Al Franken Century / Super Inaug-u-rama Politics Thread

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Fri Jan 30, 2009 13:59:23

Karl Rove in jail would make my year
I would rather see you lose than win myself

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Postby dajafi » Fri Jan 30, 2009 14:43:22

Werthless wrote:
dajafi wrote:Now the Republicans have to start finding ways to resolve their big glaring contradiction: a seemingly bottomless appetite for use of force abroad and moral compulsion at home, especially but not exclusively around sex, coupled with an absolute hands-off view toward the economy and contempt for redistributive social welfare in almost all its forms. This set of positions makes no sense, and doesn't appeal to anyone but the true believers. It also tees up wrenching contradictions like the one I once posed to Vox: when you go totally laissez-faire on the economy, middle- and low-skilled workers get squeezed the hardest, and that in turn puts unbearable pressures on their families--so you have more divorce, more unwanted pregnancies (and abortions), more crime. It's pretty much impossible to have 1950s family values without 1950s economic policies.

I really liked your post, and agreed with almost all of it. But I strongly disagree with what you put in bold. Now, I know that it's probably just your opinion, but it is often presented as fact by political commentators. Economic freedoms are strongly correlated with large growth rates in GDP, and changes in economic freedom are even greater predictors of growth rates.

Now, what you're talking about has to do with inequality, which is a slightly different issue. Republicans generally concern themselves with growing the economic pie. Democrats generally concern themselves with how the pie is distributed, and don't worry too much about how fast the pie is growing, as long as it's getting bigger. This explains many (but not all, obviously) policy differences. Free trade (R issue) vs. fair trade or protectionism (D), lower taxes (R) vs. higher taxes (D), less welfare (R) vs. more welfare (D), environmentalism as a cost/benefit analysis (R) vs. conservation at all costs (D), etc. I'm obviously exaggerating the differences between R and D, but I did that because their actual policy differences are sometimes laughably similar.

Do you have some information on crime rates or divorce rates that have to do with the amount of government regulations, to back up your claim that raising government regulations lowers the crime and divorce rate? You might say "that's not what I meant," but when you claim that laissez-faire policies lead to high crime and divorce, that leads me to believe that the opposite of laissez-faire (ie. government regulation) has the opposite effect.


Yes, I'm talking about inequality. Given the characteristic distortions and blase yet obnoxious tone of your post, it's probably best to leave it at that.

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Postby lethal » Fri Jan 30, 2009 15:10:17

dajafi wrote:
Werthless wrote:
dajafi wrote:Now the Republicans have to start finding ways to resolve their big glaring contradiction: a seemingly bottomless appetite for use of force abroad and moral compulsion at home, especially but not exclusively around sex, coupled with an absolute hands-off view toward the economy and contempt for redistributive social welfare in almost all its forms. This set of positions makes no sense, and doesn't appeal to anyone but the true believers. It also tees up wrenching contradictions like the one I once posed to Vox: when you go totally laissez-faire on the economy, middle- and low-skilled workers get squeezed the hardest, and that in turn puts unbearable pressures on their families--so you have more divorce, more unwanted pregnancies (and abortions), more crime. It's pretty much impossible to have 1950s family values without 1950s economic policies.

I really liked your post, and agreed with almost all of it. But I strongly disagree with what you put in bold. Now, I know that it's probably just your opinion, but it is often presented as fact by political commentators. Economic freedoms are strongly correlated with large growth rates in GDP, and changes in economic freedom are even greater predictors of growth rates.

Now, what you're talking about has to do with inequality, which is a slightly different issue. Republicans generally concern themselves with growing the economic pie. Democrats generally concern themselves with how the pie is distributed, and don't worry too much about how fast the pie is growing, as long as it's getting bigger. This explains many (but not all, obviously) policy differences. Free trade (R issue) vs. fair trade or protectionism (D), lower taxes (R) vs. higher taxes (D), less welfare (R) vs. more welfare (D), environmentalism as a cost/benefit analysis (R) vs. conservation at all costs (D), etc. I'm obviously exaggerating the differences between R and D, but I did that because their actual policy differences are sometimes laughably similar.

