from my point of view. I have no reason to live. In my 59 years, I've made millions of dollars, built a veritable media empire, and accomplished virtually everything that a man of my limited imagination and worldview could possibly accomplish. And yet, at this point, in no way could you refer to what I'm doing as "living," exactly. I just sort of exist. I derive no real pleasure from life. Oh, sure, I talk a big game about what a golf nut I am and how much I enjoy the taste of a fine cigar, but it's all horseshit. Complete and utter horseshit.


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you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Postby dajafi » Mon Jan 25, 2010 15:02:15

[url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/125345/Obama-Approval-Polarized-First-Year-President.aspx]And then there's this:
[/url]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The 65 percentage-point gap between Democrats' (88%) and Republicans' (23%) average job approval ratings for Barack Obama is easily the largest for any president in his first year in office, greatly exceeding the prior high of 52 points for Bill Clinton.
...
[G.W.] Bush's average Republican-Democratic gap for his eight years in office was 61 points. This included the record gap for a single approval rating: 83 points, which occurred twice -- in September 2004 (95% Republican, 12% Democratic) and October 2004 (94% Republican, 11% Democratic).
...
Prior to Ronald Reagan, no president averaged more than a 40-point gap in approval ratings by party during his term; since then, only the elder George Bush has averaged less than a 50-point gap, including Obama's average 65-point gap to date.


Given increasing ideological segregation in terms of news sources and echo-chamber effects, I can't imagine what it would take to turn this around.

(Actually I kind of can, but really don't want to.)

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Postby drsmooth » Mon Jan 25, 2010 15:32:55

Last edited by drsmooth on Mon Jan 25, 2010 16:41:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby traderdave » Mon Jan 25, 2010 15:45:27

swishnicholson wrote:I'm not a huge fan of Matt Bai, but his article in the Times Magazine this past Sunday sounds basically right. Generally it states that we should be very wary of declaring great cultural shifts(left or right) based on recent elections since the mood is much more "throw the bums out" (whichever bums they may be) and change for change sake rather than some ideological uprising, although the prevalence of ideological allegiances contributes to the volatility.

link

Even more consequential, though, is the fast-growing swath of voters who can summon no affinity for either party. As in other aspects of modern American life, brand allegiance in politics is at an all-time low; more than a third of Americans (and more than half of all Massachusetts voters) identify themselves as independents rather than as members of the blue team or the red. The most prevalent ideology of the era seems to be not liberalism nor conservatism so much as anti-incumbency, a reflexive distrust of whoever has power and a constant rallying cry for systemic reform.


I think the excerpt is generally as true as it is troubling. I understand the anti-incumbent sentiment (look at NJ governor's race, for example) but I wish that the average voter would realize that voting GOP vs. an incumbent DEM or vice-versa does not automatically mean you are putting somebody better in office.

I am a registered Democrat but I had no problem at all voting for Christie, not because he wasn't Jon Corzine but because I thought Corzine was completely ineffective and Christie was better for New Jersey. I guess I just wish that people took a step back for two minutes and thought their vote over before pushing the button. Perhaps once or twice in all my years of voting have I ever voted for somebody strictly because they were a Democrat; I am very much a best guy/gal for the job kinda person (not implying that makes me special or anything).

Am I completely off-base here, Hoya? Has there been (or could there be) a circumstance where you voted Democrat simply because you thought he/she was the better candidate?

And by the way, Rush, don't do us any favors!

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Postby Phan In Phlorida » Mon Jan 25, 2010 16:22:18



...worthless, amoral, cocksucking fuckface

Wow, the voices in his head call him the exact same names my dad used to call him...

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Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Jan 25, 2010 16:30:49

traderdave wrote:Am I completely off-base here, Hoya? Has there been (or could there be) a circumstance where you voted Democrat simply because you thought he/she was the better candidate?


I voted for a Democrat or two in DC just because there wasn't a Republican running. I don't think I've ever voted for a Democrat in a competitive race, although depending on who she picks as her veep, I could see myself voting for Obama against Palin.

In legislative races I'd have a hard time voting for the better candidate from the opposite party just because their main job is voting, not being a good person. In executive races, whether on a state or national level, I think personality/leadership qualities have to play a big role in addition to issue stances.

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Postby drsmooth » Mon Jan 25, 2010 16:40:44

from dailykos FWIW

....And what is the dupe du jour?

Officials of both parties are sharply criticizing a fundraising mailing from Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele they say could be confused with official correspondence regarding this year’s Census.

The fundraising letter comes in the form of a "survey," a frequently used device for partisan fundraising, but this one has a twist: calling itself the "Congressional District Census," the letter comes in an envelope starkly printed with the words, "DO NOT DESTROY OFFICIAL DOCUMENT" and describes itself, on the outside of the envelope, as a "census document."

Sounds illegal, doesn't it? But because it doesn't "use the full name of the Census Bureau or the seal of any government agency," it apparently manages to stay just this side of legal.

And naturally, since it's goal is to dupe its supporters, it is expected to be "among the RNC’s most lucrative fundraising initiatives."


apparently an "unnamed Republican operative" supplied this tidbit to a kos poster.

illegal, i dunno - cheesy, definitely
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Postby dajafi » Mon Jan 25, 2010 17:56:33

jerseyhoya wrote:In legislative races I'd have a hard time voting for the better candidate from the opposite party just because their main job is voting, not being a good person. In executive races, whether on a state or national level, I think personality/leadership qualities have to play a big role in addition to issue stances.


This makes perfect sense. I guess it's kind of ironic that political machines historically have been, and probably remain, most effective at the level (local) where partisan affiliation means the least. Of course, machines are about patronage, not ideology.

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Postby pacino » Mon Jan 25, 2010 19:13:24

Lt Governor of South Carolina sez:
"My grandmother was not a highly educated woman, but she told me as a small child to quit feeding stray animals. You know why? Because they breed," Bauer said, according to the Greenville News. "You're facilitating the problem if you give an animal or a person ample food supply. They will reproduce, especially ones that don't think too much further than that. And so what you've got to do is you've got to curtail that type of behavior. They don't know any better."

The comments on that comment are fun. Why did news sites start allowing people to comment on stories?
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