JOBOGGI

Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Tue Dec 11, 2018 00:06:12

Essentially.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Tue Dec 11, 2018 02:36:55

Repeat after me

I WILL NOT SELL EXCELLENT COMPANIES.

I WILL ONLY BUY INTO A BEAR MARKET when extreme fear levels show up.

Then I will buy excellent companies only. I only need excellent companies in my portfolio.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Wed Dec 12, 2018 00:38:20

1. Imgn passed both phase 1 studies antibody drug conjugates targeting key proteins.

2. Phase III completion is five + years away. However IMGN is directly on target.

3. Details about both drugs prn.

4. The stock price did not budge. Realistically, it is early to add these two to future earnings.

5. Phase III readout comes in April. This is their fast tracked ovarian cancer drug. That will be the next catalyst.

It is also a binary event.

2. Tsla short squeeze, in this case a short squeeze to the death is in progress.

Note how the chart of TSLA looks NOTHING like the rest of the market.

In other news TSLA is saying they can discern traffic light colors and what not on the way to full automated driving.

WAYMO is still using pro drivers, and the same beta testers passengers in Phoenix.

You would think WAYMO is ahead
However they are NOT fully automated and picking up paying customers as we were led to believe.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Thu Dec 13, 2018 13:23:28

1. Tsla buy on the dip. Major short squeeze ahead.
2. Imgn with the next catalyst in April, Imgn remains a buy. Buy on the dip. It very reliably moves to 10 from below 6. With the phase III study reading out in April it should move well beyond all time high of 13 in that time frame of April 2019.

3. Go short on the Donald. I would think someone takes Donald bets. Donald stock is going too zero.

4. Posted because the short interest in the position tsla will also go to zero.

The Shorts missed one of history's most disruptive moments.

Elon is changing the way to a trillion dollar market does business.

We are at gigafactory 3. There is a need for 20 right now, and many more in the future.

TSLA is fostering competition in order to make sure the changeover occurs.

The notion that competition is coming is the best thing.

Shorts have been right on auto startups for 90 years. This is the exception.

The S&P PIERCED support but closed above. The Russell 2000

CONTINUES to routinely find lower lows.

Edited after COB.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Fri Dec 14, 2018 19:49:19

Aha, one very respected talking head said, if we 2640 holds we rally.

We lost 50 points on the S&P, and the VIX and Trin just yawned.at the close we are at 2599.

The move to the 2200-2400 range is coming.

Stay in touch with the market, but realize the bottom will come between now and March somewhere.

We finally closed below the interim low after piercing it earlier in the week.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Fri Dec 14, 2018 22:17:07

Earnings eventually drive the market, around a large tendency to overshoot the high and low valuations.

Some see earnings at 2-5%, others see them higher. The lower range would tank to he market.

The market looks about 6 months ahead. The market says down. The yield curve says down.

After the fed tightens a few notches things generally head down.

There are excesses in borrowing and valuations. The valuations are better but they were WORSE than the 1929 valuations.

Cramer talks to the CEOs. They see a slowdown.

I SEE CHEERLEADERS CALLING THE MARKET headed up. When that happens the market invariably heads DOWN.

ONLY BUY WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS SELLING. (HIGH VIX AND TRIN)

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby Woody » Fri Dec 14, 2018 22:49:16

You’re an animal
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Fri Dec 14, 2018 22:55:51

I am human.

No soup for you.

There are as many cheerleaders as in 2000. Not a good sign. Could we go back to 666 as we did in the internet crash and the financial stimulated crash that led to the great recession?

It just makes you wonder.

Definitely going down another 10%.

We will reassess when we get there.

Remember cheerleaders in a bear market will lose you money.

Buy on the dark days when VIX is at least 25, and then sell into the dead cat bounce.

When the VIX gets to 45 and the TRIN at 4, and you have visions of Mark Haynes, then BUY BUY BUY.

Mark Haynes passed while in his saddle. He famously called the 2009 Mark Haynes bottom.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:33:11

The market, in the worst case can reach bear territory this week.

So note that.

The earliest we could see a crescendo SELLOFF is later in the week.

That would be the time to buy. That day may be anywhere between this week and March, there is no way to know.

If the fed raises rates that day will be sooner than later and vice versa.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 17, 2018 17:03:08

The fed is widely expected to increase . 25 % on Wednesday. They held steady last month.

The fed reveals their plan in advance to keep the markets informed.

The market fear indices are preparing for some serious pain

This is the best week yet to see capitulation selling.

There is no rush to buy. However if the fear indices spike from here it is time to buy as a trade.

If we find ourselves at 2200, then I would buy long term.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 17, 2018 17:34:29

Keep in mind that if you get to the best results you are buying at the best time.

Warren Buffett gets the best results. There is no doubt that Warren is getting ready to make massive buys, and since his time horizon seems infinite, he probably already started buying.

As a small investor you can choose to wait for the BEST DAYS to buy.

There are best days to buy, as Warren tells you buy when everyone else is selling.

Unquestionably waiting for a VIX of 45-50 is a very good idea.

Adjusted for inflation the cape-10 or shiller pe is at 28. It is now not as severe as the 1929 valuations. The mean is 16.5 and the median is 15.5.

Oh.

After nine years or work the market fell to the median in March 2009.

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

We are WAY up there now.

Drawing a set of future graphs you can see the market gradually reverting BACK to the mean WAY down there.

You know what they say about means, and standard deviations.

( If you don't just dollar cost average the SPY, EXCEPT in times like these where it is obvious the market has a ways to go DOWN. In those times holding cash is the way to go until the HUGE SELLOFF.)

I almost forgot, today's CLOSING low was THE CLOSING low for the year. The year low was NOT SEEN as support AT ALL by the market.