Do you have some information on crime rates or divorce rates that have to do with the amount of government regulations, to back up your claim that raising government regulations lowers the crime and divorce rate? You might say "that's not what I meant," but when you claim that laissez-faire policies lead to high crime and divorce, that leads me to believe that the opposite of laissez-faire (ie. government regulation) has the opposite effect.


Yes, I'm talking about inequality. Given the characteristic distortions and blase yet obnoxious tone of your post, it's probably best to leave it at that.


I'm actually genuinely curious. I've not read the book yet, but my girlfriend was telling me that in Tipping Point (or maybe it was Freakonomics), the authors made the assertion that when abortion was made easier to obtain, crime rates dropped in large cities. I've never read it, so I can't assess this point as far as causation/correlation arguments, but that question reminded me of this point.

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Postby dajafi » Fri Jan 30, 2009 15:12:40

I've heard that Freakonomics argument about abortion, that "the aborted" probably would have had worse life outcomes based on the relatively dire circumstances of their parents. Seems plausible to me, though that wasn't really what I was referring to in my original point about the strains placed on working-class and working poor families by market-fundamentalist economic policies.

On another subject, it looks like Michael Steele might be the next head of the RNC. This could be a good thing for them--he's certainly less tied to the Bush/DeLay tradition than the other guys in the running.

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Postby Werthless » Fri Jan 30, 2009 15:18:33

dajafi wrote:
Werthless wrote:I really liked your post, and agreed with almost all of it. But I strongly disagree with what you put in bold. Now, I know that it's probably just your opinion, but it is often presented as fact by political commentators. Economic freedoms are strongly correlated with large growth rates in GDP, and changes in economic freedom are even greater predictors of growth rates.

Now, what you're talking about has to do with inequality, which is a slightly different issue. Republicans generally concern themselves with growing the economic pie. Democrats generally concern themselves with how the pie is distributed, and don't worry too much about how fast the pie is growing, as long as it's getting bigger. This explains many (but not all, obviously) policy differences. Free trade (R issue) vs. fair trade or protectionism (D), lower taxes (R) vs. higher taxes (D), less welfare (R) vs. more welfare (D), environmentalism as a cost/benefit analysis (R) vs. conservation at all costs (D), etc. I'm obviously exaggerating the differences between R and D, but I did that because their actual policy differences are sometimes laughably similar.

Do you have some information on crime rates or divorce rates that have to do with the amount of government regulations, to back up your claim that raising government regulations lowers the crime and divorce rate? You might say "that's not what I meant," but when you claim that laissez-faire policies lead to high crime and divorce, that leads me to believe that the opposite of laissez-faire (ie. government regulation) has the opposite effect.

Yes, I'm talking about inequality. Given the characteristic distortions and blase yet obnoxious tone of your post, it's probably best to leave it at that.

I thought you were making an empirical claim. If not, that's fine. I didn't mean to be obnoxious. When I write formally (so that my arguments aren't distorted or misinterpreted), it sometimes sounds awkward.

Oh, and I like this post a lot less. :( I know what it's like to have a long post go unresponded to, but next time I just won't engage you.

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Postby FTN » Fri Jan 30, 2009 18:30:03

Has this "Buy American" clause been discussed here?

What a train wreck of an idea.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Jan 30, 2009 18:40:32

FTN wrote:Has this "Buy American" clause been discussed here?

What a train wreck of an idea.


All we need to do now is make sure bankers make minimum wage and maybe make everyone join a union and GDP should be back to going up 3-4% annually like clockwork.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Jan 30, 2009 19:31:37

By the way, I'm pleased with the election of Steele as RNC Chair. Certainly the choice with the highest upside. Our chairman doesn't need to be a strategist, he should be a spokesman.

Steele isn't a dyed in the wool conservative, so that's probably a good thing too. I think it helped the Dems that even though Dean represented the left wing of the party arguably by 2005 when he became chairman, he certainly understood appealing to moderates from his time as governor of Vermont. Steele had to run in an extremely blue state in an awful year and put up a respectable performance. Hopefully that experience has taught him some lessons that can help us going forward.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Jan 30, 2009 20:48:40

So Daschle butchered his taxes too?

Maybe Obama's cabinet will start championing the flat tax.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Sat Jan 31, 2009 00:48:58

Undaunted, I will continue posting in here by myself...

