Full of Passionate Intensity: POLITICS THREAD

Postby kruker » Mon Oct 19, 2009 13:07:10

dajafi wrote:I trust that if there's a true differentiation between "the Taliban," religious fanatics who are driven by ideology, and the majority of Afghanis who are currently trying to kill American soldiers, we can identify and exploit those differences through more cost-effective and probably more effective period than fighting a war in which the commitment we're willing to make falls far, far short of what "victory" will require.

Think about how crazy and arrogant this is: we are trying to both win a military struggle and perform the Triple Lindy of nation-building halfway around the world, without a draft or general societal mobilization of any kind or even a tax increase. It won't work because it can't work. Which isn't to say that what we want to see happen there isn't important, or even that it was a bad idea in the first place--just that the world has changed, so our approach should change.

More broadly, we need to get out of the habit of thinking we can and somehow should solve every foreign policy problem with force. It goes against our best traditions, it's horribly unfair to the military community which bears all the pain, and it's doing more than anything else to bankrupt us. I'm no pacifist, but this isn't rational.


I'm not sure that we are capable of nation building, but from reading the McChrystal report, I'm encouraged that he emphasized that his strategy wasn't about force. It was about winning the people over, you can decide for yourself if that's possible, and building up the ANSF, again, decide for yourself if that's really possible. In the report, Gen. McChrystal says something along the lines of "to focus on the troop requirement is to miss the point entirely". The troop surge is for a short term security force (12 months according to the report), but the broader strategy is one of diplomacy.

If nothing else, I think McChrystal gets it. Whether or not we have the capability to ameliorate a situation that's gone terribly wrong to this point is a legit concern, but if you read the report in full, you'll see that the McChrystal plan is less about force than close cultural interactions. I'd like to see his plan implemented with another review in 18 months. It'd be a shame to leave Afghanistan after all these years with little to show for our efforts and with the most reasonable course of action unimplemented.

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Postby Woody » Mon Oct 19, 2009 13:19:23

Will we be carrying automatic weapons when we try and win them over?
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Oct 19, 2009 13:22:37

Probably, but everyone in Afghanistan has automatic weapons.

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Postby Woody » Mon Oct 19, 2009 13:28:19

It's a lot like a Dodgers game in that regard
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Postby kruker » Mon Oct 19, 2009 13:40:59

These concepts are not new. However, implemented aggressively, they wilt be revolutionary to our effectiveness. We must do things dramatically differently -- even uncomfortably differently -- to change how we operate, and also how we think. Our every action must reflect this change of mindset: how we traverse the country, how we use force, and how we partner with the Afghans. Conventional wisdom is not sacred; security may not come from the barrel of a gun. Better force protection may be counterintuitive; it might come from less armor and less distance from the population.

.....

Hard-earned credibility and face-to-face relationships, rather than close combat, will achieve success. This requires enabling Afghan counterparts to meet the needs of the people at the community level through dynamic partnership, engaged leadership, de-centralized decision making, and a fundamental shift in priorities.


Whether it's possible for the military to carry out nation building is a valid concern, but I'm of the mindset that after all this time of operating under a strategy that was doomed to fail, we might as well try one that has a chance to succeed.

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Postby dajafi » Mon Oct 19, 2009 13:44:21

kruker wrote:
These concepts are not new. However, implemented aggressively, they wilt be revolutionary to our effectiveness. We must do things dramatically differently -- even uncomfortably differently -- to change how we operate, and also how we think. Our every action must reflect this change of mindset: how we traverse the country, how we use force, and how we partner with the Afghans. Conventional wisdom is not sacred; security may not come from the barrel of a gun. Better force protection may be counterintuitive; it might come from less armor and less distance from the population.

.....

Hard-earned credibility and face-to-face relationships, rather than close combat, will achieve success. This requires enabling Afghan counterparts to meet the needs of the people at the community level through dynamic partnership, engaged leadership, de-centralized decision making, and a fundamental shift in priorities.


Whether it's possible for the military to carry out nation building is a valid concern, but I'm of the mindset that after all this time of operating under a strategy that was doomed to fail, we might as well try one that has a chance to succeed.


The second half of what you quote is my concern. "Afghan counterparts" haven't done much to justify a great deal of faith.

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Postby kruker » Mon Oct 19, 2009 14:06:23

I'm with you. A major problem, and I shouldn't have used the term "nation building" in place of "state building", is that there really is no united Afghan nation. Expecting a mix of people to come together and fight for a state that doesn't constitute a singular nation is problematic.

