I dug into a story I wrote from last year's general meetings concerning the trade of Brad Lidge to the Phillies. You want to talk about luck playing a factor in a baseball season? Take this: The Phillies had a unique advantage in the Lidge sweepstakes, because the Astros' new GM, Ed Wade, ran the Phillies from 1998 through 2005. He knew outfielder Michael Bourn, and he valued him much more than anyone else did. Bourn OPSed a horrendous .588 for the Astros this past year.
The Mets were interested in Lidge at the time, as a setup man for Lidge's Astros buddy Billy Wagner, but Wade wanted a package headed by either Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez. The Mets couldn't do that, because they very likely knew at that point that Gomez would be needed to acquire Johan Santana, and they weren't going to give up Martinez for someone they perceived as a setup man; they wouldn't even trade Martinez for Santana. Even Gomez, somewhat of a disappointment for the Twins, OPSed .656.
So the Phillies received a circumstantial discount, influenced by something entirely out of their control: Astros owner Drayton McLane's decision to hire Wade.
karn wrote:Here's the thing: no, Bourn's computer numbers didn't turn out looking good. But talking to a couple Astros fans...to a person they ALL said that he was running faster at the end of the season than he was at the beginning. I know Lidge was decent this year, but Bourn would likely LAP him in a foot race. We might be paying for that deal years down the road.
karn wrote:Here's the thing: no, Bourn's computer numbers didn't turn out looking good. But talking to a couple Astros fans...to a person they ALL said that he was running faster at the end of the season than he was at the beginning. I know Lidge was decent this year, but Bourn would likely LAP him in a foot race. We might be paying for that deal years down the road.