Shot:

Obama: "My children's school was canceled today, because of what? Some ice," he said, according to the pool report. "As my children pointed out, in Chicago school is never canceled."

"When it comes to the weather, folks in Washington don't seem to be able to handle things."

(ed note: He's completely correct about that.)

Chaser:

The capital flew into a bit of a tizzy when, on his first full day in the White House, President Obama was photographed in the Oval Office without his suit jacket. There was, however, a logical explanation: Mr. Obama, who hates the cold, had cranked up the thermostat.

“He’s from Hawaii, O.K.?” said Mr. Obama’s senior adviser, David Axelrod, who occupies the small but strategically located office next door to his boss. “He likes it warm. You could grow orchids in there.”


Politico

Thank you, Politico, for allowing me to stop respecting the President's winter bonafides.

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Postby Werthless » Sat Jan 31, 2009 16:24:50

FTN wrote:Has this "Buy American" clause been discussed here?

What a train wreck of an idea.

It's smoot-hawley all over again. What idiots.

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Postby Werthless » Sat Jan 31, 2009 16:26:32

jerseyhoya wrote:So Daschle butchered his taxes too?

Maybe Obama's cabinet will start championing the flat tax.


It was only $128,000. I'm sure he's sorry, and he'll pay it now.

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Postby dajafi » Sat Jan 31, 2009 17:31:52

Sen. Gregg of New Hampshire is likely to be nominated as the next Secretary of Commerce. He'd be the third Republican in Obama's candidate.

New Hampshire's governor is a Democrat, so in theory Gregg's replacement plus Franken would get the Democrats to 60. But it sounds like Lynch, the NH governor, might appoint a Republican to fill out Gregg's term. Nate Silver points out here and here that this probably isn't a huge deal either way; myself, I sort of hope he does, particularly if it's Rudman or the woman Nate writes about in the second link.

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Postby allentown » Sat Jan 31, 2009 17:44:14

dajafi wrote:Sen. Gregg of New Hampshire is likely to be nominated as the next Secretary of Commerce. He'd be the third Republican in Obama's candidate.

New Hampshire's governor is a Democrat, so in theory Gregg's replacement plus Franken would get the Democrats to 60. But it sounds like Lynch, the NH governor, might appoint a Republican to fill out Gregg's term. Nate Silver points out here and here that this probably isn't a huge deal either way; myself, I sort of hope he does, particularly if it's Rudman or the woman Nate writes about in the second link.

I'd like to see him appoint a Dem and then end the farce by having Lieberman make good on his promise to switch to the Republican caucus to prevent the 60-vote majority.
We now know that Amaro really is running the Phillies. He and Monty seem to have ignored the committee.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Sat Jan 31, 2009 18:47:38

I like Judd Gregg a lot, and it's going to piss me off a whole lot if he takes Commerce. He's way too young to bail on the Senate. I guess he wants to go make money or something in a few years.

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Postby drsmooth » Sat Jan 31, 2009 21:44:25

jerseyhoya wrote:I like Judd Gregg a lot, and it's going to piss me off a whole lot if he takes Commerce. He's way too young to bail on the Senate. I guess he wants to go make money or something in a few years.


But he won almost a mil in a Powerball lottery in '05, at which time it was noted he was worth at least $2 million, & maybe as much as $9 mil.

Not bad for a guy whose political career started as a NH state gov't representative, the basic requirement of which is you should have a pulse.
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Postby dajafi » Mon Feb 02, 2009 13:04:15

Okay, I'm convinced: Tom Daschle's a scumbag

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Postby Werthless » Mon Feb 02, 2009 14:35:17

dajafi wrote:Okay, I'm convinced: Tom Daschle's a scumbag

What is the accepted protocol for poking innocent fun at Obama appointments? Is it too trite at this point to call it "change you can believe in?" Maybe a play on "hope" would be more interesting? How about:

"A Daschle of Change"

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Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Feb 02, 2009 14:38:17

An old friend of mine (we've known each other since 1st grade) is thinking of running against Rush Holt.
Be Bold!

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Postby kruker » Mon Feb 02, 2009 14:53:33

dajafi wrote:Okay, I'm convinced: Tom Daschle's a scumbag


Thanks for the link.
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