Review of the "Experts" postseason picks

by **meatball** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 16:13:19

Warszawa wrote:
After correctly predicting that the St. Louis Cardinals would win 2006 World Series in five games, that Kansas would defeat Memphis in March Madness (as of Selection Sunday), that Detroit would win the Stanley Cup (before the playoffs) and that Boston would win the NBA Championship in six games, sports simulation website WhatIfSports.com likes the Philadelphia Phillies to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays in seven games in this year's World Series. These teams are built similarly with great defense up the middle, strong front-end starting pitchers, a balanced lineup and a dominant bullpen (at least until Game 5 of the ALCS). Tampa Bay has homefield advantage, which has meant a lot to them this season, but, ultimately the edge goes to the Phillies because of their power. On average, Philadelphia hits three more homeruns in the series than the Rays.

WhatIfSports used its award-winning SimLeague Baseball simulation engine to "play" the World Series 10,001 times. Philadelphia wins just 51.2% of those series, with the most common occurrence being a seven-game series win by the Phillies (16.6% of all series have this result - a six-game Tampa Bay victory is next at 16.4%).

link

Eagles beat the Pats in the 2004 Super Bowl, with Donovan MVP. :cry:

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 16:15:48

Yeah, their little opening pat on the back doesn't work for me. If they've gotten four series right across all the major sports including college, how many have they gotten wrong?

by **Werthless** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 17:00:30

Phan In Phlorida wrote:
For the simulations, we chose to start Pat Burrell at DH when facing the Rays' lone left-handed starting pitcher, Scott Kazmir in Game 1, and Eric Bruntlett in left field. For the other games against the Rays' right-handers, we assumed Greg Dobbs would DH.

Charlie, you magnificent #$%! Coste's the monkeywrench in the simulator machine!

Why don't we just let Diamond Mind and SimLeague Baseball face off head to head. Or better yet, have the Phils and Rays actually play 10,000 serieseses.

Brunt as the extra hitter doesnt do the Phils a lot of favors.

What's really interesting to me is if the series goes to 7 games. The ESPN simulator predicts TB to win 351 times, and the Phils to only win 38 game 7s. That's just under 10%. In reality, no team should be that low to win any single game. If we started Adam Eaton game 7 against Scott Kazmir, we'd still win more than 25%.

by **SteveJeltzPhanClub** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:39:26

slamjim wrote:
Warszawa wrote:JIM CAPLE:
I pick the Rays to sweep because the American League is that much superior to the National League, which once again got smoked in interleague play and the All-Star Game. It's like the majors versus AAA.

Yeah, I remember the All-Star game this year. The NL was just demolished, smoked really. I had to cover my son's eyes because it was such a beating.

Jason Stark straight punking Caple in the video clip on this clip:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2 ... id=3659005

OH SNAP!!!!

by **theycallmeSPIKE** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 14:06:27

SteveJeltzPhanClub wrote:
slamjim wrote:
Warszawa wrote:JIM CAPLE:
I pick the Rays to sweep because the American League is that much superior to the National League, which once again got smoked in interleague play and the All-Star Game. It's like the majors versus AAA.

Yeah, I remember the All-Star game this year. The NL was just demolished, smoked really. I had to cover my son's eyes because it was such a beating.

Jason Stark straight punking Caple in the video clip on this clip:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2 ... id=3659005

OH SNAP!!!!

I can see why Caple is a writer, and not a TV analyst.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 14:18:57

theycallmeSPIKE wrote:
SteveJeltzPhanClub wrote:
slamjim wrote:
Warszawa wrote:JIM CAPLE:
I pick the Rays to sweep because the American League is that much superior to the National League, which once again got smoked in interleague play and the All-Star Game. It's like the majors versus AAA.

Yeah, I remember the All-Star game this year. The NL was just demolished, smoked really. I had to cover my son's eyes because it was such a beating.

Jason Stark straight punking Caple in the video clip on this clip:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2 ... id=3659005

OH SNAP!!!!

I can see why Caple is a writer, and not a TV analyst.

Indeed. What's up with his face? I like the way he keeps glancing over at Stark at the beginning of the video.

by **BuddyGroom** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 14:56:09

From the Wednesday Series previews, which I read just before the game last night:

Tom Boswell, Washington Post, Rays in 7
Dan Connolly, Baltimore Sun, Rays in 7
And Peter Schmuck of the Sun was nice enough to write a column about how he's rooting for the Rays.

by 1 » Thu Oct 23, 2008 15:06:59

mozartpc27 wrote:
theycallmeSPIKE wrote:
SteveJeltzPhanClub wrote:
slamjim wrote:
Warszawa wrote:JIM CAPLE:
I pick the Rays to sweep because the American League is that much superior to the National League, which once again got smoked in interleague play and the All-Star Game. It's like the majors versus AAA.

Yeah, I remember the All-Star game this year. The NL was just demolished, smoked really. I had to cover my son's eyes because it was such a beating.

Jason Stark straight punking Caple in the video clip on this clip:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2 ... id=3659005

OH SNAP!!!!

I can see why Caple is a writer, and not a TV analyst.

Indeed. What's up with his face? I like the way he keeps glancing over at Stark at the beginning of the video.

his eyes are freaking me out, jose reyes-style

by **pacino** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 17:30:04

1 wrote:but the rays have cliff floyd!

that guy just wins

by 1 » Sat Nov 01, 2008 23:32:31

pacino wrote:
1 wrote:but the rays have cliff floyd!

that guy just wins

you're thinking of loduca

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Nov 02, 2008 00:59:36

Warszawa wrote:JIM CAPLE:
I pick the Rays to sweep because the American League is that much superior to the National League, which once again got smoked in interleague play and the All-Star Game. It's like the majors versus AAA.

I'm still loving the logic of this statement. I could care less about interleague records; the American League has such an advantage there with having an extra player in the DH. But anyway, it's not like the AL has dominated the World Series lately.

2008: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NL
2007: Boston Red Sox AL
2006: St Louis Cardinals NL
2005: Chicago White Sox AL
2004: Boston Red Sox AL
2003: Florida Marlins NL
2002: Anaheim Angels AL
2001: Diamondbackbacks NL

So of the last eight champions: 4 AL and 4 NL. I mean sure, right past that you have several AL wins in a row, but it's all the Yankees.

by **gusmoney** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 00:06:28

Kruk just picked the Phillies to repeat in '09 as his big bold prediction on ESPN's three hour Baseball Tonight extravaganza.

by **TenuredVulture** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 00:30:49

gusmoney wrote:Kruk just picked the Phillies to repeat in '09 as his big bold prediction on ESPN's three hour Baseball Tonight extravaganza.

I agree with Mr. Kruk.

by **cartersDad26** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 09:59:53

OMG, baseball tonight was 3 hours last night? i was watching Wall-E. doh. i must be coming off a WFC.

by **BigEd76** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:59:59

well yeah, it's not like they won the World Series last year or anything, and we know that World Champions like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets and Dodgers always get 20-minute segments...

by **cartersDad26** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 13:12:17

BAH. F 'em all.

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Review of the "Experts" postseason picks