Joe Sheehan wrote: Phillies/Rockies

There are enough similarities between the 2007 versions of these teams and the ones that take the field tomorrow to consider this a rematch, as more than half of the starting lineups come back. Where the teams are different is even similar, as each features a stronger starting rotation and a weaker bullpen than were present two years ago. The Phillies remain reliant on their left-handed power core, while the Rockies play strong defense behind a ball-in-play staff.

The Rockies won the matchup handily two years ago, sweeping the Phillies in part because they matched up so well with them. See, the Phillies rely heavily on the home run, then and now. This year they batted .286 on balls in play, 14th in the NL. The Rockies defend balls in play very well, ranking fourth in the NL in Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and they don't give up home runs, posting the second-highest groundball percentage in the major leagues. They keep the walks down as well; just five NL teams gave out fewer unintentional free passes. By keeping the ball in the park, turning balls in play into outs and limiting walks, the Rockies are a difficult team to score upon.

In 2007, the Phillies hit five home runs in three games, but all were solo shots, and they scored just three runs outside of those homers. If anything, this team seems almost more likely to suffer that fate, as it now has a dysfunctional lineup—a leadoff hitter who posted a .296 OBP—that makes it more likely that homers will come with no one on base and less likely that runs will be scored in other ways. This is a terrible matchup for the Phillies who, even with an improved rotation, may not be able to score enough runs to win. They'll need their starters, which in a postseason featuring fantastic rotations that match up with anyone, to be great if they're to win.

Of course, the potential for trouble scoring runs is just one reason the Phillies need strong starts. Their bullpen is a mess, a mix of injured pitchers, ineffective pitchers, converted starters, and Ryan Madson. While it may not be a disaster—over a week, any bullpen can be good—the potential for late drama in these games will be high. The Rockies' bullpen, which went through a lot of turnover throughout the season, has been effective in its current form. Imports Rafael Betancourt and Joe Beimel have pitched well as Rockies, and rookie Matt Daley was very effective after his call-up. Nevertheless, the late innings of this series are likely to be very interesting, as these are the two least effective pens in the postseason, pending the Tigers' entrance.

Phillies fans love my opinions of Ryan Howard, so let's just reduce the entire discussion to one line: .226/.310/.444 career, .207/.298/.356 in 2009. Jim Tracy has to bring that guy to the plate as often as possible in this series. Any time he allows the other guy, the .307/.409/.661 one, the one who hit .319/.395/.691 this year, to bat in a game-critical situation, he deserves to lose, because that guy is absolutely devastating. It really is that simple. Charlie Manuel isn't going to take Howard out, so if Tracy elects to give up 450 points of OPS in any situation that matters, he's just this side of throwing the game. Tracy is the one manager in this round who can justify carrying an extra relief pitcher, presumably Randy Flores, solely for the purpose of facing one batter. Flores, though a journeyman who threw just 12 innings in the majors this year, would have more use to the team than carrying an extra long man such as Jason Hammel.

I keep coming back to the offensive matchup, and the result of that 2007 series. The two teams played in April and August this year, before and after as far as the Rockies were concerned. In the second series, the Phillies scored 13 runs, hitting five homers and batting .293 on balls in play, so it's not set in stone that they won't score. Still, I think that's the most likely scenario. Rockies in four.

phils2008champs wrote:

Wizlah wrote:now that we've horrendously butt-raped them, shouldn't the phils really start workin' over their knees? I'm not to sure where this hideous revenge fantasy made real is gonna finish up, but I don't want these $#@! running away 'fore we're done.

Save it for game 3 (completion of the sweep).

joe table wrote:Where are these Jim Tracy incredible manager powers I've been hearing about