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Postby CrashburnAlley » Tue Oct 20, 2009 01:42:48

Solid analysis of Obama's policies are contained within this video clip.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ZlNQ5gZVytk&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ZlNQ5gZVytk&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
Crashburn Alley

WTF C'MON GUYZ STOP BEING PPL AND START BEIN HOCKY ROBOTS
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Postby Werthless » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:42:15

Image

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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:49:32

Every war is like Vietnam! Except when asking for more troops does help like Iraq. Which might be more relevant since it happened last week instead of last century.

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Postby Werthless » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:52:39

What's the goal here? Do we win when there are 0 members of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan? We're gonna keep changing the requirements of what's "needed before we can leave" indefinitely. More troops to find Bin Laden. More troops to stabilize the cluster-fuck that we caused. More troops because our troops caused an anti-American group to rise in local power. More troops to train local security forces. Peace troops to protect the civilians. It's not working well, so we'll add more troops to see if that works, since we can't leave now that we've screwed up the country. Success. Use more troops everywhere. Permanent bases to protect our interests in the region, because we can't trust Germany to protect themselves yet. Etc etc. That is the consensus Washington opinion, from LBJ to Obama, with only a few exceptions.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:06:30

We caused the cluster fuck in Afghanistan. It was such a lovely, peaceful place before we attacked it. No one there ever did anything to anybody.

The Taliban cannot be allowed to return to power. Any government that was complicit in the death of thousands of American civilians must not be allowed to run a country. The goal, as I understand it, is for a short term ramp up in troops to better prosecute the war, protect Afghani civilians and buy time to train up native security forces.

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Postby jeff2sf » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:12:20

Werthless, what is so hard about doing what the general recommends for one year, assessing, and then pulling out if things aren't going as well?

Were you against the surge? Do I seem that bloodthirsty to you?
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Postby Werthless » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:17:40

You're probably right. We'll be gone once that's done.

Image

Countries with a US military presence in 2007.
More than 1000 US troops
More than 100 US troops
Use of military facilities

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Postby jeff2sf » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:19:16

Ok, so just to be clear, you're against every troop outside of the US, and this is just a convenient place for you to get on your soap box. I can dig it. A peace-loving conservative.
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Postby Harpua » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:19:40

Sucks for the guys all the way at the top.

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Postby Houshphandzadeh » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:21:57

DOMINATION baby

U.S. in six

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Postby Werthless » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:22:39

jeff2sf wrote:Ok, so just to be clear, you're against every troop outside of the US, and this is just a convenient place for you to get on your soap box. I can dig it. A peace-loving conservative.

Not quite. It's that the recent evidence of the US military mission does not place proper emphasis on the value in returning our troops home, saving their lives, building our infrastructure, and spending money frugally. Afghanistan is the latest manifestation of that.

But yes, I am a peaceloving conservative. I value peace very much.

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Postby dajafi » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:44:12

jeff2sf wrote:Werthless, what is so hard about doing what the general recommends for one year, assessing, and then pulling out if things aren't going as well?

Were you against the surge? Do I seem that bloodthirsty to you?


So you think that right before the 2010 midterms, if things aren't going well, the Democrats will decide to "cut and run"? I somehow have trouble seeing Rahm Emanuel going along with that.

The way our politics work, more force and more war are always going to meet with approval from the pundit class. Until we can change that (and I have no idea how you change that--short of reinstating the draft, which might actually put their fucking kids in harm's way), the only thing to be done is to take de-escalation actions at the deadest spots in the political calendar.

FWIW, I'd have an easier time with "defer to the generals and wait a year" if I had any faith at all that the generals in a year's time would refrain from asking for even more troops, and just another 6-12 months to "build on the progress we're seeing on the ground." They always have, and they always will. Organizational cultures don't argue to reduce their own missions or footprints.

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Postby jeff2sf » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:49:56

Ok, so it's all based on the idea that generals always ask for more troops, that everything is Vietnam, etc and that nothing ever changes.

Well f that. We're not actually debating whether this is right, it all comes down to "this is how generals behave", "war is bad" etc. You're just hitting find/replace on the country. And apparently if you think the troops should stay in a country, you always think the troops should stay in. Again, I'm not a war mongerer. I have been appalled by pretty much everything that happened in Iraq from the onset (save the surge).

Again, I'm not the guy who said this is the war we should be fighting. Obama did, you (standing for NE Liberal) did. So now go ahead and fight the damn war.
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