Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby Soren » Tue May 01, 2012 09:08:29

swishnicholson wrote:Angels won but, more importantly, Pujols now up to 98 PA without a home run.


I can't figure out how to get BR to search for worst OPS in a give stretch but this is the worst stretch of his career right? Not just in terms of XBH but in general he's hitting like a utility infielder.
Olivia Meadows, your "emotional poltergeist"

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby jamiethekiller » Tue May 01, 2012 09:26:37

So what you're saying is st. Louis is a steroid haven. Would never guessed that larussa teams are abusing like crazy!

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby JUburton » Tue May 01, 2012 10:15:22

Question: Is hit f/x data publicly available?

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby bleh » Tue May 01, 2012 10:18:21

The raw data is or was posted on mlb.com somewhere. Don't have the url handy but you can probably google it.

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby CFP » Tue May 01, 2012 10:28:53

Jon Heyman is hilarious

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Tue May 01, 2012 13:16:13

JUburton wrote:Question: Is hit f/x data publicly available?


Probably not the good stuff.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

--Will Carroll

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby my cousin mose » Tue May 01, 2012 13:31:21

Listening to Jamie Moyer being Interviewed by the Ripken Bros. on XM right now. Love that dude, love Cal too. Billy's OK.

Really want JM to retire as a Phillie somehow, or at least always be remembered as one. Sounds selfish, I know

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby Slowhand » Tue May 01, 2012 13:47:37

Slowhand wrote:Pretty surprised Eric Chavez has never made an All Star team.


Yet Ty Wigginton has.

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby BigEd76 » Tue May 01, 2012 13:57:55

jamiethekiller wrote:So what you're saying is st. Louis is a steroid haven. Would never guessed that larussa teams are abusing like crazy!


No way. Heaven was built on grit and guys like David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy and Skip Schumaker. They would never allow roided-up ex-Angels like Jim Edmonds, Troy Glaus, Scott Spiezio, Troy Percival...

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby BigEd76 » Tue May 01, 2012 18:27:55

AccuScore's playoff percentages as of May 1:

Braves = 63.9% chance of making the playoffs / 42.9% chance of winning the division
Phils = 57.2% / 34.9%
Nats = 39.1% / 19.6%
Mets = 4.6% / 1.6%
Marlins = 2.3% / 0.9%

The highest ones as of now:
Rangers = 99.5% / 99.5%
Rays = 95.6% / 65.2%
Tigers = 94.1% / 92.0%
Cardinals = 87.0% / 70.9%
Yankees = 82.6% / 26.3%
Giants = 77.0% / 56.6%

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Wed May 02, 2012 10:41:46

Both Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista have been stinky so far this year. Baseball is a curious game.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

--Will Carroll

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby Soren » Wed May 02, 2012 11:46:04

Adam Dunn April 2011:
.160/.300/.267 in 90 PAs, 31 K, 14 BB, 4 XBH

Adam Dunn April 2012:
.231/.368/.513 in 95 PAs, 34 K, 16 BB, 12 XBH.
Olivia Meadows, your "emotional poltergeist"

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed May 02, 2012 11:53:46

BigEd76 wrote:AccuScore's playoff percentages as of May 1:

Braves = 63.9% chance of making the playoffs / 42.9% chance of winning the division
Phils = 57.2% / 34.9%
Nats = 39.1% / 19.6%
Mets = 4.6% / 1.6%
Marlins = 2.3% / 0.9%

The highest ones as of now:
Rangers = 99.5% / 99.5%
Rays = 95.6% / 65.2%
Tigers = 94.1% / 92.0%
Cardinals = 87.0% / 70.9%
Yankees = 82.6% / 26.3%
Giants = 77.0% / 56.6%


Baseball prospectus has the phils at about 60%, barves at 53%.

Of course, barves are ahead in 3rd order standings.
Be Bold!

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby BigEd76 » Wed May 02, 2012 12:23:24

Another Rays #1 overall pick is in trouble with drugs. Tim Beckham was suspended 50 games for a second failed marijuana test

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby 1 » Wed May 02, 2012 12:54:50

BigEd76 wrote:Another Rays #1 overall pick is in trouble with drugs. Tim Beckham was suspended 50 games for a second failed marijuana test


Give him CalvinBall's number

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Wed May 02, 2012 15:02:58

Feels like the Roger Clemens trial could outlast the Roger Clemens career

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby swishnicholson » Wed May 02, 2012 15:05:57

smitty wrote:Both Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista have been stinky so far this year. Baseball is a curious game.


That's a funny way to put it.
"No woman can call herself free who does not control her own body."

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby FTN » Wed May 02, 2012 15:07:10

Grotewold wrote:Feels like the Roger Clemens trial could outlast the Roger Clemens career


didnt care about any of this before, but now that its still going on i hope he gets the chair if that is possible

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Wed May 02, 2012 15:08:47

FTN wrote:
Grotewold wrote:Feels like the Roger Clemens trial could outlast the Roger Clemens career


didnt care about any of this before, but now that its still going on i hope he gets the chair if that is possible


:lol:

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Re: Safe and Secure with Baseball Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Thu May 03, 2012 13:40:01

Very good article here by a Seattle writer (who is pretty good) about how baseball is an amusing game:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/m ... ak_in.html

Again, this isn't meant to minimize the fun that fans have with stats, or the cottage industry built up around the more advanced stats. I'm not poking fun at anyone's livelihood. But the thinking that these stats are dominating daily baseball life is just not accurate.

These stats are part -- one part -- of daily baseball decision-making.

So, anyone expecting a manager to start speaking about OPS and wOBA in a conversation about baseball is missing the point. These managers know baseball. All of them know baseball better than you do, or I do.

Doesn't mean we can't question their decision-making. Doesn't mean we can't ask why they do the things they do.

Yes, they are sometimes wrong. But that's because they are human -- not robots.

And those human managers all know about baseball. More importantly, they know about managing in baseball and the human subtleties that come with the job. The human politics that must be played. The pressures that younger players fall under versus the more experienced ones. How those pressures might impact daily play on an individual and overall lineup basis
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