In the follow me market, the Russell 2000 found the 20% down level, known as a bear market.

Check the two charts, russell2000 and S&P.

One follows the other.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Mon Dec 17, 2018 21:01:42

Recalculating, fair value is in the 2000 to 2200 range.

Selloffs ABOVE 2200 should be considered the next step down.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Tue Dec 18, 2018 16:15:28

Imgn is following the market. So WAIT to ad, on the crescendo SELLOFF.

Three POS studies
Institutions
Motley fool

Stock goes down

It is the overall market

Wait to add.

This is going to be the mother of most selloffs so two accounts and don't trade past 330. That will insure access.

Cash is king. Tsla is not a good hiding place either.

Good news and the stock pulls back.

It is the market

In other news the market opened sharply higher, only to turn to the dark side.

Don't sell

Get ready to BUY BUY BUY

sometime between now and March

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Tue Dec 18, 2018 16:22:57

Volatility is UP despite a flat market.

Hold your fire, a VIX OF 25 means the market will sell hard on some bad news.

Wait for a VIX of 45 and a trin of four.

Close to that will be fine. On those days when the old money comes out and buys things move VERY FAST.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Tue Dec 18, 2018 22:24:03

Lathrop calif

900000 sq ft factory foundry nearing completion.

Gearing up to support the y. More than likely. Certainly you can build cars or boring co skates in a less than giga sized factory.

Lathrop is JUST off the lower bay.

The uptick in production is going to be MORE pronounced in 2019/20.

Lathrop, Sparks, fremont, Shanghai, all tsla locations. Tsla expanding Fremont to near giga size.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 08:29:43

The skate thing is out. Current design has an electric car capable of doing 150 fitted with a set of equipment.

This is a boring company alert.

Launch today of next gen gps. There was a time a few years ago that ULA GOT all this work.

If everything works out there are five launches today.

In the regular world when a biotech stock goes down after three positive studies you sell. Now hopefully you realize it is the broad market giving you an opportunity to buy more shares of Imgn on the crescendo SELLOFF.

This is why I love biotech.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby azrider » Wed Dec 19, 2018 13:52:02

Appears the tunnel didn't get the best reviews. I'm a pretty big musk fan and wouldn't get too discouraged as he often gets a little to ahead of himself. He has been wiling to take chances even if it some of it eventually just helps push the needle of technology. personally I'm betting underground > air for short/intermediate transportation.

https://gizmodo.com/like-riding-on-a-di ... 197517/amp

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 16:19:58

It was bumpy, that is an easy fix. Very small tunnel. An X is never bumpy, the tunnel finishing machine needs some work.

In other news the fed moved up to 2.25-2.5. that quarter point will invert the yield curve.

The market was shaken when I Finally started long tossing. This hurts a lot.

Throwing muscles

Lat
Subscapularis
Pec major
Pec minor
Teres major

These internally rotate.

Have been working all the muscles but not throwing. Then the pain changed.

Quick fix, stretch the throwing muscles. Mainly the lat and teres in this case. But also subscapularis. For the sub stretch check athleanx.


Many stretches do the same thing. Use a theraband or gravity. Strechting the lat/ teres 2-3 times a day.

How do you spell relief.

Find the nearest door jam and hang. Move into external rotation.

Count until the muscle releases, or don't count I don't care.

Repeat prn.

This is painful.

After 45 pitches the internal rotators tighten

Solution stretch them, and then exercise them along with exercise of the external rotators - infra, Supra, and teres minor.

Don't forget the long head of the triceps. Check athleanx for the stretches. He is the one best source for everything.Go to PTs on the web, not a Yahoo with a web site. Pete's best single video treat these four areas if you have pain when lifting. Anterior, rotators cuff, lat/teresmajor, and scapular stabilizers in the center.

I REALLY WISH someone had told me that when I was 12. Someone sent me from third. Too much spaghetti.

The guy was waiting for me. He changed the tag from high to low to flip me and that was that.

All-star pitcher got worse each year. Oh well.

Work on those four areas over the winter. Start long tossing two weeks before tryouts then open some eyes!!!!

Focus on letting the stress from long tossing focus on your armpit. That is where the sub and the lat attach.

If a few stretches do not clear the pain STOP. Go to a sports medicine clinic. For massage go to phila massage. They are great.

Finally

Hold hold hold

Like all four recent space launches hold hold hold your new money in cash.

Wait for the WORST fear of the decade, if not the millennium.

Then BUY BUY BUY.

DO LIKE THE OLD MONEY

they have more than enough money. So they hoard cash for those very special days where everything is DEEPLY DISCOUNTED.

It is a sale!!! At the end of last year I bought my cover the butt length wool coat, reversible to a rain cost from j press. Megasteal

this waiting period includes imgn and tsla which are responding to market forces, and not their own fundamentals.

Brk. B
Aapl
Nvda
And the rest of the FAANG

BUY THOSE IF your FIVE TO TEN YEARS OF BUYING THE spy are up.

Remember, just buy the SPY with that $400 a month. Your employer will likely match.

When you totally forgot about the $400 because of raises, start to focus on individual stocks.

You never have to stray from well known names.

Study Warren buffet, and just do that. You will retire early. Then you can listen to Jimmy Buffett all day long in the bvi. ( Better yet put on Bob Marley)

About imgn, double it at the crescendo sell off, and not before.
Last edited by joboggi on Wed Dec 19, 2018 17:16:42, edited 6 times in total.

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Dec 19, 2018 16:35:07

Perhaps the most bizarre post in this thread.
Be Bold!

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Re: JOBOGGI

Postby joboggi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 17:08:18

A tenured vulture.

Oh no

I can't imagine who would tenure a vulture

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